--- title: "Oil prices surge, this index has a high \"oil\" content" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282160826.md" description: "Recently, the situation in the Middle East has changed rapidly, and the market's view on oil prices has shifted to the expectation that high oil prices will persist. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of April is only 22%. Different oil and gas indices have varying exposure directions along the industry chain, with the midstream and upstream resource segments benefiting more directly from high oil prices. The National Index of Oil and Gas shows a similar trend to Brent crude oil futures prices, indicating sensitivity to oil price fluctuations. High oil prices are more favorable for the midstream and upstream segments, as their profit improvements are more direct" datetime: "2026-04-09T08:34:09.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282160826.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282160826.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282160826.md) --- # Oil prices surge, this index has a high "oil" content Recently, the situation in the Middle East has changed rapidly. If the market was previously discussing "whether oil prices will rise," the real divergence now has become: how long will high oil prices last? According to the latest predictions from Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of April is only 22%, while the combined probability of neutral and pessimistic scenarios reaches 78%, indicating that global funds do not believe supply will recover quickly, and the market has begun to seriously price in the notion of "sustained high oil prices." **Table: Oil Price Scenario Judgments Corresponding to Expectations for Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz** Data Source: Data from Polymarket, as of April 1, 2026 In this round of market trends, the focus has quietly shifted. Rather than broadly discussing "whether the oil and gas sector will benefit," it is more worthwhile to further analyze: although they all belong to the oil and gas index, different indices have different exposure directions in the industrial chain, and there are significant differences in their mapping efficiency to high oil prices. Some are closer to the midstream and upstream resource segments, with more direct profit transmission; others cover a broader range, making their performance more susceptible to dilution from the midstream and downstream segments. During the oil price upturn phase, these structural differences often further amplify the performance of the indices. For this reason, indices that are more fully exposed to the midstream and upstream resource segments typically better reflect the benefits in a high oil price environment. **Figure: Comparison of the National Index Oil and Gas Index and Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Trends (April 2025 - March 2026)** Data Source: Data from Wind; weights as of April 1, 2026. A historical comparison of the National Index Oil and Gas Index and Brent Crude Oil Futures prices shows that their trends are generally aligned, with prominent interactivity. During the sustained oil price upturn phase, the index can closely track changes in oil prices, fully reflecting its sensitivity to oil and gas price fluctuations and efficient mapping capabilities, which highly align with the structural characteristics of the index focusing on midstream and upstream resource segments. **I. First Look at the Industrial Chain: Why High Oil Prices Favor Midstream and Upstream** When oil prices rise, the first to improve profitability is often not the entire industrial chain, but rather the midstream and upstream resource segments that are closer to the source of oil price transmission. The reason is not complicated: oil and gas extraction, oil services, equipment, and transportation segments can more easily convert changes in oil prices directly into profit improvements; while refining, trading, and gas supply in the midstream and downstream segments, although also part of the oil and gas industrial chain, often face stronger cost transmission pressures and profit dilution. **Figure 1: Distribution of the National Index Oil and Gas Index in the Industrial Chain** Data source: Data from Wind; weights as of March 31, 2026. From the perspective of the industrial chain structure, the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index allocates more to upstream resource segments such as energy equipment, oil service engineering, oil and gas extraction, and oil and gas transportation, while allocating relatively less to midstream and downstream segments such as refining and trading. Therefore, it is closer to the most direct beneficiaries in a high oil price environment. This means that when the market is trading on the main line of "sustained high oil prices - improvement in upstream resource segment profits," the mapping efficiency of the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index will be higher. **II. Looking at the constituent stocks: Which index has more upstream assets** The position in the industrial chain determines the benefit direction of the index, while the structure of constituent stocks directly determines profit elasticity and benefit magnitude. In a high oil price environment, leading companies in upstream resources and equipment in the oil and gas industry chain usually achieve profit improvement first, with higher sensitivity to oil price fluctuations and more direct transmission. The Guozheng Oil and Gas Index has a higher weight in the top ten constituent stocks and core upstream assets, focusing more on quality targets whose profit improvement can be directly driven by rising oil prices. **Figure 2 Comparison of upstream exposure among three oil and gas indices** Data source: Data from Wind, as of March 31, 2026. The upstream segment includes the three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC) and other constituent stocks in the oil and gas extraction, oil service engineering, specialized equipment, and general equipment industries belonging to the Shenwan secondary industry. From the comparison of index structures, the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index has an upstream exposure of 67.0%, the highest among the three indices, with significant weight advantages in the oil and gas extraction and specialized equipment sectors; the CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index is more inclined towards oil service engineering and specialized equipment, while the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index has a relatively balanced distribution. Furthermore, more than two-thirds of the weight of this index is concentrated in the upstream resource segment, providing a purer coverage of the core beneficiary areas of high oil prices, aligning more closely with the current market trend of rising oil prices. **Figure 3 Proportion of upstream segment in the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index** Data source: Data from Wind, as of March 31, 2026. The upstream segment includes the three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC) and other constituent stocks in the oil and gas extraction, oil service engineering, specialized equipment, and general equipment industries belonging to the Shenwan secondary industry Overall, the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index reflects the performance of high oil price cycles more directly due to its higher allocation to midstream and upstream resource segments and core leading companies. For investors looking to position themselves in a high oil price market, **E Fund Oil ETF (159181)** is a relatively efficient and convenient allocation tool. 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