---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together, signals of U.S. economic recession flash red, Trump says he is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281184194.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising 1.01%, S&P 500 futures up 0.98%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.94%. Trump stated that he is willing to end military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, prioritizing the weakening of Iran's naval power. Walmart's recession signals have soared to levels seen during the 2008 crisis, indicating that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a sharp decline"
datetime: "2026-03-31T12:13:59.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281184194.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281184194.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281184194.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together, signals of U.S. economic recession flash red, Trump says he is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of March 31 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 1.01%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.98%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.94%.

![11.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774958677439444.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.15%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.93%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.59%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.66%.

![12.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774958686698571.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.12%, priced at $103.00 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.16%, priced at $107.22 per barrel.

![13.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774958694736804.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**Trump says he is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.** According to reports, Trump told his aides that he is willing to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed. The report cites U.S. government officials saying that Trump and his aides recently assessed that if action were taken to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the duration of the conflict would exceed his preset timeline of 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore, Trump decided that the U.S. should first achieve its "main goal, which is to weaken Iran's naval power and missile reserves," while gradually easing current hostilities and pressuring Iran through diplomatic means to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. government officials stated that if these efforts fail, the U.S. will push its allies in Europe and the Gulf region to take the lead in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. They said Trump could also choose to take military action, but "this is not his immediate priority." Additionally, reports indicate that some Gulf countries, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, hope the U.S. will continue the war against Iran. The UAE is "strongly pushing" for U.S. ground operations, and Kuwait and Bahrain also support this stance.

**Walmart signals red! U.S. recession signals soar to levels seen during the 2008 crisis.** Strategist Jim Paulsen's indicators related to Walmart's stock show that the U.S. economy is about to sharply decline. The Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) measures the retail giant's stock price (up 10.9% year-to-date) against the S&P Global Luxury Index (SPGLGUN, down 14.8% year-to-date). Paulsen believes that the sharp rise in the WRS index may indicate a potential economic recession or slowdown, similar to the situation before the last four U.S. recessions. The WRS is currently close to its highest recorded level, which occurred during the 2008-09 financial crisis He stated: "As retail purchasing trends shift towards discount stores, WRS increasingly shows a cautious attitude towards the U.S. economy, indicating that pressure on middle- and low-income consumers may be increasing. I estimate that the economy will avoid recession this year, but I am increasingly convinced that the U.S. economy is experiencing a severe slowdown, which will ultimately require additional economic policy easing measures and interest rate cuts to curb this trend."

**"Growth panic" overwhelms "inflation anxiety," Fed rate cut expectations reignited.** As market focus shifts to concerns that the conflict in Iran may exacerbate economic slowdown, traders are abandoning bets on Fed rate hikes. Earlier last week, the futures market had fully priced in one rate hike before the end of the year, and until last Friday, the market still believed the likelihood of a rate hike was very high. However, by Monday, market sentiment quickly reversed, with traders at one point believing the probability of a rate cut before the December meeting reached 20%. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated during a speech at Harvard University that the central bank is almost powerless against supply-side shocks (such as the surge in oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict). This statement alleviated market concerns about the Fed being forced to tighten monetary policy to curb accelerating inflation, prompting traders to begin factoring in the possibility of a rate cut within the year, although the probability remains low.

**Goldman Sachs supports gold in a bearish market: Fed rate cuts and central bank gold purchases will drive gold prices to $5,400.** Despite recent sell-offs in gold prices, Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices will resume their upward trend by the end of 2026. Analysts Rina Thomas and Dan Struyven noted in their report that the medium-term outlook for gold remains solid, as ongoing purchases by central banks and two expected rate cuts in the U.S. this year could push gold prices to $5,400 per ounce. They stated that in the short term, gold prices still face "tactical downside risks," and if energy supply shocks worsen, gold prices could drop to $3,800 per ounce. Nevertheless, if the Iran war prompts countries to accelerate their exit from "traditional Western assets" for diversification, there remains significant upside potential for gold prices.

**Professional institution FGE warns: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could rise to $200!** According to energy market consulting firm FGE NexantECA, if the situation of the Strait of Hormuz being nearly closed due to the Iran war continues for six to eight weeks, oil prices could soar to $150 or $200 per barrel. The company's honorary chairman Fereidun Fesharaki stated in an interview on Tuesday: "100 million barrels of oil are unable to circulate each week, and 400 million barrels of oil are unable to circulate each month. Therefore, for a period of time, these losses will have an astronomical impact on the market." Fesharaki believes that verbal interventions, including Trump's comments about potentially ending the conflict, have little effect, pointing out that the reality of supply disruptions will ultimately drive up prices.

