--- title: "Breakfast | US-Iran Talks End \"Without Result,\" US to Blockade Strait of Hormuz" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282459190.md" description: "In early trading on Monday, Asian time, Brent crude and WTI crude futures jumped 8% at the open as US-Iran negotiations stalled. Futures for the three major US stock indexes opened down over 1%, and the dollar rose over 0.4%, while spot gold and spot silver opened down over 2%" datetime: "2026-04-12T23:10:09.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282459190.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282459190.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282459190.md) --- # Breakfast | US-Iran Talks End "Without Result," US to Blockade Strait of Hormuz ## Market Overview On Friday, US stocks opened slightly higher after the release of US CPI data. However, as consumer confidence from the University of Michigan fell to a historic low and coupled with uncertain prospects for US-Iran negotiations over the weekend, US stock indexes diverged. The S&P 500 fell 0.11%, but still recorded its best weekly gain of the year. Semiconductors remained strong, reaching new highs and supporting the Nasdaq's 0.35% rise. Chip manufacturers led the semiconductor sector, with Broadcom up 4.7% and Nvidia up 2.6%. Intel rose 1%, and for the week, it gained 24%, marking its best weekly performance since January 2000. CoreWeave surged 10.9%. Financial stocks were under pressure ahead of major bank earnings reports. On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.32%. The yield for US Treasuries fluctuated around the same level throughout the week, declining first and then rising. The dollar fell for two consecutive days, dropping a cumulative 1.5% for the week. Spot gold closed slightly down 0.2%, but still closed up about 1.6% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly gain. It has risen over 18% since testing the 200-day moving average low on March 23rd. WTI crude futures for May fell 1.33%, a significant pullback from its weekly high, and recorded its largest weekly drop since 2020, but remained well above pre-war levels. In early trading on Monday, Asian time, Brent crude and WTI crude futures jumped 8% at the open as US-Iran negotiations stalled. Futures for the three major US stock indexes opened down over 1%, the dollar rose over 0.4%, and spot gold and spot silver opened down over 2%. ## Key News > **China** > > The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council authorized the release of ten policy measures to promote cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation. > > **Overseas** > > US-Iran negotiations end without results. Iran stated it was "due to US greed and ambition," while Vance stated they "demonstrated flexibility and sincerity and will return to the US." Trump: If Iran refuses to compromise, the US will control the Strait of Hormuz to cripple Iran's economy; negotiations are progressing smoothly except for the nuclear issue, and the US will blockade the Strait of Hormuz; Iran will not be allowed to profit from selling oil. US Central Command: Maritime traffic at Iranian ports will be blockaded starting April 13th. > > US-Iran negotiations end without results, with the Strait of Hormuz becoming one of the biggest sticking points. US forces' high-profile "mine clearance" was met with a warning and sinking by Iran. The three major sticking points in the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations: the Strait of Hormuz, enriched uranium, and billions in frozen funds. > > The "hallmark event" of AI panic: Altman's house was almost bombed. From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, Anthropic has stolen all the limelight from OpenAI. > > "Crude oil trading giant" Vitol heavily impacted by the Iran conflict, Chinese celebrity derivatives trader suffers massive losses. ## Market Close European and US Stocks: S&P 500 fell 0.11% to 6816.89 points, a weekly gain of 3.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.56% to 47916.57 points, a weekly gain of 3.04%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.35% to 22902.894 points, a weekly gain of 4.68%. A-shares: Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.22 points, up 0.51%. Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14309.47 points, up 2.24%. ChiNext Index closed at 3448.79 points, up 3.78%. Bonds: The yield on the 10-year US benchmark Treasury note rose 3.97 basis points to 4.3150%, with a weekly decline of 2.36 basis points. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury note rose 3.48 basis points to 3.8015%, with a weekly decline of 4.01 basis points. Commodities: WTI crude futures for May closed down 1.33% at $96.57 per barrel, marking the largest weekly decline since 2020. Brent crude futures for June closed at $95.20 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.34% to $4750.39 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 1.57%. ## Details of Key News ### **Global Highlights** #### **China** Ten policy measures to promote cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation authorized by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. Promote the resumption of individual travel to Taiwan (mainland) for residents of Shanghai and Fujian Province. Promote the linking of water, electricity, gas, and bridges between the coastal areas of Fujian and Kinmen and Matsu, thereby enhancing the welfare of the people of Kinmen and Matsu. Promote the comprehensive resumption of normal direct cross-Strait air passenger flights, further facilitate cross-Strait travel, and support the early resumption of cross-Strait flights from cities such as Urumqi, Xi'an, Harbin, Kunming, and Lanzhou, as well as support the joint use of the new Xiamen airport by Kinmen. **Overseas** US-Iran negotiations end without results, Iran states "due to US greed and ambition," Vance states "demonstrated flexibility and sincerity and will return to the US". The Iranian