---
title: "CITIC Construction Investment Yang Ju: The liquor industry welcomes its year of recovery, and there will be an opportunity for a decade-long bottom in investment"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281853557.md"
description: "CITIC Construction Investment analyst Yang Ju pointed out that in 2025, the liquor industry will undergo a deep adjustment, with overall performance declining year-on-year and production decreasing by 12.1%. Traditional distributors are under pressure, but new channels such as live e-commerce and instant retail are experiencing significant growth. In terms of products, liquor companies are focusing on health and youthfulness, with low-alcohol and bottled liquor rapidly growing. Looking ahead to 2026, Yang Ju believes it will be the year of recovery for the liquor industry, and outstanding companies are expected to achieve performance improvement in the second quarter"
datetime: "2026-04-07T08:46:19.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281853557.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281853557.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281853557.md)
---

# CITIC Construction Investment Yang Ju: The liquor industry welcomes its year of recovery, and there will be an opportunity for a decade-long bottom in investment

Editor's Note: In 2025, the liquor industry continues to "explore the bottom" amid deep adjustments. Many listed liquor companies are experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth and a decline in net profits, with the pace of industry reshuffling accelerating. Standing at the point of 2026, what changes will the liquor industry undergo? Tencent Finance's "Liquor Industry Observation" column invites several chief analysts from securities firms to review the gains and losses of the industry in 2025 and to look ahead to the development trends in 2026.

**Text by｜Luka**

**Edited by｜Liu Peng**

In 2025, the liquor industry experienced a painful period of deep adjustment, with the first overall year-on-year decline in performance in many years. Significant changes occurred in both the channel and product sides. According to data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual output of liquor from industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.549 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%.

The reasons for this, according to Yang Ju, chief analyst of the food and beverage industry at CITIC Construction Investment, are driven by multiple factors. From the perspective of the economic cycle, macro data related to consumption remains weak; from the perspectives of industry cycle, inventory cycle, product cycle, and entrepreneur cycle, the liquor industry transitioned from a favorable cycle in 2022 to accumulating some inventory. With weak demand in 2023 and 2024, and supply still being relatively large, the backdrop of continued weak demand in 2025 led to multiple clearances of inventory, performance, and prices.

On the channel side, traditional distributors in the liquor industry faced significant pressure in 2025, bearing considerable sales and financial burdens. However, at the same time, new channels achieved good growth, with live e-commerce, instant retail, and new supermarkets showing significant sales growth, becoming an important source of incremental growth at the bottom of the industry cycle.

On the product side, liquor companies are also actively seeking change, focusing on health and youthfulness, promoting lower alcohol content, price reductions, and reduced packaging. Products like light bottle liquor and low-alcohol products are rapidly growing, adapting to generational consumption changes and health demands. For example, high-end light bottle products such as Fenjiu Bo Fen, Yanghe Three-Year Aged, and Gujing's Old Porcelain Tribute are experiencing rapid growth, with famous liquor products improving in quality, reducing packaging, and lowering prices, providing consumers with benefits.

Looking ahead to future industry trends, Yang Ju stated that 2026 is expected to be the year of recovery for the liquor industry, with the stabilization of Moutai's wholesale price as a core signal. For listed liquor companies, excellent enterprises may see performance improvements in the second quarter of 2026. Yang Ju believes that it is undoubtedly the bottom of the current liquor industry cycle, and in 2026, there will be a significant investment opportunity for the liquor industry after a decade-long bottom.

**The following is a summary of Yang Ju's views on the liquor industry as the chief analyst of the food and beverage industry at CITIC Construction Investment Securities:**

**Q: Since 2025, the liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period. What do you think are the key reasons for the continued decline in the liquor industry?**

**Yang Ju:** The clearance of channel inventory, the clearance of liquor factory performance, and the clearance of sales prices. 2025 is the "clearance" year for the liquor industry, a year to address market "pain points," and also the year when the industry cycle hits bottom In 2025, the liquor industry continues to decline. The reasons, according to our "Five Major Cycles of Liquor" analysis framework, are as follows. First, from the economic cycle perspective, macro data related to consumption remains weak, such as PPI, CPI, and retail sales data. By reviewing the correlation between macro indicators and the performance of the liquor sector, we find that PPI has a relatively strong correlation, which corresponds to changes in market demand, reflecting the strength of business demand.

