--- title: "Mainland China's official manufacturing PMI for March exceeded expectations. Citigroup: First quarter economic growth forecast is likely to be revised upward" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281323211.md" description: "The manufacturing PMI for March in mainland China is 50.4, exceeding market expectations, indicating that economic growth is likely to be revised upward. Citigroup pointed out that rising oil prices may lead to an increase in the producer price index and inflation, predicting that the PPI will turn from decline to rise in March. JPMorgan believes that improvements in various PMI indicators suggest that the real economy is stabilizing, but conflicts in the Middle East may affect future data. The unofficial manufacturing PMI is 50.8, which, although lower than expected, is still in the expansion range. The overall economic growth target is 4.5% to 5%, facing challenges from rising costs" datetime: "2026-04-01T07:45:25.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281323211.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281323211.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281323211.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281323211.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281323211.md) # Mainland China's official manufacturing PMI for March exceeded expectations. Citigroup: First quarter economic growth forecast is likely to be revised upward The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March in mainland China reported 50.4, returning to the expansion zone and exceeding market expectations. Citigroup believes that the better-than-expected March PMI reflects the possibility of an upward adjustment in first-quarter economic growth forecasts. However, a 10% increase in oil prices could raise the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 1.15 percentage points and push inflation up by 0.23 percentage points, with expectations that the PPI may turn from decline to increase as early as March. The bank also indicated that the People's Bank of China may delay interest rate cuts until the second half of this year, considering maintaining the stability of the renminbi as a priority in an uncertain environment. It was also pointed out that under the impact of rising oil prices, China's position as the world's factory may be enhanced due to reliable energy and supply chains. JP Morgan believes that the PMI sub-indices and the performance of enterprises of different sizes have generally improved, reflecting a trend towards stability in real economic activity. However, the impacts of the Middle East conflict are beginning to emerge, with both input and output price indices rising. If the Middle East conflict continues, the PPI in April may turn from decline to increase, but it is necessary to continue monitoring data changes to understand the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Gulf and surrounding areas on economic growth and inflation. As for the unofficial manufacturing PMI reflecting the operating conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises, it reported 50.8 in March, down 1.3 from February, falling short of expectations, but remaining in the expansion zone above 50 for four consecutive months. The organization responsible for surveying businesses and compiling the index stated that the pace of manufacturing expansion slowed month-on-month in March, but demand and production continued to grow, with overall operations remaining robust. Supported by factors such as increased market demand, business expansion, promotional activities, and price advantages, new orders were the second highest in six months. Relevant organizations also stated that China has set its economic growth target for this year at 4.5% to 5%, in line with expectations. However, geopolitical conflicts have led to high oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the raw materials market, posing severe challenges for the manufacturing sector in April regarding rising input costs ### Related Stocks - [CSI 300 (000300.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000300.CN.md) - [SSE Index (000001.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000001.CN.md) - [CSI 300 (399300.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/399300.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [China's new home prices rise in March; big cities see seasonal pickup, private survey shows](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281299995.md) - [Guangdong-HKGBA Returns to Profitability in 2025](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281116626.md) - [Over Third of Firms in China Plan to Raise Headcount This Year, Michael Page Survey Finds](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280785374.md) - [China PMI slows to 50.8 as cost pressures hit two-year high](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281287548.md) - [Iron ore rangebound as surging fuel costs offset high portside China stocks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280974111.md)