side stated that it is not in a hurry to negotiate with the US again, and due to "US greed and ambition," no agreement has been reached. US Vice President Vance stated on April 12th that the US side has demonstrated "considerable flexibility and sincerity" in the negotiations. During the approximately 21-hour negotiation process, the US delegation maintained communication with President Trump and the National Security Council, and has presented Iran with a "final proposal" awaiting a response. Trump threatens: If Iran refuses to compromise, the US will control the Strait of Hormuz to cripple Iran's economy. After the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, Trump threatened that if Iran does not yield, the US military will control the Strait of Hormuz and cut off Iran's oil exports. Iran insists that passage through the strait must obtain Iran's permission, and the two sides are fundamentally opposed on the issue of control. Currently, passage through the strait is extremely limited, with all ships passing under Iranian surveillance. Trump: Negotiations progressing smoothly except for the nuclear issue, the US will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that he "has instructed the US Navy to intercept and inspect all vessels paying transit fees to Iran in international waters. Any vessel paying 'illegal transit fees' will not have safe passage on the high seas. The US military will also begin clearing the mines laid by Iran in the strait." Trump: Iran will not be allowed to profit from selling oil. US President Trump said in an interview with Fox News Channel on the 12th that the US will not allow Iran to profit from selling oil. Trump also said in the interview that Iran "has not left the negotiating table yet." "I predict they (Iran) will come back and give us everything we want. I've told my team, I want it all." US Central Command: Maritime traffic at Iranian ports will be blockaded starting April 13th. US Central Command forces will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports starting at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on April 13th. The statement said that this blockade will equally apply to vessels of all nationalities entering and exiting Iranian ports and their coastal areas, including all Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It will not impede vessels traveling to and from non-Iranian ports from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran negotiations end without results, Strait of Hormuz becomes one of the biggest sticking points, US forces' high-profile "mine clearance" met with a warning and sinking by Iran. The highest-level formal diplomatic contact between the US and Iran since 1979 ended without results after 21 hours of negotiations. During the negotiations, a military confrontation occurred in the Strait of Hormuz - a US destroyer forcibly crossed, and Iran issued a "sink in 30 minutes" warning. Both sides eventually backed down. A former US ambassador directly stated that the possibility of reaching a substantive agreement on core disagreements was "zero." Three major sticking points in the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations: Strait of Hormuz, enriched uranium, and billions in frozen funds. Iran rejected the US demand for "joint control" of the Strait of Hormuz, insisting on control and toll collection rights. The US demanded that Iran hand over about 900 pounds of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium inventory, and Iran's counterproposal was not compromised. Iran requested the unfreezing of approximately $27 billion in overseas assets for post-war reconstruction, which was rejected by the US. However, some analysts believe that the fact that the talks lasted so long without breaking down indicates positive momentum. US-Iran negotiations break down, two supertankers turn around in the Strait of Hormuz. Three supertankers, not directly related to Iran, sailed near the Strait of Hormuz late Saturday night. Two of the empty tankers suddenly turned around upon approaching a key checkpoint, at the same time US-Iran negotiations were declared a failure. The third tanker continued into the Persian Gulf. During the negotiations, US destroyers transited the strait, and Iran responded strongly, stating that passage rights were entirely under its control. No agreement reached between the US and Iran, what does this mean for the market? In the short term, crude oil will regain risk premium support, and whether gold can follow depends on the continuation of geopolitical risks. Sectors that had previously rebounded on ceasefire expectations, such as aviation and transportation, face pressure for correction. In the long term, if the strait remains blocked, energy costs will be transmitted to inflation expectations, and long-duration assets like bonds will face pressure. The key variable for the market is whether it begins to price in the baseline scenario of "the strait will not open in the short term." Negotiations fail, what are the possible developments in the Iranian situation? The US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad ended without results, but war may not immediately reignite. The ceasefire window still exists, "fighting while talking" may become the norm, the risk of large-scale military escalation looms, and the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved – all four scenarios are possible. Iran has shown strategic resilience, while the Trump administration is caught in a double bind of battlefield difficulties and domestic pressure. The midterm elections may become the invisible endpoint of this game. The "hallmark event" of AI panic: Altman's house was almost bombed. OpenAI CEO Altman posted that his San Francisco residence was attacked by a man throwing incendiary devices at 3:45 AM. Altman stated that he was woken up in the middle of the night and was "furious," before falling into deep reflection. He admitted that he had underestimated