Of course, in 2025, the impact of the "518 New Policy" is also superimposed. The new policy requires that "high-end dishes, cigarettes, and alcohol must not be provided at official reception meals." The original intention of the policy is to combat violations of eating and drinking within the system. In some regions, there has been a "layered increase" in restrictions, suppressing liquor demand. Subsequently, state media stated that "prohibiting violations of eating and drinking does not mean that all eating and drinking is a violation," and unreasonable restrictions are gradually being lifted, with market demand showing a month-on-month recovery trend.

In addition, from the perspectives of industry cycle, inventory cycle, product cycle, and entrepreneur cycle, the liquor industry began to accumulate some inventory in 2022, transitioning from a pro-cyclical phase. As demand remained weak in 2023 and 2024, and enterprises faced government growth targets, supply became excessive, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand in the industry, with inventory gradually accumulating. This is also reflected in the downward trend of Moutai's wholesale price. Therefore, against the backdrop of continued weak demand in 2025, there has been a multiple clearing of inventory, performance, and prices.

**Question: The high inventory of liquor is currently a core issue in the industry's "winter." What is the actual situation regarding current inventory? What measures should liquor companies take to promote inventory reduction?**

**Yang Ji:** Returning to our liquor research framework, the inventory cycle of the "Five Major Cycles of Liquor" focuses on the cyclical fluctuations of liquor inventory. When demand is good, channel expectations are often more optimistic than market demand, leading to a gradual increase in market inventory. When demand weakens, the performance targets of liquor companies are often adjusted downward, lagging behind sales, resulting in further accumulation of channel inventory. However, the industry will eventually enter a phase of inventory reduction.

Therefore, the level of inventory itself is a cyclical fluctuation. Since 2024, e-commerce subsidies have led to a decline in Moutai prices, marking the beginning of the industry's adjustment period, and the liquor industry has begun to slow down. In 2025, a new round of "prohibition on alcohol" was introduced, and the industry has fully entered a deep adjustment period, initiating a significant clearing of performance, with Moutai prices further declining. From the perspective of market inventory, the industry began to reduce inventory starting in the third quarter of 2024, or in other words, stopped accumulating inventory. In 2025, especially in the second half of the year, performance clearing began, and the industry is in an accelerated inventory reduction phase.

Currently, the inventory levels of liquor companies are differentiated. Leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have released inventory pressure based on better-than-expected sales during the Spring Festival. The subsequent pace of inventory reduction in the industry depends on the specific performance targets of enterprises and market demand conditions.

**Question: How is the survival situation of liquor distributors during the industry downturn? Are there any specific cases you can share? The relationship between manufacturers and distributors is quite delicate. How do you think both sides should work together to respond to this cycle of liquor in 2026?** **Yang Ju:** 2025 may be a phase where traditional distributors carry heavy burdens, facing significant sales and financial pressures, and it may also be a time for weaker distributors to exit the market. Meanwhile, new channels continue to see good growth, with live e-commerce, instant retail, and new supermarkets showing noticeable sales growth for distributors, becoming an important source of incremental growth at the bottom of the industry cycle, particularly for those representing leading brands.

Looking ahead to 2026, the key to easing manufacturer-distributor relationships is to "reduce pressure" and "make money" for distributors. Reducing pressure means setting reasonable goals based on actual sales performance to lighten the load on distributors. For example, Moutai is reducing the volume of non-standard products and lowering prices to achieve channel price consistency, while Wuliangye is adjusting its rebate strategy to lower the actual invoicing price for distributors to 900 yuan.

The core of "making money" is that manufacturers and distributors must adapt to the trends of scene and channel changes to capture new market growth, including live e-commerce, instant retail, and AI digital transformation, forming a collaborative management model between manufacturers and distributors, with targeted actions gradually implemented in line with market trends. For instance, Feitian Moutai launched the i Moutai platform, and Zhenjiu introduced the Da Zhen Exploration "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" innovative model. Manufacturers must actively connect with various new channels, such as e-commerce, instant retail, and new supermarkets (Sam's Club, Ole, Hema, etc.).

**Q: Will the impact of e-commerce platforms on offline distributors intensify? What is your view on the efforts of liquor companies in new channels, such as flash sales?**

**Yang Ju:** As mentioned above, we believe that whether it is traditional e-commerce, live e-commerce, or instant retail represented by "flash sales," these are all new channels that will be important growth directions for liquor in the future. During the development of new channels, liquor companies and distributors need to actively embrace trends and keep up with changes in consumer behavior. Of course, in the early stages of new channels, there may be price impacts as liquor companies or distributors are still in the exploratory phase.

