I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.The ongoing situation in the Middle East continues to impact the global economy, with Hong Kong stocks opening down 419 points, the Hang Seng Index reporting 24,532 points, and tech stocks generally under pressure. Japanese and South Korean stocks fell over 4%, and U.S. stock futures also declined. International oil prices rose, while gold prices fell. English Silicon Intelligence and Eli Lilly reached a cooperation agreement, with stock prices rising 15%. Analysts predict that the Hang Seng Index may further test the 24,000-point level
The situation in the Middle East has continued for a month without resolution, with the conflict escalating and evolving into an economic crisis impacting global energy and raw material supplies. The Hang Seng Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, erasing its gains for the year, and as of last Friday, it has dropped a total of 678 points or 2.65%. Analysts point out that Hong Kong stocks are continuously affected by multiple macro factors, with significant short-term adjustment pressure, and the subsequent trend will highly depend on changes in geopolitical situations, with a further test of the 24,000-point mark expected this week.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has opened a new front, with Houthi forces joining in the fight against Israel, driving international oil prices upward, with Brent crude and New York crude both rising over 3%; meanwhile, international gold prices are under pressure, with spot gold prices dropping 1.4% to about $4,432 this morning. The Asia-Pacific stock markets opened lower, with Japanese and South Korean stocks both falling over 4%. In U.S. stock futures, the three major indices fell about 0.6% to 0.7%.
In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index opened down 419 points at 24,532 points. Technology stocks were generally under pressure, with Tencent (700) down 1.7%; Alibaba (9988) down 3.6%; Meituan (3690) down 2.6%; JD.com (9618) down 3%; and Xiaomi (1810) also down over 2%. Among blue-chip stocks, CITIC Limited (267) and BYD (1211) fell 5.2% and 4.6%, respectively.
Aluminum and oil-related stocks moved against the trend, with China Hongqiao (1378) rising over 6%; CNOOC (883) and PetroChina (857) rising 2% and 1.7%, respectively, while China National Petroleum (632) rose over 7%. In the oil service sector, Shandong Molong (568) and Bakin Oilfield Services (2178) rose over 7% and 12%, respectively.
Insilico Medicine and Eli Lilly Reach Cooperation
In individual stock news, Insilico Medicine (3696) announced a global pipeline licensing and AI drug development collaboration with Eli Lilly, qualifying for an upfront payment of $115 million, with further payments upon achieving development, regulatory, and commercialization milestones, bringing the total transaction value to approximately $2.75 billion; additionally, Insilico Medicine will receive tiered royalties based on future sales. The stock opened at $65.75, up 15%.
Zeng Yongjian: Hang Seng Index May Test 24,000 Points
Zeng Yongjian, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association, stated that the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still fermenting, coupled with a rise in global risk aversion sentiment, leading funds to reduce holdings in risk assets, resulting in an overall downward trend in Hong Kong stocks.
Regarding the confirmation of attacks on two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE by Iran over the weekend, major institutions indicated that rising commodity prices will pressure the global economy. Zeng Yongjian noted that high international oil prices and other energy prices further raise market concerns about a potential recession in the global economy due to rising energy costs, while the risk of a U.S. economic recession coexists with rising inflation expectations. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year, and there is even a risk of rate hikes, making it difficult for the Hong Kong stock market to remain unaffected, with a further test of the 24,000-point mark likely
Chen Le-yi: The Hang Seng Index Must Stabilize Above the 250-Day Moving Average
Chen Le-yi, Assistant Manager of the Research Department at Cinda International, stated that the international geopolitical situation may fluctuate again, and the market currently holds a wait-and-see attitude towards mainland policies. Corporate earnings are inevitably challenged in the short term by rising commodity prices and shipping costs, coupled with the lack of stable inflows from the north, which constrains upward space. The Hang Seng Index must stabilize above the 250-day moving average, around 25,100 points; otherwise, there will still be downward pressure.
Looking ahead to this week, China will announce the March PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index); companies such as Lanqi Technology (6809), Zhipu (2513), Mingming is Busy (1768), and Biran Technology (6082) will intensively announce their earnings; new stocks such as Jishijiao (6636) and Huayan Robotics (1021) will also be listed this week; Hong Kong and U.S. stocks will be closed on Friday for Good Friday.
On the external front, the U.S. will announce key economic data such as March non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate; G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors will hold a meeting to discuss the release of strategic petroleum reserves.
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