--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Oil Prices Surge, Gold and Silver Drop, Trump's Tough Stance Hits Ceasefire Expectations" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281520085.md" description: "On April 2, U.S. stock index futures fell across the board, with Dow futures down 1.32%, S&P 500 futures down 1.49%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.98%. Major European stock indices also generally declined. WTI crude oil rose 9.66%, and Brent crude oil rose 7.93%. Trump's tough stance on Iran dampened market hopes for a ceasefire, leading to a significant drop in gold and silver prices. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar index increased" datetime: "2026-04-02T12:06:59.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281520085.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281520085.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281520085.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Oil Prices Surge, Gold and Silver Drop, Trump's Tough Stance Hits Ceasefire Expectations ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of April 2 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 1.32%, S&P 500 futures are down 1.49%, and Nasdaq futures are down 1.98%. ![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260402/1775131014282113.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 2.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.44%, the French CAC 40 index is down 1.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 2.23%. ![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260402/1775131022769916.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 9.66%, priced at $109.79 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 7.93%, priced at $109.18 per barrel. ![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260402/1775131030666244.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **Trump's Tough Stance Hits Ceasefire Hopes.** In a speech on Wednesday evening local time, Trump claimed a "rapid, decisive, overwhelming victory" in the conflict with Iran, stating that the core strategic objectives of the U.S. in the conflict are "close to completion." Trump stated, "The Iranian navy has been completely destroyed, and their air force and missile programs have also been severely damaged." However, another statement from Trump sent shockwaves through the market. He said, "In the next two to three weeks, we will strike them extremely hard... Meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing." Trump also indicated that if Iran does not reach an agreement with the U.S. in the next two to three weeks, the U.S. military will target key Iranian objectives, "striking every power plant very hard," and may also target Iranian oil facilities. Trump's latest remarks dampened market hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. As of the time of writing, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield and the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose nearly 5 basis points to 4.368%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 4 basis points to 3.846%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.6% to 100.25. Spot gold fell nearly 3% to $4627.66 per ounce; spot silver fell over 5% to $70.95 per ounce. **War Triggers "Weekend Fear" in U.S. Stocks! S&P 500 Falls into "Black Thursday" Timed Crash Curse.** As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, the global economy continues to be impacted, and the U.S. stock market has formed a predictable trend pattern: strong gains at the beginning of the week, narrow fluctuations in the middle of the week, and then, like a wound-up clock, a significant crash every Thursday and Friday. This pattern is particularly evident in the S&P 500 index. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the index has recorded gains in the first three trading days of each week, but has collectively fallen 9% on Thursdays and Fridays. Experts say the logic behind this is not complicated There are two days (three days if it coincides with a holiday) when trading cannot occur, and during these two days, many events that could further impact the global economy may happen, especially considering that Trump tends to take significant actions when the market is closed. Therefore, many investors tend to reduce their stock positions as the weekend approaches. **Oil prices of $100 may persist throughout the year! Bank of America warns: The Iran war is dropping a "stagflation bomb" on the world.** Analysts at Bank of America expect that due to the impact of the Iran war, even if the conflict ends in a few weeks, the economy will still face slowing growth, rising inflation, and oil prices at $100 per barrel for the entire year. Bank of America economist Claudio Irigoyen and his team wrote in a report on Wednesday, "So far, the 'dividend' from the war has been mild stagflation," referring to the economic phenomenon of high inflation coexisting with slowing economic growth. Irigoyen wrote that if the conflict escalates and drags on, "a significant rise in energy prices, coupled with a substantial adjustment in asset prices, could lead to a global economic recession." Economists still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, but the timing of these cuts has been pushed from summer to autumn, and they acknowledge that "the risk of these cuts not materializing is very high." **Is gold being "wronged" by liquidity shocks? Standard Chartered predicts: Gold prices will rise again and break records.** Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, gold prices have plummeted. This contradicts the traditional view of gold as a safe-haven asset that provides stability (or appreciation) during market turmoil, increased uncertainty, or geopolitical tensions. However, Suki Cooper, head of global commodities research at Standard Chartered, believes that gold often becomes a passive liquidation tool in the early stages of a crisis, with historical suppression periods typically lasting 4-6 weeks. Although this round of decline has been more severe, overheated positions have largely been cleared, and its safe-haven status remains solid, with expectations that gold prices will challenge historical highs again. She pointed out that many structural drivers for gold remain strong, including concerns over high debt in the U.S. and globally, currency devaluation, tariffs and trade uncertainties, and geopolitical risks. Gold is currently priced against multiple risks, making short-term trends difficult to predict linearly; existing liquidity pressures may continue to suppress gold prices for a while, but it is still expected that gold prices will return to an upward trend in the coming months. On the downside, the 200-day moving average for gold has not been breached since October 2023, providing strong support. The overall direction of the gold market remains upward. **Goldman Sachs warns: The road to resuming aluminum production in the Middle East is long, and global aluminum prices face long-term upward risks.** Goldman Sachs stated that the Middle East, as an important source of aluminum supply, has its future aluminum supply prospects overshadowed by the Gulf War. The region currently accounts for one-fifth of global aluminum production outside of China and was previously expected to see further capacity growth in the coming years. Trina Chen, co-head of China equities at Goldman Sachs, stated in an interview that supply disruptions caused by the conflict—including a large factory shutdown due to an Iranian military attack—have complicated this expansion plan. Chen said on Thursday, "We expect more smelters to be built in the region due to its energy advantages to meet global demand growth." However, she added that the situation has become unclear, increasing the risk of long-term price increases for aluminum **Trump's drug tariff hammer is about to fall! Pharmaceutical companies that have not signed low-price agreements may face a 100% heavy tax.** The Trump administration is expected to announce on Thursday local time that it will impose hefty tariffs on pharmaceutical companies that have not reached agreements to maintain low drug prices in the U.S. market. This is the latest move to impose tariffs on imported goods under the guise of national security. Sources reveal that companies without agreements or negotiations with the government will be subject to a 100% tariff. Major pharmaceutical companies that have reached pricing agreements and agreed to lower drug prices in the U.S. or invest locally include Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Bristol-Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, and Novartis. **Trading reminder: U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on April 3rd due to "Good Friday."** The U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on April 3rd (Friday) for "Good Friday" and will resume normal trading on April 6th (Monday). ## Individual Stock News **Is Berkshire (BRK.A.US) jumping the gun on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike window?** Berkshire Hathaway has hired banks to arrange its first yen bond issuance since last November. This move has sparked speculation about its investment plans in Japan. Mizuho Securities stated in an email on Thursday that Berkshire has commissioned Mizuho Securities and Bank of America Securities to prepare for a potential benchmark-sized yen bond issuance. The issuance is expected to take place soon, but still depends on market conditions. This planned bond issuance comes as the Bank of Japan is expected to further raise interest rates to curb inflation. The swap market indicates that the market expects about a 70% probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates on April 28, and it is almost certain that one rate hike will be completed before the policy meeting in July. **KKR (KKR.US) breaks through against the industry winter! Raises $23 billion to create the largest North American private equity fund in history.** Private equity giant KKR has raised approximately $23 billion for its latest Americas acquisition fund, achieving a breakthrough amid an overall downturn in the private equity industry due to difficulties in selling assets and returning capital to investors. It is reported that this fund, named "North America Fund XIV," has exceeded its target of $20 billion, becoming the largest fund in the company's history across all strategies. KKR stated in a press release on Thursday that this is also the largest private equity fund focused on the North American market ever raised by any institution. **Total (TTE.US) and UAE state-owned Masdar establish a $2.2 billion renewable energy joint venture with a capacity of up to 9GW across nine countries.** Total and UAE renewable energy company Masdar announced on Thursday that they will merge their onshore renewable energy businesses in nine Asian countries to establish a joint venture valued at $2.2 billion. The merged company will have an operational installed capacity of 3 GW, with an additional 6 GW in late-stage development. Both parties will hold 50% stakes in the joint venture headquartered in Abu Dhabi. The two companies will inject assets of equivalent value into the joint venture, with projects expected to be operational by 2030. After the transaction is completed, the joint venture will develop, construct, own, and operate solar, wind, and energy storage projects; This will be their business consolidation in Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Uzbekistan. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast At 20:30 Beijing time, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 28. 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