After two years of market sorting, liquor companies currently have stronger control over online channels than before and are actively participating in the layout of online channels. On one hand, distributors are actively transforming their marketing and expanding sales channels; on the other hand, liquor companies are strengthening supervision of online channels, combating disorderly online development, and actively cooperating with e-commerce platforms to increase online authorized stores, creating certain product specifications that differ from offline, and so on.

Regardless, in the future, new retail channels represented by e-commerce and instant retail will be important growth directions for the liquor industry. Currently, the online penetration rate of the liquor industry is still very low, and online sales are still in a phase of rapid GMV growth, indicating significant potential for future incremental growth.

**Q: In the new round of adjustment cycles in the liquor industry, will industry concentration increase, and will there be significant merger and acquisition cases?**

**Yang Ju:** During a deep adjustment period, it may also be an important window for industry mergers and acquisitions, as the prices of quality targets are relatively low. At this stage, for companies, mergers and acquisitions are not the goal but rather a means to achieve complementary integration with internal businesses in terms of aroma types, market share, production capacity, and channels.

For example, Yanghe's acquisition of Shuangguo and Laobai Gan's acquisition of Bancheng both achieved an increase in market share within the province. Yanghe's acquisition of Guijiu and the joint venture with Shede to establish the Gu Yelang Winery compensates for the company's shortcomings in the sauce liquor category. Gujing's acquisition of Huanghelou completed a breakthrough in the weak region of Hubei The organic integration of internal growth and external mergers and acquisitions does not rule out becoming one of the ways to increase market share at the bottom of the cycle.

During the adjustment period, the industry continues to show trends of differentiation and concentration, and the proportion of T9 revenue and profit is expected to continue to rise. Whether there will be industrial mergers and acquisitions in the future needs to be considered more from the company's own strategic demands.

**Q: From the product dimension, will this round of adjustment affect the future product structure of liquor companies, thereby compressing the profit margins of enterprises? What do you think about liquor companies accelerating their "downward" strategy?**

**Yang Ju:** Reviewing historical adjustment periods, companies in the industry will make similar adjustments to their product structures. On one hand, the adjustment period still contains structural opportunities, ensuring a gradual balance of volume and price for main products, further enriching the product structure to enhance blood generation capacity and improve performance. On the other hand, short-term main product prices may still be under pressure, but in the medium to long term, stabilizing brand positioning and brand height is crucial. With the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy unchanged and the recovery of CPI/PPI performance, we are optimistic about the gradual recovery of the Chinese liquor price cycle in the future.

During this round of adjustment, different liquor companies will have varying directions for product adjustments based on their brand tone or company characteristics. "Blindly pushing new products" is not the main line; instead, they should formulate suitable product strategies based on their own strategic demands. For example, some choose low-alcohol liquor, some choose low-priced boxed liquor or bulk liquor, and some choose to lower their price points.

By 2025, we have noticed that high-end light bottle products such as Fenjiu Wave Fen, Yanghe Three-Year Aged, and Gujing's Old Porcelain Tribute are experiencing rapid growth. Famous liquor products are improving in quality, reducing packaging, and lowering price points, providing consumers with benefits. Regarding bulk liquor, it may not have a substantial impact on the revenue of some enterprises, but after packaging liquidation, it can achieve sales profits.

Regarding low-alcohol products, there has been good development in low-alcohol beverages in the past two years. Behind this trend is health consciousness, the generational replacement of the core consumer group, and an attempt by liquor companies to adapt to market demands. In fact, during the last round of adjustment in the liquor industry from 2012 to 2016, there was a wave of reducing alcohol content, with a trend from 50 degrees down to 40 degrees. By 2025, we observe that some liquor companies are launching products with even lower alcohol content. The reduction in alcohol content is not the ultimate goal but rather an exploration of health trends and future drinking habits.

**Q: How effective is the ongoing youth strategy of liquor companies, such as developing low-alcohol liquor, improving product packaging, and community marketing? What is the market acceptance, sales performance, and profit potential of these products?**

**Yang Ju:** First, it is important to correctly understand the youth strategy of liquor companies. It is not about cultivating 20-something young people to quickly become heavy consumers of liquor, but rather, in response to the aging of the previous generation of heavy consumers, market strategies are beginning to focus on the key target group of 30-40 year-olds. This group consists of individuals born in the 1980s and 1990s, who grew up in relatively affluent environments. With the development of the domestic economy and the increase in income levels, their consumption concepts and social perspectives differ from those of the previous generation. This group has higher demands for liquor quality, scenarios, brand tone, and health, and the strategy of liquor companies is to adjust in line with the changing demands of this group Of course, such adjustments by liquor companies do not mean turning baijiu into foreign liquor, nor into liqueurs with an alcohol content of 10+ degrees. Instead, it is about maintaining the traditional flavor profile of baijiu while meeting the more personalized consumption needs of young people. This includes launching lower-alcohol products to explore the market, all in response to the trends in baijiu demand. For example, Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao 1573 was one of the early explorations of the mid-low alcohol market and achieved success, with annual sales exceeding 10 billion. In 2025, Wuliangye launched the 29-degree "Yijian Qingxin," which achieved sales of over 120 million yuan within 60 days of its launch.

