---
title: "Breakfast | Trump Accepts Two-Week Ceasefire, Anthropic Launches Top AI Safety Model"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281943332.md"
description: "A reversal signal emerged in US-Iran negotiations, with US stocks erasing losses. After market close, Trump accepted a two-week ceasefire, stating Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil futures plunged 10%, gold surged, nearing $4800. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures extended gains to 1.7%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.9%, and Russell 2000 index futures gained 2.5%"
datetime: "2026-04-07T23:59:58.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281943332.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281943332.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281943332.md)
---

# Breakfast | Trump Accepts Two-Week Ceasefire, Anthropic Launches Top AI Safety Model

## Market Overview

Trump threatened Iran with the "annihilation of entire civilization," causing the Nasdaq to fall by more than 1.5% intraday and oil to surge 3%. Late Tuesday, as US stocks recovered losses, Pakistan urged the US to extend the ceasefire with Iran by two weeks. The S&P 500 erased a 1.2% decline to end with a slight gain, the Nasdaq posted a small increase, and the Dow Jones fell nearly 0.2%.

After US markets closed, Trump accepted a two-week ceasefire, stating Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil futures plunged 10%, gold surged, nearing $4800. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures extended gains to 1.7%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.9%, and Russell 2000 index futures gained 2.5%.

Anthropic launched a top-tier AI safety model, leading to a general rise in cybersecurity stocks, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains. Reports of engineering challenges with foldable iPhones caused Apple's stock to drop by over 5% at one point, before paring losses.

US Treasury yields initially rose then fell, with the 10-year yield climbing as much as 4.5 basis points before retreating over 8 basis points from its high. The 2-year yield fell 5 basis points. The dollar declined 0.3%, marking its second consecutive day of losses.

During Asian trading, China's A-share major indices fluctuated upwards, with the chemical sector experiencing a surge of stocks hitting their daily limits, active coal stocks, and a surge in chip stocks, with Cambricon jumping 9%.

## Key Developments

> **China**
> 
> "Regulations on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains" released by the State Council: Enhancing security for industrial and supply chains in critical areas.
> 
> China's gold reserves increased by 160,000 ounces month-on-month at the end of March, marking the 17th consecutive month of accumulation.
> 
> Tianfu Communication forecasts 2025 revenue to grow 58.79% and net profit by 50.15%, with a proposed dividend of 7 yuan and a 4-for-1 stock split.
> 
> The AI computing power wave is strong, with High Cloud Computing's Q1 revenue soaring 68% to a new high, and net profit increasing by 35.8%.
> 
> Shannon Semiconductor's 2025 operating profit to grow 182.42%, Q1 net profit surges over 67 times, with its own brand "Haipu Storage" achieving annual profitability for the first time.
> 
> Sugon Information Industry's first-quarter revenue exceeded 3 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 21% year-on-year.
> 
> **Overseas**
> 
> Less than 12 hours after threatening to "destroy civilization," Trump accepted a two-week ceasefire, stating Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran accepted Pakistan's ceasefire proposal.
> 
> China and Russia vetoed a draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz at the UN Security Council. China's UN representative: Cannot grant a pass for the use of force to open passage. Russian representative: Passing the draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent.
> 
> IEA warns: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock surpasses the combined impact of 1973, 1979, and 2022. The global economy is entering a "Black April"!
> 
> US February core capital goods orders rose for the 11th consecutive month, with core durable goods orders increasing by 0.8% month-on-month; aircraft orders dragged down the total value.
> 
> Federal Reserve "Third-in-Command" Williams: The Middle East conflict will push up overall inflation, with inflation expected to be around 2.75% this year.
> 
> Federal Reserve survey: Short-term inflation expectations rise, with expectations for gasoline price increases surging to their highest level since 2022.
> 
> Anthropic announces the development of a mythical model: Claude Mythos, with code and hacking capabilities far surpassing Opus 4.6. Currently, it is only available for trial by tech giants and is not open to the public.
> 
> Claude Code's performance degrades after an update, with reasoning depth dropping by 67%. "It can no longer be trusted to handle complex engineering tasks"!
> 
> Apple's foldable iPhone encounters engineering difficulties, with its stock price once plummeting over 5%, but reports suggest it is still planned for a September release.
> 
> DRAM prices surpass gold prices.

## Market Close Report

**European and US Stock Markets:** S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 6616.85 points. Dow Jones fell 0.18% to 46584.46 points. Nasdaq rose 0.10% to 22017.849 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 1.01% at 590.59 points.

