--- title: "Deutsche Bank's outlook on US bank stocks for Q1 earnings season: Overall performance is expected to be robust, with net interest income likely to hit the upper end of guidance" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281642204.md" description: "Deutsche Bank expects that the financial performance of U.S. bank stocks in the first quarter of 2026 will be robust, with net interest income likely reaching the upper end of guidance or higher. The earnings season will kick off on April 13, with Goldman Sachs being the first to release its results. Deutsche Bank is optimistic about Huntington Bancshares, PNC Financial Services, and US Bancorp, believing that JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America may raise their full-year net interest income guidance, while Truist Financial may hint at a downward revision. Overall, the earnings per share forecast for 15 large banks is, on average, higher than market expectations" datetime: "2026-04-03T13:34:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642204.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281642204.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642204.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642204.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642204.md) # Deutsche Bank's outlook on US bank stocks for Q1 earnings season: Overall performance is expected to be robust, with net interest income likely to hit the upper end of guidance According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the earnings season for U.S. bank stocks will kick off on April 13 (Monday) Eastern Time, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) being the first to announce its Q1 2026 results before the market opens that day. Deutsche Bank recently released a report stating that it expects the overall performance of bank stocks to be robust/strong, with most banks' net interest income (NII) likely at the upper end (or higher) of guidance ranges, strong trends in capital markets business (investment banking + trading), good operating leverage, and stable asset quality. Deutsche Bank indicated that the banks it is most optimistic about before the earnings releases include Huntington Bank (HBAN.US), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.US), and US Bancorp (USB.US). Deutsche Bank noted that, given that this is only the first quarter of the fiscal year and macro uncertainties have increased, most banks are not expected to make significant adjustments to their fiscal year 2026 guidance. However, within its coverage, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) may raise its full-year net interest income guidance again due to strong loan growth and rising interest rate expectations; Bank of America (BAC.US) may also raise its guidance or at least tighten the guidance range to the mid-high range. Other banks may maintain their net interest income guidance as the sustainability of loan growth remains unclear, while the interest rate environment and outlook have become more volatile. In contrast, Truist Financial (TFC.US) may suggest a downward bias in its full-year guidance, as its net interest margin (NIM) expansion relies more on interest rate cuts, and management previously assumed that the pace of rate cuts would occur earlier than the market generally expects. **1\. Best/Worst Performing Banks in Q1 2026** Deutsche Bank stated that its Q1 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the 15 large bank stocks it covers are, on average, about 1% higher than market consensus expectations. Among these, the forecasts for Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bank, and KeyCorp (KEY.US) are the most above market consensus, while the forecast for M&T Bank (MTB.US) is the most below consensus. Before the earnings releases, Deutsche Bank's top picks are Huntington Bank, PNC Financial Services Group, and US Bancorp, for the following reasons: 1. Huntington Bank: This stock has previously underperformed due to concerns about costs, uncertainties regarding merger transaction valuations, and market worries about potential large bank mergers. However, considering its strong independent growth prospects, reasonable merger assumptions, superior credit review quality compared to market perceptions, and confidence that management will not pursue large mergers during undervalued periods, Deutsche Bank still lists Huntington Bank as a preferred target. Currently, the stock price (based on consensus expectations for 2026-2027) is trading at a 12%-13% discount to peers, with pessimistic expectations largely priced in, creating an investment opportunity. 1. PNC Financial Services Group: PNC Financial Services Group has high leverage on commercial and industrial loan (C&I) growth (accounting for 55%-60% of loans) and capital markets business (accounting for 6%-7% of revenue). Additionally, the bank has consistently been one of the best performers in credit risk management, with its asset quality remaining industry-leading since the global financial crisis 3) US Bancorp: US Bancorp has achieved or exceeded guidance for three consecutive quarters, and this trend is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, among the banks covered by Deutsche Bank, US Bancorp is considered a bank stock with strong credit defensive attributes, giving it an advantage in the current environment of rising credit concerns. Nevertheless, US Bancorp's current stock price is trading at a discount of about 6% compared to the consensus expectations for fiscal year 2026, and is essentially flat for 2027. **2\. Key Themes** Deutsche Bank indicates that revenue trends are expected to reflect stable net interest income quarter-over-quarter, with strong growth in commercial and industrial loans offsetting the impact of two fewer days in the quarter and seasonal declines in credit card business. Capital markets business is performing strongly, with industry investment banking revenue expected to grow by 20%, trading revenue expected to grow by 15%, and other fee income generally in line with expectations. Other anticipated trends include: overall asset quality remaining stable (despite some banks experiencing volatile losses), good cost control, and a slight increase in share buybacks (affected by stock price declines during the quarter). Deutsche Bank expects net interest income to be at the upper end of guidance or higher, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected loan growth. Net interest income is expected to be stable quarter-over-quarter, with loan growth offsetting the impact of fewer days in the quarter. Net interest margin is expected to rise by 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, Deutsche Bank expects the overall net interest income of the banks it covers to grow by 8%, marking the strongest growth since the second quarter of 2023. **3\. Full-Year EPS Forecast Adjustment** Deutsche Bank noted that in mid-March, several banks commented on the macro environment, disclosing trends during the quarter and updating guidance. Based on subsequent communications with various banks, Deutsche Bank has updated its earnings forecasts. Overall, Deutsche Bank's forecasts for fiscal year 2026 remain largely unchanged. At the same time, the bank has released its first forecasts for the fiscal years 2027-2028 for most covered banks. Overall, the bank's forecast for fiscal year 2027 is in line with the market, while its forecast for fiscal year 2028 is about 1% higher ### Related Stocks - [iShares US Regional Banks ETF (IAT.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAT.US.md) - [The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. 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