--- title: "\"Big Banks\" JP Morgan: Alibaba's quarterly results may redefine market observation indicators, lowering the target price to 195 yuan" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282126775.md" description: "JP Morgan released a report stating that Alibaba will announce its performance in the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure in China, and its stock price has been significantly revalued. It is expected that customer management revenue (CMR) will grow by 4% to 9%, external revenue from cloud business will grow by about 40%, but losses from \"other businesses\" will approach 20 billion yuan. Morgan Stanley lowered the target price to 195 yuan and maintained an \"overweight\" rating, believing that the market has misjudged expectations for CMR and \"other businesses,\" and future quarterly results may redefine market observation indicators" datetime: "2026-04-09T02:20:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282126775.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282126775.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282126775.md) --- # "Big Banks" JP Morgan: Alibaba's quarterly results may redefine market observation indicators, lowering the target price to 195 yuan JP Morgan's research report indicates that Alibaba (09988.HK) will announce its performance in the first quarter of 2026 (March quarter). Boosted by the prospects of China's artificial intelligence infrastructure construction, its stock price has been significantly revalued, with revenue growth from cloud computing being the main financial support. The market generally expects customer management revenue (CMR) to achieve a growth of 4% to 9% this quarter, with external revenue growth from cloud business around 40%, while "other businesses" are expected to incur losses of 10 billion to 15 billion yuan. E-commerce remains the main profit contributor, but investors generally believe that as long as the performance is "stable," it is acceptable. The bank believes that the market has misjudged expectations for two of the three items, estimating that Alibaba's reported CMR growth rate will be around 1%, while losses from "other businesses" will approach 20 billion yuan. It expects the cloud business to align with expectations. The overall impact on consolidated EBITA is slightly negative, but more importantly, it is about the "composition structure" rather than the magnitude. JP Morgan believes that the stock price will perform poorly in the early part of this quarter due to CMR figures, and the company's future quarterly reports may redefine market observation indicators. If the company discloses "comparable CMR" in its financial report and investors focus on EBITA trends, the decline will be limited. A more persistent risk lies in excessive investment in Qianwen. If management can credibly frame the Spring Festival spending as "one-time" and guide significantly reduced spending in future quarters, this quarter will become a "clearing event"—consolidated profits hitting bottom, followed by improvement. If not, the market will begin to price in the "open-ended consumption AI investment cycle," compounded by the drag from takeout, leading to a compression in e-commerce valuations. The bank leans towards the former but has limited confidence in the future trend of "Qianwen." Regarding the fundamentals of e-commerce, the bank is more confident: it believes that flat EBITA, while insufficient to drive revaluation alone, is a positive direction, and with the improvement of competitive baselines, there should be further enhancements in the coming quarters. The bank maintains an "overweight" rating on Alibaba (09988.HK) and lowers the target price from 200 yuan to 195 yuan, corresponding to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times for the fiscal year 2028, with core e-commerce valued at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times for the fiscal year 2026 and cloud business valued at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 6 times for the fiscal year 2026 ### Related Stocks - [BABA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [513770.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/513770.CN.md) - [512380.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512380.CN.md) - [KBAB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KBAB.US.md) - [KWEB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KWEB.US.md) - [BABX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABX.US.md) - [513040.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/513040.CN.md) - [159998.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159998.CN.md) - [CLOU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CLOU.US.md) - [159621.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159621.CN.md) - [BABO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Alibaba Files Form 13F as Investment Manager, Highlights WVR Structure](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286686984.md) - [Alibaba's Quarterly Profitability Still Under Pressure](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286243675.md) - [Nebius stock spikes after earnings. 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