First Tentative Moves Post-Ceasefire: Two Japanese VLCCs Head Toward Hormuz, Each Carrying 2 Million Barrels of Crude Oil

Following the US-Iran ceasefire, the oil tanker fleet stranded in the Persian Gulf for over a month has shown its first tentative movements, but the outlook for passage remains fraught with uncertainty. According to media reports, two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) under Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL)—the Mayasan and the Yakumosan—began sailing eastward through the Persian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening local time. Each vessel carries approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil and has been anchored in waters near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, since mid-March. Simultaneously, a Greek-flagged product tanker, the Sea Condor, is also moving toward Hormuz. However, the timeline for reopening the passage remains blurred. Trump announced a ceasefire earlier this week and stated that Hormuz would be "completely open," but on Thursday he criticized Iran for its "very bad" performance in releasing tankers. Traffic through the strait slowed again after a brief recovery over the weekend, with most shipowners indicating that the current situation remains unclear and does not yet meet the conditions for a transit attempt. Fleet Gathers, Tentative Eastward Move Since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February, hundreds of ships have been trapped in the approximately 1,000-kilometer Persian Gulf waterway. Following the announcement of the ceasefire agreement, some shipowners have begun reassessing their options, and vessels are gradually gathering toward the entrance of Hormuz. The Mayasan sailed into the Persian Gulf a few days before the conflict erupted, loading crude oil in the UAE and Saudi Arabia in late February, with its destination indicated as the northern Japanese port of Tomakomai. The Yakumosan also entered the Persian Gulf in late February, receiving Qatari crude from a floating storage unit in early March before supplementing its cargo at Juaymah, Saudi Arabia. It subsequently anchored near Ras Tanura for several weeks; its current destination is marked as a rendezvous point near Das Island, UAE. The Greek product tanker Sea Condor entered the Persian Gulf around the same time, loaded fuel in Kuwait, and is currently sailing toward Sharjah. The vessel's owner, Turandot Marine Co., shares contact information with its manager, Athens-based Pantheon Tankers Management, which did not respond to requests for comment. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines: Safety First, Cautious Stance Both VLCCs are managed by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. The shipping database Equasis shows that the Mayasan is owned by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, while the owner of the Yakumosan, Phoenix Ocean Corp., shares the same registered address as Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines President Jotaro Tamura stated on Thursday that the company will not permit its tankers to attempt passage through the Strait of Hormuz until the details and implementation of the ceasefire are fully verified. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines had already withdrawn at least one vessel from the Persian Gulf before the ceasefire was reached this week. Regarding the eastward movement of these two vessels, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines stated it could not comment on the "navigation status or operational measures of individual vessels," reiterating that the company's top priority is the safety of its crew, cargo, and vessels. Sanctions Risks and Passage Hurdles Exist Even though the ceasefire agreement is in effect, shipowners face obstacles beyond security concerns. It is reported that Iran is demanding certain fees from vessels in exchange for safe passage, and such payments could expose the relevant companies to legal risks of violating sanctions regulations, putting owners in a dilemma. Currently, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low. According to Bloomberg tracking data, vessels transiting after the ceasefire have primarily been those with Iranian affiliations. Although the Trump administration maintains an optimistic stance on the reopening of the strait, his public criticism on Thursday indicates that the disagreement between the US and Iran over passage arrangements has not been resolved. In this context, the eastward movement of the Mayasan and Yakumosan is being interpreted by the market more as a tentative repositioning than a clear signal of imminent transit. The energy market's expectation for the normalization of Hormuz transit still awaits further substantive progress for verification.