**Q: Through cross-border marketing, how can liquor companies expand consumption scenarios and reach new consumer groups? What key areas should liquor companies focus on for cross-border marketing?**

**Yang Ji:** In the past few years, we have noticed that liquor companies have been making many attempts in cross-border marketing, scenario integration, trendy IP, and cultural and sports events. On one hand, they are exploring more integrated scenarios through cross-border efforts, including the exploration of "sauce-flavored latte." Some liquor companies have also attempted to integrate dining scenarios (such as tasting events in collaboration with Michelin restaurants, and launching "dishes + small liquor" packages in cooperation with restaurants). The integration of liquor and travel is also a key direction for liquor companies. On the other hand, liquor companies have always leveraged trendy IP and cultural and sports events for brand promotion, such as the World Cup and tennis events. Some liquor companies have attempted to create trendy IP, such as Jiangxiaobai's self-created image IP and Tianyoude's collaboration with the IP A Li.

From our perspective, as liquor companies promote such diverse cross-border marketing, they should further focus on the organic integration of Chinese baijiu culture with scenarios, IP, and activities in the future, embedding culture into cross-border marketing. We believe that through cross-border marketing, baijiu can ultimately enrich its scenarios and target audiences. The methods of cross-border marketing should combine tangible and intangible communication, domestic and international elements, as well as brand and event promotion.

**Q: Due to the decline in domestic market demand, many liquor companies are placing great importance on going overseas. What do you think the industry's performance in overseas markets will be in 2025? What new phenomena do you see? Do you have any suggestions or observations for baijiu going overseas in 2026?**

**Yang Ji:** In 2025, baijiu exports will show characteristics of "steady growth but low proportion, with significant structural differentiation." The total export value for the entire year from January to September 2025 is expected to be 704 million USD (up 5.3% year-on-year), with an export volume of 12.15 million liters (up 4.9% year-on-year). However, the overseas revenue share of baijiu companies is generally below 5%, and the export value accounts for only about 0.85% of the industry's total revenue.

The current low overseas share and steady growth reflect that going overseas is an important growth direction for baijiu in the future. Of course, we also believe that going overseas is a long-term gradual cultivation process that requires a relatively longer time. Therefore, we divide the path of baijiu going overseas into three stages for gradual advancement.

The first stage of going overseas is to meet the needs of established baijiu consumers abroad. This mainly targets overseas Chinese and the baijiu demand of Chinese people traveling abroad, addressing the need for consumers who want to "buy baijiu" overseas, such as Moutai and Wuliangye establishing specialty stores abroad In the second phase of going overseas, the deep integration of liquor and Chinese cuisine. In line with the globalization trend of Chinese cuisine, further cultivate overseas consumers' preference for liquor. Referring to the organic integration of Japanese sake with izakayas in the domestic market, we can also see that Wuliangye has transformed some of its overseas specialty stores into restaurant models featuring Chinese cuisine, organically combining "Chinese cuisine + liquor" to cultivate overseas consumers.

In the third phase of going overseas, liquor culture goes global. Chinese liquor culture tends to focus on dining table culture, while Western liquor culture leans towards bar culture. The overseas expansion of liquor should adapt to overseas liquor culture while maintaining its own tone, achieving a deep integration of Chinese liquor culture with Western liquor culture.

From this perspective, we believe that the current overseas expansion of liquor is generally in the first two phases, and a significant increase in overseas revenue will take time.