the power of narrative and acknowledged that people's fears and anxieties about AI were valid, but "we are witnessing the biggest transformation in society in many years, perhaps in all history." From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, Anthropic has stolen all the limelight from OpenAI. Anthropic is completely stealing the spotlight from OpenAI, specifically in terms of revenue surpassing OpenAI with an annualized income exceeding $30 billion; capital favor, with its private valuation surpassing OpenAI and its secondary market being snapped up, while old shares of OpenAI are unsellable; and B2B dominance, with its market share in enterprise markets like code generation far exceeding that of its rival. "Crude oil trading giant" Vitol heavily impacted by the Iran conflict, Chinese celebrity derivatives trader suffers massive losses. Vitol Group's Chinese trader, Yaoyao Liu, lost hundreds of millions of dollars due to misjudged oil derivative bets early in the Iran conflict. He bet on diesel rising relative to jet fuel and Dubai crude falling relative to Brent. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused jet fuel to surge over 70%, severely impacting his positions. Liu graduated from Cambridge, worked at Goldman Sachs, and generated $2 billion in trading profits in 2022. His team was considered Vitol's "internal hedge fund." #### **Research Highlights** Is US inflation pressure just beginning? The "oil price shock" is only the immediate concern, China's PPI has already turned positive. Two forces are simultaneously transmitting to US inflation: first, the secondary effects of the "oil price shock" have not yet been fully digested; second, the systematic rebound of industrial prices in China. Historical data shows that China's imported price pressure has a significant leading effect on US CPI. Shenwan Securities believes that if spot crude oil prices remain above $110 per barrel through May, China's PPI year-on-year may further surge to around 2.0% in April and May. The Gold Bull Market of the 1970s: How it Started and How it Ended. Guotai Haitong stated that historical comparisons offer the following experiences: First, in an era of stagflation, gold was the best investment choice. During 1970-1974 and 1977-1980, gold achieved annualized returns of 32.5% and 45.2% respectively, significantly outperforming other assets. Second, the core determinant of gold prices is not inflation itself, but the relative speed between inflation expectations and nominal interest rates, i.e., real interest rates. Going forward, whether the Middle East conflict will cause the market's anchor for long-term inflation expectations to loosen is an important factor influencing gold's trend. Third, central bank gold sales, technical overbought conditions, or deleveraging might temporarily affect market sentiment, but what truly determines gold's long-term trend is a significant reversal of the core macroeconomic driving factors. Fourth, when speculative capital pours in, be wary of significant short-term fluctuations in gold and avoid blindly increasing positions at highs. While the market focuses on US-Iran negotiations, a battle for oil is underway, "the oil deficit in the coming weeks will be huge". While futures markets are still betting on a ceasefire, spot crude oil has already spiraled out of control. The North Sea market had 40 buy orders for only 4 sell orders, with prompt Brent briefly touching a historical peak of $144, a premium of over $30 to futures. Asian refineries are "grabbing oil regardless of price," and Macquarie warns that if the conflict continues until June, oil prices could break $200. JPMorgan Chase details Middle East oil and gas losses: This is the complete list. JPMorgan Chase has quantified the losses from the Gulf energy conflict for the first time: over 60 infrastructure sites were attacked by drones and missiles, forcing approximately 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline. About 900,000 barrels per day of this capacity can be restored within weeks, while 800,000 barrels will take about a month to restore; the remaining 700,000 barrels of capacity restoration may take several years. Top large models "capabilities have drastically changed", computing power demand "systematically exceeds supply", MS: "Market optimism may not be enough". Morgan Stanley believes that the current market's optimism about this AI revolution may still severely underestimate its true explosive power and depth. Top large models are undergoing "non-linear capability leaps," with global token usage surging by 250% in three months; the growth rate of computing power demand is three times the growth rate of Nvidia's supply, and the supply-demand gap will widen in the long term. In terms of energy, US data centers will face a 55 GW power deficit between 2025 and 2028. Four consolidation directions during the war interlude: AI hardware, resources, cyclical price increases, and dividends. CITIC Securities believes that the actual traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable influencing the market. After the tail risk of the war subsides, short covering is driving a general rebound in A-shares, but economic and liquidity uncertainties are still accumulating. The market will shift from "pricing expectations" to "pricing reality." After the rebound, funds are expected to consolidate and focus on four main themes that are still trending: AI hardware, resources, cyclical price increases, and dividends, with opportunities hidden in domestic AI hardware and cyclical price increases. #### **Domestic Macro** China's March CPI year-on-year growth moderately fell to 1%, PPI year-on-year rose 0.5%, the first increase after 41 consecutive months of decline. China's March CPI fell by 0.7% month-on-month, mainly due to seasonal declines in food and service prices. Food prices turned from a 1.9% increase in the previous month to a 2.7% decrease, affecting the month-on-month CPI by about 0.48 