--- title: "The Middle East conflict impacts the global economy, and the IMF will revise down its growth forecast" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282319766.md" description: "International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva stated that due to the impact of the Middle East war, the IMF will revise down its global economic growth forecast, expecting to provide $50 billion in emergency aid, and at least 45 million people will face food shortages. The conflict has led to soaring energy costs, damaged infrastructure, and declining market confidence, with low-income energy-importing countries being hit harder. The IMF also expects a revision upward of the overall global inflation" datetime: "2026-04-10T09:22:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282319766.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282319766.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282319766.md) --- # The Middle East conflict impacts the global economy, and the IMF will revise down its growth forecast (Agence France-Presse Washington, 9th) Kristalina Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated today that due to the impact of the Middle East war, the IMF will revise down its global economic growth forecast and warned that even if a fragile ceasefire is maintained, the conflict will leave a "scar effect." Georgieva indicated that despite the IMF's most optimistic outlook, rising energy costs, damaged infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and declining market confidence will all lead to global economic growth being lower than previously expected. The IMF estimates that it will need to provide up to $50 billion in emergency aid to countries affected by the war, with at least 45 million people facing food shortages. Georgieva said, "Considering the spillover effects of the war, we expect the demand for IMF balance of payments assistance to increase by $20 billion to $50 billion in the short term; if the ceasefire continues, demand may approach the lower end of the range." She made these remarks at the opening of the annual spring meeting co-hosted by the IMF and the World Bank. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, which immediately retaliated, plunging the Middle East into large-scale conflict, causing supply disruptions, and leading to a significant surge in oil prices after Iran nearly blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran agreed to suspend attacks on the 7th, but subsequently accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, with both sides scheduled to begin a new round of negotiations on the 11th in search of a more lasting peace. Georgieva emphasized that the impact of this crisis on countries is "not symmetrical," with low-income energy-importing countries being hit much harder than others. The World Bank stated that the Middle East region has already borne "severe and immediate economic costs" due to Iran's retaliatory attacks on multiple Gulf countries and Israel's military actions against Lebanon. The World Bank pointed out that excluding Iran, the overall economic growth rate in the Middle East is expected to slow to only 1.8% by 2026, a downward revision of 2.4 percentage points from pre-war forecasts. The IMF also anticipates an upward revision of the global overall inflation forecast due to oil price and supply shocks. Leaders from the IMF, World Bank, and World Food Programme met yesterday in Washington to discuss the economic and food security impacts of the war. After the meeting, the three parties issued a joint statement saying, "The significant rise in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, coupled with transportation bottlenecks, will inevitably drive up food prices and exacerbate food shortages." The IMF and World Bank have established a coordination group to address the impact of the war on energy markets, with a senior meeting of the group scheduled for the 13th. 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