**Q: This year, including the peak season for liquor during the Spring Festival, what observations do you have? Could this become an industry turning point for liquor in this round of adjustments?**

**Yang Ju:** We believe that the core keywords for liquor during the Spring Festival in 2026 are "differentiation" & "bottoming out." The overall sales of the industry have slightly declined, which is in line with expectations. Among them, Moutai's sales and wholesale prices exceeded expectations, Wuliangye's sales slightly exceeded expectations, and additionally, Fenjiu, JianNanchun, Jinshiyuan, Gujing, and Yingjia performed relatively well, while other liquor companies are still in the adjustment period. The characteristics of the industry hitting bottom are evident, and the risks of continued decline in wholesale prices for leading liquor companies and increasing inventory pressure are relatively small. Specifically:

1.  The differentiation of brands and price levels has intensified. Moutai and Wuliangye exceeded expectations during the Spring Festival, while most other liquor companies are still adjusting. The differentiation among brands and price levels in the liquor market during the Spring Festival of 2026 has significantly intensified. Overall, mid-to-high-end mass price levels performed well, high-end price levels remained stable, and sub-high-end price levels faced pressure. Moutai and Wuliangye performed beyond expectations, with Moutai exceeding expectations in sales, shipments, wholesale prices, and new customer development during the Spring Festival. Wuliangye's sales during the Spring Festival also exceeded expectations, mainly benefiting from the strong brand power of the leaders and competitive pricing. Additionally, Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing, and Yingjia performed relatively well based on their local markets, while JianNanchun performed well due to its deep cultivation of mass banquets and competitive pricing.
    
2.  Price strategy differentiation: price cuts to gain market share vs. maintaining prices to strengthen brands. The Spring Festival of 2026 is during a deep adjustment period for the liquor industry, and the pricing strategies of liquor companies show significant differentiation. Companies represented by Moutai, Wuliangye, JianNanchun, and Gujing choose to follow the trend, lowering prices to maintain volume, aiming to preserve or further increase market share; while companies represented by Guojiao, Fenjiu, and Yanghe firmly maintain prices/reduce costs, aiming to enhance brand stature.
    
3.  Scene performance differentiation: residential self-drinking and gifting scenarios performed well, while government and business consumption remains under pressure. Due to the ongoing impact of the "drinking ban" in May 2025, government and business consumption remains under pressure, with no significant improvement observed. However, as the peak season for liquor consumption, the demand for residential self-drinking and gifting is strong during the Spring Festival. Therefore, the scene differentiation of liquor consumption during the Spring Festival of 2026 is evident. It is expected that as the demand for residential self-drinking and gifting gradually decreases, the demand for liquor will see a short-term decline after the festival.
    
4.  The industry as a whole is still in a bottoming adjustment, but the risks of continued decline in wholesale prices for core products of leading liquor companies and increasing inventory pressure are relatively small. The liquor industry entered a deep adjustment period starting from Q2 2025, and the revenue and profits of leading liquor companies have undergone at least three quarters of significant clearing adjustments. As of the feedback from the Spring Festival of 2026, the wholesale prices of core products represented by Pufei and Puwu have reached the bottom The risk of continued significant decline is relatively small; the core products of leading liquor companies have undergone a deep clearance by 2025, and current inventory levels have basically dropped to a healthy level. The inventory of some products like Pu Fei and Pu Wu has decreased to a low level, and the risk of continued inventory pressure is expected to be small.
    

**Q: Do you think the liquor industry can start a "U-shaped" recovery in 2026? What key factors (such as sales improvement, inventory reduction) that determine the slope of recovery are expected to evolve? Will there be differences in the recovery pace of liquor at different price levels (high-end, mid-high-end, mass market)?**

**Yang Ju:** It is undoubtedly believed that the industry cycle has bottomed out. We believe that there will be a once-in-a-decade opportunity for investment in the liquor industry. 2026 is expected to be the year of recovery for the liquor industry, with the stabilization of Moutai's wholesale price as the core signal. The industry is still in the first stage of recovery. Looking back at the industry adjustment period from 2012 to 2016, the comprehensive recovery of the liquor industry occurred in 2016-2017, while Moutai and Wuliangye basically bottomed out in 2014, leading to a rebound in stock prices in the capital market.

From the perspective of the recovery pace of the industry, we believe it will be led by the leaders, followed by the mass market, and an upgrade of new models. In the last round of adjustment, on one hand, high-end leaders led the industry recovery. In 2013-2014, Moutai expanded its consumer base through recruitment and quota increases, achieving steady sales growth with high cost performance, and the market fundamentals bottomed out first. On the other hand, the mass consumption price level performed relatively well, represented by Yanghe, which smoothly navigated the industry cycle with its Hai Zhi Lan flagship product and deep distribution model.

