--- title: "Bitcoin Flashes ‘Dangerous’ Macro Fractal – What To Expect For Price" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282423500.md" description: "Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a concerning similarity to the 2022 sell-off, with analysts warning of a potential drop from the current price of $72,756 to between $40,000 and $50,000. This pattern mirrors the previous cycle's structure, indicating a possible final capitulation. The recent death cross in moving averages further supports this bearish outlook, although a subsequent accumulation phase could lead to a new bull cycle." datetime: "2026-04-11T17:30:01.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282423500.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282423500.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282423500.md) --- # Bitcoin Flashes ‘Dangerous’ Macro Fractal – What To Expect For Price Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing an uncomfortable comparison to one of the most brutal sell-offs in its history, and at least one analyst believes the worst may still be ahead. This technical outlook is looking at the current price action as a mirror of the 2022 macro fractal sequence that sent Bitcoin from $69,000 to a cycle low near $15,500, implying that the current cycle could see a similar drop. ****A 2022 Repeat? The Fractal That Raises Concerns**** Crypto analyst philarekt posted a warning on X this week, identifying what he described as “the most dangerous macro fractal” currently playing out in Bitcoin’s price structure. The technical case rests on a side-by-side comparison of two weekly Bitcoin charts: the 2021 to 2023 cycle on the left and the current cycle on the right. In the 2021 chart, Bitcoin reached a peak price above $69,000 and proceeded to form a 3-tap structure, which are three distinct lower highs arranged within a descending channel, each bounce rejected before a final capitulation leg lower. The price ultimately fell 34% from the final tap to the absolute cycle bottom in a move that caught many market participants off-guard. The current chart, with a cycle peak at $126,000 in October 2025, shows the same architecture forming in almost identical proportion. Both the 2022 and 2026 panels show Bitcoin respecting a slanted resistance line at the top while gradually falling within a downward channel. Each bounce fails to break out, and eventually the price has created successive lower lows. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @philarekt On X ****What Happens If The Fractal Completes?**** The weekly RSI, which tracks momentum, is following the same pattern observed in 2022. Lastly, there’s a moving average death cross on the Bitcoin price chart, where the short-term average has crossed below a long-term average. This death cross appeared in early March when the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed below the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). An equivalent 50/200 SMA death cross appeared in 2022 after Bitcoin was already down 58% from its high, and the cryptocurrency then declined a further 46% before finding a bottom. If the sequence continues to play out as outlined, Bitcoin could be heading to a final capitulation move into the range between $40,000 and $50,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,756, up by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. The projected decline is taken directly from the 2022 template: a 34% decline from the current price zone would place the Bitcoin price within that range. However, the outlook is not entirely bearish after that scenario. The same fractal that points to a breakdown also points to what comes next. The capitulation in 2022 led the transition into accumulation that built the foundation for the next bull cycle. _Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView_ ### Related Stocks - [WGMI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WGMI.US.md) - [CONL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CONL.US.md) - [IBLC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBLC.US.md) - [GBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBTC.US.md) - [BKCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BKCH.US.md) - [HUT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HUT.US.md) - [BTF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTF.US.md) - [COIN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COIN.US.md) - [BTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTC.US.md) - [OWNB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OWNB.US.md) - [BITO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITO.US.md) - [STCE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/STCE.US.md) - [BTCS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCS.US.md) - [CLSK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CLSK.US.md) - [BITF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITF.US.md) - [SATO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SATO.US.md) - [HIVE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HIVE.US.md) - [FDIG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FDIG.US.md) - [BRRR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRRR.US.md) - [FBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBTC.US.md) - [BLCN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BLCN.US.md) - [BTCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCO.US.md) - [IBIT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBIT.US.md) - [BTCW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCW.US.md) - [EZBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EZBC.US.md) - [ABTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ABTC.US.md) - [MARA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MARA.US.md) - [WULF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WULF.US.md) - [ARKB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARKB.US.md) - [MNRS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MNRS.US.md) - [BCOR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BCOR.US.md) - [BTCHKD.VAHK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCHKD.VAHK.md) - [BTCUSD.VAHK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCUSD.VAHK.md) ## Related News & Research - [BlackRock Strikes Fresh Crypto Partnership As Bitcoin ETFs Continue To Boom](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284410109.md) - [Jack Dorsey Teases 'See All The Bits' As Block's Self-Custody Bitcoin Wallet Gets This Upgrade](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284342125.md) - [Riot Platforms Q1 revenue rises, beating estimates](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284827307.md) - [Blockstream Mining Note 2 (BMN2) - Bitcoin 2026 - 27–29 April 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284109686.md) - [What TeraWulf (WULF)'s US$900 Million Equity Raise Means For Shareholders](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284091383.md)