The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to impact global energy markets, and Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario.
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned in an interview with the Financial Times that this energy shock will be &#34;long-term,&#34; and the EU is &#34;evaluating all possible options,&#34; including limiting fuel supply and further tapping into strategic reserves.
He explicitly stated, &#34;For some more critical products, we expect the situation to deteriorate further in the coming weeks.&#34; This is the starkest public statement by an EU official to date in the current crisis.
The aviation industry has been the first to feel the pressure, with several airlines expressing high concern about the future supply of jet fuel. The sustained rise in energy prices and concerns about long-term supply are being transmitted throughout the European economy.
<h2>Strait of Hormuz Nearly Closed, Energy Market in Chaos</h2>
The Strait of Hormuz – one of the world's most crucial energy transit routes – is now nearly closed, while energy infrastructure in the Gulf region continues to be hit, plunging global energy markets into turmoil and causing oil prices to surge.
Dan Jørgensen characterized the current situation as a &#34;long-term crisis,&#34; stating that &#34;energy prices will remain high for a long time.&#34; He noted that the EU is not currently in a &#34;supply security crisis,&#34; but Brussels is already developing contingency plans to deal with the &#34;structural, long-term effects&#34; of the conflict.
&#34;The language and tone we are using now are more serious than in the early stages of the crisis,&#34; he said:
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&#34;This is indeed our assessment – that this will be a protracted situation, and countries need to ensure they have adequate reserves.&#34;
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<h2>Supply Limitations and Strategic Reserves: Worst-Case Scenario Plans Underway</h2>
Regarding specific response measures, Dan Jørgensen indicated that the EU is evaluating the possibility of limiting the supply of critical products such as jet fuel and diesel, although he emphasized that it has &#34;not reached&#34; the stage where actual implementation is necessary. &#34;It is better to prepare for the worst than to regret later,&#34; he said.
On strategic reserves, Dan Jørgensen did not rule out reactivating oil strategic reserves, &#34;if the situation deteriorates further.&#34; Last month, EU member states participated in the largest ever coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves to curb price increases.
He declined to disclose the EU's &#34;precise judgment&#34; on when another release of reserves might be needed, but stated, &#34;We are taking this very seriously and are ready to act whenever necessary.&#34; &#34;We need to keep our options open. If this crisis continues for a long time as I expect, we will also need these tools in later stages,&#34; he added, &#34;but the timing must be precise, and the scale must be commensurate with the situation.&#34;
<h2>Discussions on Loosening Fuel Standards Begin, But No Regulatory Changes Yet</h2>
Discussions around regulatory standards for jet fuel have also been put on the agenda. There are differences between the EU and the US regarding the freezing point standards for jet fuel – the EU standard is minus 47 degrees Celsius, while the US standard is minus 40 degrees Celsius. When asked if the EU would consider relaxing its standards to broaden import sources from the US, or allow a higher proportion of ethanol in automotive fuels, Dan Jørgensen stated that currently &#34;no amendments or adjustments have been made to the existing regulations.&#34;
However, he left room for maneuver:
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&#34;We are examining all possibilities, and the more severe the situation, the more we will certainly need to consider legislative tools.&#34;
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On natural gas policy, Dan Jørgensen reiterated that the EU would not terminate imports of Russian liquefied natural gas by amending EU legislation this year. He stated that the EU would rely more on additional supplies from the US and other partners, citing that these suppliers operate under &#34;free market&#34; conditions, which is acceptable.

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

At 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Trump delivered a national address, claiming a "rapid and decisive victory" in the US military's war against Iran and stating that core strategic objectives were nearing completion. He emphasized that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and called the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities a "huge success." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump encouraged countries to "take responsibility for themselves" without providing a clear timetable for its reopening. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put markets on edge, and the US military may intensify its strikes in the coming weeks. Will the US-Iran conflict end quickly as Trump hopes? How will the energy market evolve?

Trump's tough stance: Is the war with Iran nearing its end?

CRAK

EU Energy Commissioner warns that the situation in the Middle East is triggering a long-term energy crisis, with conditions expected to worsen further in the coming weeks. The EU has activated contingency plans and is evaluating extreme options such as limiting fuel supply and reactivating strategic reserves. Although regulations have not yet been amended, Brussels is securing supply through multiple channels to cope with structural shocks in the global energy market

- Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are impacting global energy markets, prompting the EU to prepare for worst-case scenarios.  
- EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned of a "long-term crisis," emphasizing assessments of limited fuel supply and potential strategic reserve utilization amidst soaring energy prices and concerns about long-term supply stability.  
- With the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, Jørgensen indicated that the EU might implement limited supply for critical products like aviation fuel, while discussions on regulatory adjustments are ongoing but no changes have been made yet.

Europe Is Preparing for the Worst: Energy May Truly Be Insufficient