--- title: "Jamie Dimon Just Called Inflation \"The Skunk at the Party\"" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281896044.md" description: "Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, released a 48-page shareholder letter warning of rising inflation, referring to it as \"the skunk at the party.\" He cautioned that the ongoing Iran conflict could lead to persistent oil and commodity shocks, keeping interest rates elevated longer than expected. Dimon drew parallels to past recessions driven by oil inflation and expressed concerns about Europe's economic trajectory. This week also features significant bank earnings reports and a crucial CPI print, with expectations of a notable increase in inflation driven by energy costs." datetime: "2026-04-07T13:58:56.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281896044.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281896044.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281896044.md) --- # Jamie Dimon Just Called Inflation "The Skunk at the Party" Trump’s Iran deadline expires tonight. Bank earnings Friday. CPI Wednesday. And Dimon’s 48-page warning letter just landed. ### THE RUNDOWN **WAR ›** Trump’s extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires tonight at 8 PM Eastern. There’s been no breakthrough. On Sunday, Trump posted: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or we will open it for you!” Iran has denied any direct negotiations. If the deadline passes without progress, the next escalation could include strikes on energy infrastructure and bridges. The Pentagon has already positioned Special Operations forces in the region, and reports indicate planning for up to 10,000 additional ground troops. WTI closed at $112.61. > 🇺🇸 President Trump just posted this: > > "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell" pic.twitter.com/ZWNAMX2Vbv > > — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) April 5, 2026 **MACRO ›** Jamie Dimon released his annual shareholder letter this morning, and it reads like a warning siren. At 48 pages, it’s his most alarming yet. He called gradually rising inflation “the skunk at the party” and warned that the Iran war could generate persistent oil and commodity shocks that keep rates elevated far longer than markets expect. He invoked the 1974 and 1982 recessions, both driven by oil-fueled inflation spirals, as historical parallels. On private credit, he noted that losses are already running “a little higher than they should be” relative to current conditions. On Europe: “America needs Europe to succeed, and it’s currently on a bad path.” On sentiment: “Human nature has not changed. Falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.” > JPMorgan $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon just said > > "America needs Europe to succeed — and it's currently on a bad path." > > "I believe we are staring one in the face: the slow but constant decline and fragmentation of Europe. Europe is entering a decisive decade, and it is unable to act. The… pic.twitter.com/UFF3bLoqNA > > — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) April 6, 2026 **MARKETS ›** The S&P 500 snapped its five-week losing streak last week with a 3.4% gain, its best performance in four months. Today it added another 0.44%. That sounds encouraging until you zoom out. The index is still below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for the first time since late 2023. Microsoft closed Q1 down 23%, its worst quarter since 2008. The S&P finished Q1 down roughly 4.6%, the worst quarterly performance in four years. A bounce is not a bottom. > Microsoft $MSFT just closed Q1 down 23% 🔴 its worst quarter since 2008 pic.twitter.com/mB5LnOBfvs > > — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 31, 2026 **EARNINGS ›** This is bank earnings week. JPMorgan ($JPM), Wells Fargo ($WFC), Morgan Stanley ($MS), and BlackRock ($BLK) all report Friday before the open. Given Dimon’s letter today, JPM’s call will be the most closely watched in years. Consensus has JPM at $5.31 EPS. Before that, Levi ($LEVI) reports tonight, Delta ($DAL) and Constellation Brands ($STZ) on Tuesday, and CarMax ($KMX) Wednesday. Every one of these tells you something about the consumer, travel demand, and pricing power in a world where oil is above $112. **DATA ›** Wednesday’s March CPI print is the week’s biggest number. Consensus expects +0.9% month-over-month headline and +0.3% core. That headline number would be the highest monthly reading since the 2022 inflation spike, driven almost entirely by energy costs. FOMC minutes drop Tuesday and will show how worried the Fed was at its March meeting about the war’s inflationary impact. Jobs came in better than expected Friday (unemployment 4.3% vs 4.4% expected), which removes one excuse for the Fed to cut. > We have a busy week on the macro calendar including > > – CPI > – GDP > – FOMC Minutes (and much more) > > Here is the 🇺🇸 Macro calendar for the week – TradingEconomics pic.twitter.com/UTkFzuuegk > > — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) April 5, 2026 ### THE PLAY: What Dimon’s “Skunk at the Party” Actually Means for You Jamie Dimon doesn’t write 48 pages for fun. When the CEO of the largest bank in America invokes the recessions of 1974 and 1982 in the same paragraph, it’s worth reading closely. **The core argument.** Dimon’s thesis is simple: the Iran war is creating an oil and commodity shock that could make inflation “stickier” than anyone expects. And if inflation keeps rising instead of falling, interest rates go higher, not lower. That’s the opposite of what the market has been pricing. He called this scenario “the skunk at the party” for 2026. **The numbers back him up.** Goldman Sachs has already raised its recession probability to 30% and revised its year-end inflation forecast to 3.1% PCE. The OECD bumped its G20 inflation estimate to 4%, up from 2.8%, citing the war as the entire reason. Moody’s AI recession model sits at 49%, and that was measured before the war started. Oil has roughly doubled since January. Gas just hit $4.12 a gallon. **What’s different from his past warnings.** Dimon has been cautious in prior letters, but this one goes further. He flagged cracks in private credit (Blue Owl’s OTIC fund saw 40.7% redemption requests in Q1). He warned that “sentiment and confidence can change rapidly” and that falling asset prices can trigger a self-reinforcing flight to cash. And he said the war’s effects aren’t just about energy. They extend to fertilizers, plastics, and the entire commodity chain that runs through the Gulf. **The positioning takeaway.** CPI on Wednesday will tell you whether the skunk has already arrived. If headline CPI prints above 0.9% month-over-month, rate hike expectations will surge. Bank earnings Friday will show you how JPM, Wells, and Morgan Stanley are positioning their own balance sheets. Pay attention to what they’re doing with credit reserves and loan growth. If the banks are building reserves, they see what Dimon is warning about. That’s your signal. > JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just said at the Hill and Valley forum: > > "Our head count in Manhattan when I got to JPMorgan was 35,000 and now is 26,000. Our head count in Texas started at 11,000, now it's 33,000." pic.twitter.com/7KE9dyTtNO > > — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) April 2, 2026 Thanks for reading! For more updates throughout the week, follow @WOLF\_Financial on X. **_Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. 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