percentage points. PPI rose by 1.0% month-on-month, marking the sixth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reaching the largest increase in 48 months. Affected by the significant increase in international crude oil prices and other factors, domestic petroleum-related industry prices rose rapidly, with prices in the oil and gas extraction industry increasing by 15.8% month-on-month. CSRC releases opinions on GEM reform, adding a fourth listing standard. Key measures include: adding a fourth listing standard to support innovative enterprises without profits; piloting the information submission of prospective listed companies by local governments; optimizing refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, and equity incentive systems; introducing market-making and other trading mechanisms, and deepening investment-side reforms. At the same time, it emphasizes strict admission standards and severe crackdowns on financial fraud to promote coordinated development of investment and financing. #### **Overseas Macro** US March CPI year-on-year increase of 3.3% lower than expected, month-on-month increase of 0.9% the largest in nearly four years, gasoline hit the largest increase since 1967. US CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022. The year-on-year increase reached 3.3%, the highest level in 2024. The increase in gasoline prices hit a record high since 1967. Although core CPI month-on-month at 0.2% was slightly lower than expected, the secondary transmission effects of the energy shock are expected to appear in April. The data has extremely narrowed the Fed's policy space, bringing back discussions of interest rate hikes, and market expectations for rate cuts within the year have been significantly pressured. - Nick Timiraos: March core CPI slightly below expectations, but energy shock is still ahead. Nick Timiraos stated that the month-on-month increase in US core CPI in March was 0.196%, slightly below expectations, but a single month's data is not enough to change the overall judgment. The Federal Reserve hopes to see energy prices fall and build more confidence in the end of tariff transmission effects. It is worth noting that more energy-related impacts (such as airfare and transportation prices) may still be ahead. US April Michigan Consumer Confidence hits historic low, short-term inflation expectations soar. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April was 47.6, compared to an expected 51.5 and a previous reading of 53.3. The preliminary 1-year inflation expectation was 4.8%, compared to an expected 4.2% and a previous reading of 3.8%. The 5-year inflation expectation was 3.4%, compared to an expected 3.4% and a previous reading of 3.2%. US court re-examines Trump tariffs, 10% global tariff rate faces legality test. According to reports, the US Court of International Trade is conducting judicial review on Trump's imposition of a 10% import tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The judge sharply questioned: the trade deficit is not the same concept as the statutory "balance of payments deficit," and this provision originated from the gold standard era. After the US dollar's decoupling from gold, its applicability has ceased to exist. AI cybersecurity risks raise alarms, White House urges Wall Street to urgently test Anthropic model, Hassett calls for urgency. It is reported that Bessen and Powell convened meetings with executives from several major banks to discuss the cybersecurity threats posed by Anthropic's model, Mythos. JPMorgan Chase was named and asked to participate in internal testing of the model, and Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley will also conduct tests. White House economic advisor Hassett stated that there is "absolutely a sense of urgency" within the government regarding the model. Under the dual pressure of growth and oil prices, foreign capital outflows from India's stock market hit a record high. In just three months this year, foreign investors have withdrawn $18.84 billion from India's stock market, exceeding the historical record outflow of $18.79 billion for the full year 2025. The US-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, coupled with the depreciation of the rupee, weak corporate earnings, and high valuations, the attractiveness of the Indian market has continued to decline. The global capital is accelerating its rotation towards AI-related economies, further exacerbating capital outflows. Fleeing Middle East conflict, Gulf tycoons and capital flock to the Swiss town of Zug. With the escalation of the Middle East conflict, a large number of wealthy individuals, family offices, and businesses based in Dubai are starting to turn their attention to Zug, Switzerland. This small canton, with a population of only 135,000, is known for its concentration of commodity trading and cryptocurrency businesses. Currently, inquiries and relocation demands are surging. However, with scarce housing and high residency thresholds, some overflow demand is flowing to alternative regions like Lugano. #### **Overseas Companies** "Big Short" bets against, Trump personally "endorses" Palantir. Trump posted, "Plantir has proven to have excellent combat capabilities and equipment." "Big Short" Burry immediately posted a blog article after Trump's post, stating that he would not close his position and would maintain his bearish stance. Palantir and the current administration have formed deep intertwined interests, maintaining close cooperation with multiple US federal agencies, and several former Palantir employees have entered government positions. ## Today's News Preview China's March financial data. The 6th China International Consumer Products Expo opens in Hainan. US March government budget. US March existing home sales. IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks. OPEC releases its monthly oil market report. Goldman Sachs announces earnings. 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