--- title: "Multiple brokerages predict that the banking industry is expected to undergo steady recovery" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/281995311.md" description: "Multiple brokerage firms analyze that the Chinese banking industry is expected to achieve steady recovery in 2025, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. China Merchants Securities points out that the industry will exhibit characteristics of performance differentiation, steady growth in scale, and improvement in asset quality. With the macroeconomic recovery and policy support, the profitability of the banking sector will remain resilient, and the competitive advantages of high-quality banks will become more pronounced. Huatai Securities suggests paying attention to the stabilization of net interest margin and the potential for growth in non-interest income" datetime: "2026-04-08T07:33:09.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281995311.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281995311.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281995311.md) --- # Multiple brokerages predict that the banking industry is expected to undergo steady recovery \[Global Network Finance Comprehensive Report\] More than half of the A-share listed banks have disclosed their 2025 annual reports. According to the latest research report from Huatai Securities, the performance growth rate of listed banks is expected to improve in 2025, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 1.4% and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively, mainly benefiting from the stabilization of interest margin and non-interest income boost. China Merchants Securities believes that the banking industry in 2025 will exhibit core characteristics of "performance differentiation, stable growth in scale, improving asset quality, and steady dividends." In terms of performance, the industry's profitability remains resilient but shows significant differentiation. The net profit growth rate of state-owned banks has improved compared to the first three quarters, while differentiation among joint-stock banks has intensified, with leading city commercial banks taking the lead. Asset scale is steadily growing, interest margins are stable, and the growth rate of net interest income is rebounding. Overall, the growth rate of listed banks' asset scale is basically stable compared to the first three quarters, while the growth rate of loans has slightly declined. Looking ahead to 2026, China Merchants Securities believes that with the macroeconomic recovery, continued policy support, optimization of bank business structure, and gradual alleviation of risks, the industry is expected to see steady performance recovery, supported by high dividend attributes, with sector valuations expected to achieve moderate recovery, further highlighting the differentiated competitive advantages of high-quality banks. CITIC Construction Investment states that as the decline in interest margins narrows, and with other non-interest burdens being relatively small, revenue is expected to continue improving, and profits can maintain stable growth. Currently, with the actual operations and expectations of the banking industry further solidifying at the bottom, the sector has strong defensive and hedging attributes, primarily to hedge against the market. Within the sector, there may be frequent rotations based on short-term fundamentals and dividend yield comparisons, suggesting a focus on high-quality targets with excellent fundamentals and solid dividend yields. Tianfeng Securities believes that under the influence of the "dislocation" operation between credit and deposits, banks have maintained a relatively ample position this year, reflected in a generally stable first quarter and further easing in the second quarter, with funding interest rates smoothly declining. Huatai Securities suggests focusing on: first, the stabilization of the net interest margin of listed banks in the fourth quarter of 2025, driving an increase in the growth rate of net interest income; second, the recovery growth of non-interest income, with differentiation in growth rates; third, the marginal acceleration of scale growth of listed banks, with a continued trend towards time deposits; fourth, improvement in on-balance-sheet non-performing loans, although risks in retail and other areas have shown some fluctuations. 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