**A-shares:** The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.16 points, up 0.26%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13400.41 points, up 0.36%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3160.82 points, up 0.36%.

**Bond Market:** The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell 1.19 basis points to 4.3188%. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds fell 3.11 basis points to 3.8167%.

**Commodities:** After the US stock market close on Tuesday, WTI crude oil futures widened their losses to 10%. By late New York trading on Tuesday, spot gold rose 1.30% to $4709.73/ounce. Spot silver rose 0.28% to $73.0205/ounce.

## Key Development Details

### **Global Highlights**

#### **China**

"Regulations on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains" released by the State Council: Enhancing security for industrial and supply chains in critical areas. The "Regulations" stipulate the establishment and improvement of a working mechanism for the security of industrial and supply chains. It enhances security assurance for industrial and supply chains in critical areas, establishes and improves information sharing, risk monitoring and early warning, risk prevention, and emergency management systems, and maintains the stable and continuous operation of production and circulation of raw materials, technologies, equipment, and products in critical areas.

China's gold reserves increased by 160,000 ounces month-on-month at the end of March, marking the 17th consecutive month of accumulation! Latest data shows that China's gold reserves at the end of March were 74.38 million ounces, compared to 74.22 million ounces at the end of February. As of the end of March 2026, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was US$3,342.1 billion, a decrease of US$85.7 billion from the end of February, a decrease of 2.5%. The decline in foreign exchange reserves for the month was due to the combined effects of currency translation and asset price changes.

Tianfu Communication forecasts 2025 revenue to grow 58.79% and net profit by 50.15%, with a proposed dividend of 7 yuan and a 4-for-1 stock split. Tianfu Communication achieved an operating revenue of 5.163 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.79%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 2.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.15%. The net cash flow from operating activities in the same period was 1.868 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 48%, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability quality.

The AI computing power wave is strong, with High Cloud Computing's Q1 revenue soaring 68% to a new high, and net profit increasing by 35.8%. The company achieved operating revenue of 4.034 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 68.06%, reaching a new historical high for quarterly revenue; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 687 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.82%. Against the backdrop of accelerating construction of AI computing power infrastructure in China, High Cloud Computing is advancing on both the general computing and artificial intelligence computing markets with its high-performance, high-reliability, and low-power product matrix, with its performance exceeding market expectations.

Shannon Semiconductor's 2025 operating profit to grow 182.42%, Q1 net profit surges over 67 times, with its own brand "Haipu Storage" achieving annual profitability for the first time. Shannon Semiconductor achieved revenues of 35.251 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 544 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.06%. The company's own brand "Haipu Storage" saw revenue growth and achieved annual profitability for the first time. The company expects net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter to be between 1.14 billion and 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6715% to 8747%, with the base in the same period last year being 0.17 billion yuan.

Sugon Information Industry's first-quarter revenue exceeded 3 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 21% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of continued explosive demand for AI computing power infrastructure, Sugon Information Industry is accelerating the realization of market expectations, with first-quarter total operating revenue reaching 3.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.80%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 225 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.88%.

#### **Overseas**

Less than 12 hours after threatening to "destroy civilization," Trump accepted a two-week ceasefire, stating Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran accepted Pakistan's ceasefire proposal. Trump stated that the acceptance of Pakistan's proposal was based on the Iranian government's agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz for shipping "fully, immediately, and safely," which is a bilateral ceasefire agreement. He added that "substantial progress" has been made in reaching a final agreement on peace, and Iran's proposal provides a viable basis for negotiations, with both sides having largely reached consensus on contentious issues.

Iran terminates direct diplomatic relations with the US and continues to communicate through intermediaries. Pakistan proposes a two-week extension, and Trump will respond. Reports indicate good news soon. Reports suggest that "good news" regarding US-Iran negotiations is expected soon, with an agreement to be reached on the evening of April 7th, US time. The mediating Prime Minister of Pakistan proposed that Trump postpone the deadline by two weeks, while Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Iran is reportedly actively considering this proposal, and S&P and Nasdaq have turned higher. Trump stated that the US is engaged in "intense negotiations" regarding the Iran conflict and will receive a full briefing on Pakistan's proposal; he would consider changing strike plans if negotiations progress. Reports indicate a glimmer of progress in US-Iran negotiations, with the White House's focus shifting from whether an agreement can be reached to whether it can be reached before the deadline; Iran's cutting of direct communication after Trump's threat to destroy "entire civilization" was intended to express dissatisfaction.

