--- title: "The US-Israel war breaks the \"historical script\" Deutsche Bank: US stock trends deviate from past patterns, CTA funds may continue to reduce holdings" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281083843.md" description: "Against the backdrop of the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, global markets are gradually deviating from historical patterns. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the S&P 500 index has fallen approximately 7.4% over the past 20 trading days, exceeding the average decline of 6.1% following historical geopolitical conflicts. Although the market rebounded when Trump signaled negotiations, investor confidence remains fragile, institutional investors have reduced risk exposure, and CTA funds may continue to decrease their holdings. Market sentiment is tense, with the VIX index closing above 30, indicating a high level of market vigilance" datetime: "2026-03-30T22:26:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281083843.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281083843.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281083843.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281083843.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281083843.md) # The US-Israel war breaks the "historical script" Deutsche Bank: US stock trends deviate from past patterns, CTA funds may continue to reduce holdings According to Zhitong Finance APP, against the backdrop of the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, global markets are gradually deviating from the "historical script." A month ago, when the war broke out, many institutional investors generally expected this geopolitical event to end quickly and bet that the stock market would recover in the short term. This judgment is mainly based on historical experience. Statistics from Deutsche Bank's strategy team show that during past geopolitical shocks, the S&P 500 index typically took about 16 trading days to hit bottom, followed by a recovery period of approximately 109 days. However, this average is significantly influenced by the extreme situation following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, during which the S&P 500 index took over five and a half years to fully recover. ![WeChat Screenshot_20260330171155.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774906285355894.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) So far, market trends have begun to deviate from this pattern. Last Friday marked the 20th trading day since the outbreak of the conflict, and since the close on February 27, the S&P 500 index has cumulatively fallen by about 7.4%, exceeding the historical average decline of 6.1% following geopolitical conflicts, indicating that this shock is more profound. ![WeChat Screenshot_20260330171143.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774906295191139.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Although there was a brief "buying on dips" rebound in the early trading session on Monday after U.S. President Trump signaled progress in negotiations, the upward momentum could not be sustained, showing that investor confidence remains fragile. From a funding perspective, institutional investors have significantly reduced their risk exposure. Data from Deutsche Bank shows that active investors currently have their stock positions underweight, but there is still room for further reduction. Meanwhile, systematic strategy funds, including CTAs, have lowered their stock allocations to below neutral levels for the first time since July. If the market does not rebound or volatility continues to rise, these funds may continue to reduce their holdings. Market sentiment indicators also show that tensions are rising. The S&P 500 volatility index VIX, known as the "fear index," closed above 30 on Monday, a level typically seen as indicating that the market is on high alert. 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