In this round of the cycle, especially this Spring Festival, we saw that Moutai and Wuliangye's sales performance exceeded expectations. Moutai expanded its consumer base again through i Moutai, and the wholesale price of Feitian stabilized and rebounded from the bottom, reaffirming that the industry recovery is led by the leaders. In the mass price range, the performance of 80-300 yuan sales was relatively stable, and whether regional liquors can achieve performance recovery at the mass price level will be a key focus moving forward.

**Q: What are your predictions and analyses for the 2025 annual reports of listed liquor companies? What are your views on the trends of the liquor sector in 2026?**

**Yang Ju:** Most listed liquor companies have not yet released their 2025 annual reports. From the 2025 third-quarter reports, only Moutai and Fenjiu showed growth. We believe this is, on one hand, a sign that the industry cycle has bottomed out; on the other hand, it indicates the beginning of intensified industry differentiation, rather than a simple continuation of concentration and differentiation trends.

Since the 2025 third-quarter reports, we can summarize three simultaneous occurrences in the liquor industry that can be understood as signs of the industry bottoming out: first, mainstream companies, except for Moutai and Fenjiu, have reported "explosive" performance declines; second, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below the cost price for Moutai distributors; third, Wuliangye has actively lowered its factory price. These three events last occurred simultaneously during the last industry adjustment bottoming out in 2014.

On the other hand, the liquor industry has entered an era of competition among famous liquors and leading players, with strong differentiation trends emerging within listed companies, leading to more intense competition. Although each liquor company is actively managing market order, promoting product iteration, and facilitating consumer activities, they are also increasing expenditure to boost sales, thereby assisting in channel inventory reduction and positively enhancing market share However, in a weak industry cycle, only the top two in each region and price segment can truly generate natural sales.

In the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, we believe that major liquor companies may still face pressure, but excellent companies may achieve performance improvement in the second quarter of 2026. Therefore, looking ahead to 2026, we are more optimistic about investment opportunities in liquor than the market, believing that we are currently in the early stage of demand recovery in the liquor industry. We think there may be structural investment opportunities in leading liquor companies similar to the bottoming out of the industry cycle in 2014-2015.

**Q: Looking ahead to 2026, what are the core trends in the liquor industry regarding product innovation (such as health and fashion), channel transformation, and international layout? Which segments or companies may stand out, and what are the main risk points facing the industry?**

**Yang Ji:** On the product side, health and youthfulness have become the core directions for innovation, exploring more in low-alcohol beverages and scenario integration, adapting to the consumption habits and demands of Generation Z, and organically integrating liquor culture with consumption trends. This includes further enriching consumer cultivation models through cross-border marketing, scenario integration, liquor tourism integration, trendy IP, and cultural and sports events.

On the channel side, new retail is an important direction for future efforts, and at the same time, channels need to gradually transform from selling "products" to selling "lifestyles." The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) model represented by Moutai i Moutai is further popularized; the coverage of instant retail services on platforms like Meituan and JD.com continues to expand, with "half-hour delivery" becoming the new norm for urban liquor consumption. Traditional distributors are accelerating their transformation into comprehensive service providers integrating warehousing, distribution, and services.

In terms of segments and companies, leading liquor companies with brand barriers and innovation capabilities, regional leaders deeply engaged in the mass price segment, and pioneering companies focusing on low-alcohol beverages will stand out. Among them, Moutai consolidates its high-end discourse power through DTC channel transformation and cross-border product matrix, while companies like Jingpai focusing on herbal liquor will benefit from the health consumption trend to open up growth space. In the liquor segment, Jiangxiaobai's Guolifang is gradually becoming another major product following Jiangxiaobai and Meijian, while ultra-premium craft beers like Xinbahe and Niushi are expected to perform well among high-end beverage consumers.

**Q: In addition to the above questions, based on your observations and understanding of the industry, do you have any insights to share? Or could you say a few encouraging words for the industry?**

**Yang Ji:** The difference between investment and industry research is profound. Coming from an industry practitioner background and then transitioning to the secondary sell-side, I have a deep understanding of the differences between industry and investment logic. The liquor industry is a cyclical large industry, currently in a bottom adjustment period, but the medium to long-term trend remains positive.

As a representative of Chinese cultural products, the liquor industry has not been defeated by any foreign brands and even has the potential to become a representative product of China alongside the enhancement of China's international status. With the promotion of national strategies like the "Belt and Road," the global recognition of Chinese liquor is expected to further improve, potentially becoming a product that represents China, similar to Coca-Cola in the United States, and a representative product of Chinese culture in the global market **(This article is part of the "Economics Discussion" series commissioned, and the content is compiled based on public information, analyst opinions, etc.)**

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