Iranian military: Prepared "surprises" for Trump's possible reckless actions, including striking Saudi Aramco. An Iranian military source stated that one of the "surprises" includes targeting Saudi Aramco, the Yanbu oil field in the Middle East, and the Fujairah pipeline as potential Iranian targets. The Iranian military statement said that on Tuesday, they struck some important US assets in Saudi Arabia, including a US-funded petrochemical complex.

Israeli forces airstrike Iranian railways and bridges, Iran's largest oil-producing island attacked by US, citizens form human chains to protect power plants and bridges, Trump threatens "annihilation of civilization". Senior Iranian officials stated that they will not participate in talks aimed at a ceasefire. Iran's Kharg Island was attacked again. Kharg Island, located in the northwestern Persian Gulf, is Iran's largest crude oil export base, from which 90% of Iran's crude oil is exported.

China and Russia vetoed a draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz at the UN Security Council. The draft resolution "strongly encouraged" countries wishing to use the commercial shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz to coordinate defensive actions to help ensure the safety and security of navigation in the Strait. The vote in the Security Council was 11 in favor, 2 abstentions, and 2 against. The Iranian representative stated that China and Russia prevented the abuse of the Security Council.

-   China's UN representative: Cannot grant a pass for the use of force to open passage. Russian representative: Passing the draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent. Fu Cong stated in his explanatory remarks after the Security Council vote that the Security Council's actions should focus on de-escalation and cooling down, rather than legitimizing unauthorized military actions, granting a pass for the use of force, and further escalating contradictions and igniting conflicts.

IEA warns: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock surpasses the combined impact of 1973, 1979, and 2022. The global economy is entering a "Black April"! Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), pointed out that over 75 energy facilities in the Gulf region have been attacked, with one-third severely damaged and requiring extensive repairs. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed throughout April, the global loss of crude oil and refined products will be double that of March – "We are entering a Black April."

US February core capital goods orders rose for the 11th consecutive month, with core durable goods orders increasing by 0.8% month-on-month; aircraft orders dragged down the total value. US February non-defense capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft increased by 0.6% month-on-month (expected 0.5%), indicating that US corporate investment intentions remained robust before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.8% month-on-month, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth. However, overall durable goods orders fell by 1.4% month-on-month, below the market expectation of -1.2%, marking the third consecutive month of decline, mainly due to a drop in aircraft orders.

Federal Reserve "Third-in-Command" Williams: The Middle East conflict will push up overall inflation, with inflation expected to be around 2.75% this year. Williams pointed out that despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the overall trend of core inflation has not shown significant changes, but tariffs remain an important factor that cannot be ignored in the inflation outlook. Williams explicitly stated that Powell remains the Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) until a new chairman is confirmed, and gave a positive assessment of the rumored successor candidate Kevin Warsh, calling him "deeply understanding of the Federal Reserve's mission."

Federal Reserve survey: Short-term inflation expectations rise, with expectations for gasoline price increases surging to their highest level since 2022. The latest survey report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that household inflation expectations have risen in the short and medium term, while long-term inflation expectations remain unchanged. Expectations for gasoline price increases have surged to their highest level since March 2022. Job-seeking expectations have improved, while unemployment expectations and expectations for the unemployment rate have worsened. Expectations for spending and household income growth remain largely unchanged. Respondents are more pessimistic about future household financial conditions.

Anthropic announces the development of a mythical model: Claude Mythos, with code and hacking capabilities far surpassing Opus 4.6. Currently, it is only available for trial by tech giants and is not open to the public. Anthropic has launched "Project Glasswing," a collaborative initiative with 12 organizations including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, to conduct cybersecurity defense operations around the new model Claude Mythos Preview. This model's code and reasoning capabilities surpass those of Claude Opus. It has scanned mainstream systems and discovered thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities, including several high-risk vulnerabilities that have existed for over a decade, all of which have been fixed.

Anthropic launches a top-tier AI model, temporarily limited to tech giants for trial, with cybersecurity stocks generally rising. Anthropic has initiated "Project Glasswing," a joint project inviting tech giants such as Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft to test the undisclosed AI model Mythos, aiming to identify cybersecurity vulnerabilities in advance and share the results industry-wide. Anthropic stated that there are currently no plans to release Mythos to the public. The news stimulated a general rise in the cybersecurity sector, with CrowdStrike rising 6.2% and Palo Alto Networks up 4.9%.

