--- title: "The earnings season for U.S. stocks kicks off amid the turmoil of war in the Middle East! The profitability of banks, technology, and consumer sectors is crucial to the fate of the bull market" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282467981.md" description: "Under the impact of the Middle East conflict, the earnings season for the U.S. stock market is about to begin, with the market focusing on the earnings performance of the banking, technology, and consumer sectors. Large banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase will be the first to release their results, and analysts expect the S&P 500's first-quarter earnings to grow by about 14% year-on-year. Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions, the market's optimistic expectations for corporate earnings growth remain strong, and systemic funds are also preparing to become net buyers, which may drive further increases in U.S. stocks" datetime: "2026-04-13T02:26:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282467981.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282467981.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282467981.md) --- # The earnings season for U.S. stocks kicks off amid the turmoil of war in the Middle East! The profitability of banks, technology, and consumer sectors is crucial to the fate of the bull market According to Zhitong Finance APP, global stock market investors will actively seek evidence in the coming week to determine whether the profit expansion engine of American companies—especially the large Wall Street banks with significant weight in the S&P 500, major tech giants closely associated with AI, and retail leaders' "profit super engines"—is still functioning well; and closely monitor whether the new round of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the resulting surge in energy costs pose a significant threat to this optimistic outlook for corporate profit growth. The first quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks will kick off with performance reports from these major commercial banks, such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America, which are systemically important to Wall Street. The strong optimistic expectations for robust quarterly and annual profit growth have continuously supported the bullish outlook for U.S. and global stock markets. Despite the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East over the past month and the market's euphoria over a two-week ceasefire agreement, these expectations remain intact. The core logic of the current U.S. stock market bull trend can be described as a "dual drive of fundamental growth resilience + capital replenishment." On one hand, the earnings season is about to verify whether the corporate profit engine is still running at high speed. Wall Street analysts generally expect that S&P 500 first-quarter earnings are projected to grow by about 14% year-on-year, likely achieving double-digit growth for six consecutive quarters, and the full-year earnings growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward from about 15% in late February to over 19%, with the U.S. tech sector expected to contribute more than 40% of the earnings growth. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs' trading department model shows that after a massive sell-off of about $48 billion in S&P 500 futures by CTAs over the past month, systematic funds are preparing to become net buyers; even if the market remains flat, potential buying in the coming week could reach about $45 billion, representing record-level short-term capital inflows. This means that the next phase of the U.S. stock market's upward movement does not entirely rely on the "ceasefire benefits" itself, but rather on whether earnings reports can prove that the war has not eroded profits, and whether systematic funds will further mechanize and amplify the rebound. If the performance and guidance of large Wall Street banks, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, ASML, TSMC, and PepsiCo continue to show that corporate profits, consumer activity, and loan activities have not significantly deteriorated, then the market will view the Middle East conflict more as external noise rather than a fundamental turning point that undermines the bull market's foundation. Conversely, if listed companies, especially tech companies, begin to lower future guidance, and large commercial banks disclose a slowdown in consumer spending and weakened loan demand, or if U.S. companies clearly feel the impact of rising oil prices eroding profit margins, then the current rebound supported by "profit optimism + fast money CTA-led capital replenishment" will quickly lose its grip—this is a typical risk asset bull market framework of "first looking at profits and then at liquidity amplification." Recent improvements in the market environment, a decline in volatility, the S&P 500 breaking above the 50-day moving average, and the VIX falling to around 20 are creating conditions for CTAs, volatility-target funds, and some independent investors to re-enter the market; however, the fragility of this rise is also very clear—it heavily relies on continued declines in volatility, oil prices not surging again, and corporate management maintaining an optimistic tone. In other words, whether the U.S. stock market can sustain its rebound in the coming weeks largely depends on two questions: whether profit expectations can continue to maintain an upward trend, and whether systematic buying can achieve "technical repair." Upgraded to "Trend Upward." ## Latest US-Iran Negotiations Fail, Can Profit Engines Support the Main Theme of the US Stock Bull Market? The latest round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has broken down, and oil prices remain significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. Multiple clear signs indicate that global inflation is heating up, and expectations of "stagflation" are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The "Higher-for-Longer" narrative is putting significant pressure on the recent stock and bond markets, which had