--- title: "Tesla Posts One Of Its Worst Sales Quarters In Years—Prediction Markets Saw It Coming" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281548812.md" description: "Tesla reported disappointing Q1 sales, delivering 358,023 vehicles, missing Wall Street's consensus of 372,160. Prediction market traders had anticipated lower deliveries, pricing them below 350,000. Analyst Dan Ives described the results as underwhelming but not surprising, maintaining an Outperform rating. The year-over-year increase of 6.3% is overshadowed by a 14.4% drop from Q4 2025. TSLA shares are down 13.5% year-to-date, with Canaccord reducing its price target to $395. Upcoming earnings on April 28 will focus on Cybercab production rather than sales figures." datetime: "2026-04-02T15:16:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281548812.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281548812.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281548812.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281548812.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281548812.md) # Tesla Posts One Of Its Worst Sales Quarters In Years—Prediction Markets Saw It Coming Polymarket bettors spent most of Q1 pricing **Tesla Inc** (NASDAQ:TSLA) deliveries below 350,000. Wall Street’s consensus sat at 372,160. The actual number, 358,023, handed traditional analysts a miss but validated the prediction market bettors who pivoted to the correct bracket days before the print. **Dan Ives**, the Wedbush analyst with the Street’s highest Tesla price target at $600, called the delivery numbers “quite underwhelming” but said it was “not a shock” given the current EV backdrop. He maintained his Outperform rating, arguing Tesla is shifting gears to focus on its AI strategy. ## **What The Prediction Markets Showed** For most of the quarter, the “below 350,000” bracket was the favorite, trading above 60%. That aligned with UBS’s bearish 345,000-unit forecast, which sat roughly 7% below the company-compiled consensus. Prediction market traders were more pessimistic than Wall Street for weeks. Then on March 26, Tesla published its own analyst consensus of 365,645 vehicles on its investor relations page. The Polymarket chart shows an immediate flip: the 350,000-375,000 bracket surged from around 25% to near-100% within days. The bracket collapsed. The actual 358,023 landed in that range. ## **Where Tesla Goes From Here** The 6.3% year-over-year increase looks respectable until you remember Q1 2025 was when Tesla shut down Model Y lines across all four factories for the Juniper refresh. The more honest comparison is Q4 2025’s 418,227 deliveries, making this a 14.4% sequential drop. TSLA is down about 13.5% year-to-date. Canaccord slashed its price target by $100 this week. The analyst consensus is a Hold at roughly $395. Earnings are expected on April 28, with the focus depending less on cars sold and more on what Musk says about Cybercab production, which is slated to begin this month. _Image: Shutterstock_ ### Related Stocks - [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF (TSL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [Leverage Shares 2X Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLG.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [T-REX 2X Inverse Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSLQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares (TSLS.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [XL2CSOPTSLA (07766.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA-U (09366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [XI2CSOPTSLA (07366.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla’s sales recover slightly, but the trend lines are all bad](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281541012.md) - [Tesla first-quarter deliveries are coming. What it means for the stock.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281359346.md) - [Tesla First Quarter 2026 Production, Deliveries & Deployments | TSLA Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281529738.md) - [Wealthcare Advisory Partners LLC Increases Stake in Tesla, Inc. $TSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280907578.md) - [Jeff Bezos-backed Slate Auto plans national customization hub](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280690916.md)