Claude Code's performance degrades after an update, with reasoning depth dropping by 67%. "It can no longer be trusted to handle complex engineering tasks"! Stella Laurenzo, AMD's AI Director, based on a quantitative analysis of 6,852 conversation logs, publicly accused Claude Code on GitHub of systematic degradation since February: reasoning depth has dropped by 67%, file reading rate has decreased by 70% before code modification, the number of bad behavior triggers has surged by 173, and API costs have skyrocketed by 122 times. The official response stated that this was due to the default thinking level being lowered, but user feedback indicates that the problem persists even after manually increasing it, causing a serious crisis of trust and a significant loss of users.

Apple's foldable iPhone encounters engineering difficulties, with its stock price once plummeting over 5%, but reports suggest it is still planned for a September release. Nikkei Asia reported that the product encountered technical obstacles during engineering testing, which could lead to a delay of several months, causing Apple's stock price to fall by more than 5% intraday. Bloomberg later cited sources familiar with the matter clarifying that the release plan remains unchanged, although initial supply may be limited. The product is expected to be priced above $2,000, with an iPad-like interface when unfolded, focusing on large-screen productivity.

DRAM prices surpass gold prices. As of April 7th, the price of the latest server DRAM "DDR5 16Gb 4800/5600" chip has soared to $37 per chip, making its price per gram (327,749 Korean won) exceed that of gold (224,630 Korean won). In June last year, the price of this chip was only $6.01.

#### **Research Highlights**

JPMorgan Asset Management: Regarding the situation in Iran, investors have two major misjudgments. A recent report by Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at JPMorgan Asset Management, directly addresses two major risks: US energy independence is not a "firewall" against the blockade of Hormuz – global oil price surges will directly penetrate the US market; and Iran has concluded from the current situation that the "hostage of the global economy" card played by the Strait of Hormuz is more effective than expected, and there is no pressure to make concessions quickly. Beneath the surface calm of the stock market, systemic risks are being severely underestimated.

Consensus Largely Lags Reality! Morgan Stanley: Dual oligopoly of mechanical hard drives is underestimated, supply gap may continue until 2029, gross profit margin could reach the mid-to-high 50% range. Morgan Stanley's latest channel survey shows that the demand and pricing of the mechanical hard drive market are undergoing unprecedented strengthening, with supply shortages expected to continue until calendar year 2028. Based on this, Morgan Stanley reiterates its overweight ratings on Seagate and Western Digital, and upgrades Seagate to "top pick", replacing Western Digital. Morgan Stanley believes that with the accelerated cost reduction of high-capacity technologies such as HAMR and pricing power far exceeding expectations, Seagate and Western Digital are entering a golden window for gross profit margins to reach the mid-to-high 50% range.

Big companies are "slaves," forced to use AI. When personal experiences and work habits are gradually deconstructed, organized, uploaded, and reused, those who diligently write code become "inactive," while those who frequently debug prompts are considered "active adopters of new technologies." A new anxiety has also emerged: are we using AI, or are we fueling AI, gradually turning ourselves into replaceable processes?

#### **Domestic Companies**

Before TSMC's earnings report, JPMorgan screams: Buy! The company's advanced process shortages will continue until 2027. AI computing power demand is soaring, and TSMC's N3 and N2 advanced process capacity orders are fully booked until 2027. The company is actively expanding production, with capital expenditures from 2026 to 2028 expected to reach $190 billion, and global capacity expanding in tandem. JPMorgan believes that driven by full capacity and expedited premiums, its Q1 gross profit margin is expected to exceed expectations and rise to 66.8%. TSMC will announce its Q1 earnings on April 16th.

#### **Global Macro**

US stock market danger signal: Retail investors "no longer buy the dip, sell on rallies"! US retail investors are experiencing the most dangerous behavior reversal since 2020 – they are no longer buying on dips but are continuously selling on rallies. JPMorgan data shows that retail investor buying volume in March plummeted by nearly 50% from the peak in January, with the energy sector experiencing the largest single-week net outflow in history. Retail investors, who were once a "stabilizer" of the US stock market, are collectively retreating to fixed-income safe havens, and market bottom support is quietly eroding.

US raises oil price expectations for this year and next, expecting Middle Eastern countries to shut down 9 million barrels per day of oil production. According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively reduced their crude oil production by 7.5 million barrels per day in March. The EIA expects this figure to rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April. The EIA forecasts that Brent crude, the global benchmark, will average about $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, $24 higher than the previous month's forecast; the average price for the full year is expected to be $96 per barrel.

