--- title: "Prominent Analyst: Credit Cycle Reversed, Cash is King, Gold to Reach $10,000!" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281643756.md" description: "Ed Dowd believes that private credit institutions collectively setting redemption thresholds signals a turning point in the credit cycle, with ripple effects expected to spread throughout the economy. Meanwhile, Middle East conflicts will accelerate a global recession that is \"bound to happen anyway.\" Dowd maintains his long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices will reach $10,000 per ounce around 2030, and is also optimistic about the long-term trend for silver" datetime: "2026-04-03T13:55:48.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281643756.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281643756.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281643756.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281643756.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281643756.md) # Prominent Analyst: Credit Cycle Reversed, Cash is King, Gold to Reach $10,000! Global credit markets are showing alarming cracks. Wall Street asset manager and Phinance Technologies analyst Ed Dowd warns that pressure in the private credit sector is accelerating, with several leading institutions imposing redemption restrictions on investors, signaling a potential turning point in the credit cycle. Dowd stated that Blue Owl, Apollo, BlackRock, and KKR have all implemented "gating" measures on their relevant funds to prevent investor redemptions. He pointed out that high-net-worth individuals, insurance companies, and pension funds have invested millions into these private credit funds and are now facing an inability to withdraw their capital. Dowd characterized this phenomenon as the beginning of a "reversal in the credit cycle" and cautioned that this chain reaction will spread throughout the broader economy. Against this backdrop, Dowd maintains his long-term bullish outlook on gold, expecting prices to reach $10,000 per ounce around 2030, and is also optimistic about the long-term trend for silver. In his 2026 economic outlook report, he explicitly advised investors to hold cash, predicting that risk assets will continue to face pressure. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2efb4926-56b6-4ad9-870b-92cb91ce755d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Private Credit "Gating" Trend: A Signal of the Credit Cycle Turning Point Dowd first issued a warning back in January of this year, pointing out that a "credit destruction cycle" had begun to manifest in the private credit sector. His primary concern at the time was that nearly all loan growth in the economy over the past two years had come from banks channeling funds to private credit institutions, a structurally risky concentration. He now believes the situation has clearly deteriorated. "The number of credit funds implementing redemption gates continues to increase," Dowd said. "This is a very important signal because the investors in these funds – high-net-worth individuals, insurance companies, pension funds – want to redeem, but they find the door is closed." He described private credit as the "canary in the coal mine," emphasizing that problems in this sector emerged long before the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, indicating not an external shock but an early signal of an endogenous reversal in the credit cycle. ## Geopolitical Conflicts Compound: Accelerating, Not Altering, the Recession Path Dowd believes that the escalation of tensions in Iran will only accelerate the negative economic scenario he has predicted, rather than fundamentally altering its course. "The Iran conflict is just adding fuel to an overall negative global scenario," he said. He noted that if the situation were to resolve quickly and the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, the market might see a brief rebound. However, this would not change the downward trend in economic fundamentals. "There will be a temporary relief rally, but everything I've predicted will still roll through the system." **If the conflict is prolonged, Dowd warns that global demand will suffer substantial damage, thereby accelerating the global recession he believes is "bound to happen anyway."** ## Inflation to Rise Short-Term, but Demand Destruction Will Suppress Long-Term Prices Regarding the inflation outlook, Dowd holds a relatively contrarian view: despite characterizing the current situation as an "oil price shock," he does not believe it will evolve into a sustained inflationary shock. "Demand destruction will eventually occur," he explained. "Inflation will rise in the short term, but then it will fall as everything else prices down, especially the housing component of CPI." He pointed out that rents are already falling, and housing prices historically follow rent trends. "It's cheaper to rent than to buy now, and housing prices will fall, which in itself is enough to trigger a recession." He further added that if the artificial intelligence bubble bursts and combines with these factors, the intensity of the global recession will deepen. ## Cash is King, Gold's Long-Term Target is $10,000 In the face of these multiple risks, Dowd has adopted a distinctly conservative asset allocation stance in his 2026 economic outlook report. "I am currently in a very conservative position," he said. "Our assessment is that risk assets will continue to be under pressure, and cash is king." On the subject of precious metals, Dowd maintains a strong long-term bullish stance on gold, predicting prices will reach $10,000 per ounce around 2030, and is equally optimistic about the long-term trend for silver. 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