**Over 30 days, a surge of 35%! U.S. gasoline prices return to $4 for the first time in over three years.** Due to the Middle East war causing fuel costs to soar, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. has risen to over $4 per gallon, breaking this level for the first time since August 2022. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that the average retail price of regular unleaded gasoline nationwide rose to $4.018 per gallon on Monday Since the outbreak of military conflicts between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28, the average price of gasoline in the United States has surged by more than $1—before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the average price of gasoline was $2.98 per gallon, an increase of 35%. This increase is comparable to some of the most severe price hikes in the past 20 years, and the speed of this increase is even faster than the spike in oil prices at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

## Individual Stock News

**Microsoft (MSFT.US) plans to invest $1 billion in Thailand over the next two years for cloud computing and AI infrastructure.** On March 31, the Thai government stated in a statement that Microsoft plans to invest $1 billion in Thailand over the next two years for cloud computing services and artificial intelligence infrastructure development. The statement noted that this investment will also include enhancing the digital skills of the Thai workforce. Prior to this investment announcement, several data center investments had already been made to support AI development. As the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, Thailand is currently accelerating the advancement of data centers, electronics industries, and power generation-related projects.

**Nebius (NBIS.US) expands its European computing landscape! Establishes a super data center in Finland.** Cloud computing service provider Nebius announced on Tuesday that, with the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing power, the company is advancing its rapid expansion in Europe and will build a new AI data center in Finland. The data center is located in Lappeenranta, Finland, with a maximum capacity of 310 megawatts, and the project is expected to be valued at over $10 billion. The company stated that once operational, this data center will become one of the largest data centers in Europe, with preliminary services expected to be offered to customers starting in 2027. As of the time of publication, Nebius's stock rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Unilever (UL.US) is close to completing the sale of its food business to McCormick (MKC.US), which could become the largest deal in both companies' history.** Unilever announced that negotiations to sell most of its food business to spice manufacturer McCormick have entered the final stages, with a formal announcement of the deal expected later on Tuesday. Unilever stated in a press release that it plans to divest most of its food business for $15.7 billion in cash combined with McCormick stock, excluding certain operational entities such as those in India. After the transaction is completed, Unilever and its shareholders will hold 65% of the merged company's shares. This deal represents the largest transaction in the history of both companies. The transaction will help Unilever transform into a leading player in the global beauty, personal care, and home care sectors, while propelling McCormick to become a giant in the global spices, seasonings, and sauces industry. As of the time of publication, McCormick's stock rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Ticket prices have risen to $750,000! Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US) narrows Q4 net loss by 17%, with Delta spacecraft's first test next month becoming a "lifeline."** Virgin Galactic released its Q4 earnings report for the fiscal year 2025. The financial report showed that due to the commercial flight vacuum period caused by the retirement of the first-generation spacecraft VSS Unity, the company's Q4 revenue was only $312,000, below analysts' average expectation of $360,000; however, profit performance exceeded market expectations, with the Q4 net loss significantly narrowing to $63 million, an improvement of about 17% compared to the net loss of $76 million in the same period of 2024 The diluted loss per share for the quarter was $0.98, better than Wall Street's previous expectation of a loss per share between $1.12 and $1.51. According to the company's latest strategic roadmap, Virgin Galactic expects to conduct its first suborbital test flight in the third quarter of 2026 and aims to return to commercialization in the fourth quarter of the same year. To further optimize future unit economics, the company also announced an increase in the price of a single ticket to $750,000, approximately $100,000 higher than the previous price, aiming to leverage the Delta spacecraft's high turnover rate and gross margin to achieve positive cash flow by 2027. CEO Michael Colglazier confirmed that production of the first Delta-class spacecraft is nearing completion, with plans to officially launch critical ground testing in April 2026. As of the time of writing, Virgin Galactic's stock rose over 9% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00 - U.S. March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Beijing time 22:00 - U.S. February JOLTs Job Openings

Beijing time the next day 01:10 - 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas Federal Reserve President Esther George speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook

Beijing time the next day 03:00 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks on stablecoins

Beijing time the next day 03:10 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at CBA Live 2026 event

## Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: Nike (NKE.US)

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