Global scramble for oil, US oil premium hits historic high. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Middle East oil supply suddenly cut off, Asian and European refiners are scrambling for alternative sources, leading to a historic high premium of $30-40 per barrel for WTI crude spot, and it has rarely surpassed Brent. US state-owned refining companies are caught between a rock and a hard place – they need to ensure supply while bearing sky-high procurement costs. Traders frankly stated: It might be more profitable to buy refined oil than to refine it.

Under the shadow of the Hormuz blockade, Saudi Arabia's oil revenue in March increased by 4.3% instead of decreasing, while Iran's increased by 37%. Under the threat of the Hormuz blockade, the fortunes of Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have diverged sharply: Saudi Arabia's oil revenue in March increased by 4.3% due to the detour of pipeline oil, while Iran's revenue surged by 37% due to soaring oil prices. Iraq, heavily reliant on the Strait's passage, suffered the most severe decline of -76%. Geographical location is becoming a decisive variable in wealth redistribution during this crisis.

Foreign media reports: Japanese government fuel subsidies burn approximately 600 billion yen per month, with funds potentially running out in three months. Japan is facing an imminent fuel subsidy crisis – monthly subsidy expenditures of up to 600 billion yen are straining government finances, with existing funds lasting at most three months. Combined with summer electricity subsidies, monthly spending could reach 900 billion yen. A ruling Liberal Democratic Party senator bluntly stated that "the era of cheap imported Middle Eastern oil has ended," warning that prolonged subsidies will increase national debt, depress the yen, and accelerate inflation.

Iran's two major copper smelters suspected of halting production, adding more uncertainty to Middle East supply. The combined annual capacity of the two smelters is over 370,000 tons. Compared to oil and gas facilities, the metal smelting industry is more dependent on a stable operating environment. Once the power grid, logistics, or safety conditions deteriorate, companies are often forced to "stop first and think later," making supply-side shocks more sudden and unpredictable. A recent Goldman Sachs report suggests that energy shocks may suppress demand, and copper prices face downward risks.

An overlooked supply shock: 70% of Iran's steel production capacity may evaporate. Israel's strikes on Iranian steel plants reportedly destroyed 70% of its production capacity – over 20 million tons of annual capacity evaporated instantly. Citi warns that this is a structural supply gap severely underestimated by the market: 9 million tons of net exports will quickly exit the global trade flow, global steel prices will face upward pressure, coking coal demand may increase by an additional 6 to 7 million tons, and the supply-demand imbalance may last for several quarters.

#### **Overseas Companies**

Report: SpaceX has finalized IPO details, plans to begin roadshow in June. SpaceX has reportedly disclosed key IPO details to its underwriting team, planning to launch its roadshow the week of June 8th, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history. The biggest highlight is the retail investor allocation: the CFO explicitly stated that the retail investor allocation proportion will exceed that of any previous IPO, and a dedicated session for 1,500 retail investors will be held on June 11th. The prospectus is expected to be released in late May.

Exposing another side of Altman: Lies, power struggles, and a trillion-dollar gamble. As OpenAI rushes towards a trillion-dollar valuation, its leader Altman is embroiled in a crisis of trust over "lies." As the company embraces capital and ventures into sensitive areas, the bottom line of "safety" has been quietly eroded. When the ultimate key to AGI is entrusted to an ambitious individual who navigates the boundaries between reality and fiction, are humans facing a genius who will change the world, or a grand deception that cannot be verified?

Intel enters Musk's "Terafab," joining forces to build a 1 Terawatt AI computing power empire. Intel has officially announced its participation in Musk's "Terafab" project, collaborating with SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI to achieve an annual AI computing power target of 1 Terawatt. This move could open a significant window for Intel's long-sought foundry business. However, the details of the collaboration remain vague, and the market is waiting to see if it can be truly realized.

Amidst private credit market crisis, Blackstone's opportunistic credit fund raises $10 billion and is oversubscribed. Blackstone Group has raised $10 billion for its latest opportunistic credit fund, highlighting the continued strong interest from institutional investors amidst the turbulence in the private credit market. This is Blackstone's largest opportunistic credit fundraising to date.

## Today's Key News Outlook

Trump's deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran.

NATO Secretary General visits the US to meet with Trump.

Federal Reserve releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks.

Eurozone February PPI.

US EIA crude oil inventory changes last week.

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