become increasingly clear and fervent due to the prospects of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, facing a major test. "The market remains resilient, and the trajectory of the US stock bull market continues positively mainly because earnings expectations in the US stock market are still being revised upward. So far, the war factors have not had any negative impact on the fundamentals," said Nick Giorgi, Chief Equity Strategist at Alpine Macro. "If you really start to see some negative chain reactions in the fundamentals, then all bets will be off." Last week, strong optimism surrounding the easing of geopolitical tensions supported the stock market, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. This short-lived agreement was reached after US President Donald Trump threatened to significantly escalate the war. However, after the weekend's failure to reach a peace agreement and the temporary end of negotiations, investors are undoubtedly most concerned about whether the prolonged high costs of traditional energy sources near historical peaks will exacerbate already high price pressures, thereby completely shattering expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. ![1776042156(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260413/1776042160209728.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The above chart shows the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 index. As of last Friday's close, the S&P 500 index had nearly recovered all losses since the US and Israel began military strikes against Iran in late February, during which the benchmark index had declined by less than 1%. However, the geopolitical war in the Middle East remains at the forefront of market attention, and it is expected that by this Friday's close of the US stock market, investors will remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East situation. The economic observation window provided by the earnings reports of major Wall Street commercial banks, whether US consumer and loan activities are weakening, whether the AI revenue prospects and AI computing power demand of US tech giants will jointly present explosive growth, whether the rising oil prices will further permeate corporate costs and US inflation, and the impact of subsequent data such as PPI on market expectations will be the core focus of attention during this earnings season. Some cautious investors are worried that if the ceasefire agreement is shattered and the Middle East war continues, along with rising energy costs, the earnings guidance and outlook of those high market-cap companies during the US earnings season may become the first crack to break the current optimistic bull market narrative. It is expected that by this Friday, about 10% of the component companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index will announce their first-quarter results, with an extremely busy earnings release schedule in the following weeks. In addition to major Wall Street banks, important earnings reports this week will also come from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and PepsiCo According to Wall Street analyst estimates compiled by LSEG IBES as of last Friday, the overall earnings of S&P 500 constituents are expected to grow significantly by about 14% compared to the same period last year. According to Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide, this will mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, the longest stretch since 2011. Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, stated, "As we approach this earnings season, the bar is indeed quite high to some extent." Beneath the surface, there are significant differences in expectations among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500. According to detailed data from LSEG IBES, the heavily weighted technology sector is expected to drive earnings growth of over 40%, while the healthcare sector is expected to see a substantial decline of 10% in earnings. ## How will the impact of the Middle East conflict and the results of the earnings season affect the trajectory of the U.S. stock market bull run? One market focus in the earnings reports will be how large publicly traded U.S. companies view the ripple effects of soaring oil prices; rising oil prices are bound to increase costs for a range of businesses and squeeze consumer spending. Even after a ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices, U.S. crude oil has still risen by about 70% this year. Overall annual performance expectations have become more optimistic. Earnings for S&P 500 constituents in 2026 are expected to grow by over 19%, up from the 15% expected in late February. Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, stated, "What you will see is whether these future earnings expectations can hold up or will be revised down. Therefore, the earnings guidance from U.S. companies has become extremely important." ![1776042179(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260413/1776042181562883.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Investors generally believe that the earnings reports from large Wall Street commercial banks will provide a key window into the health of the economy, and prior to the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, there were already some concerns about a slowdown in the labor market. Goldman Sachs will report earnings on Monday, while the largest commercial bank in the U.S., JPMorgan Chase, will release its earnings on Tuesday, with Wells Fargo and Citigroup also reporting on the same day. Other banks will release their earnings later next week. Melson noted that these large commercial banks' latest comments on consumer spending behavior and the impact of oil prices on consumer budgets will be crucial. He stated, "The consumption patterns they observe will be a key basis for the market to judge how substantial the risks of economic slowdown are from a consumer perspective." Giorgi mentioned that in a more turbulent geopolitical context, he would focus on comments regarding lending activity. "If banks indicate that companies are ignoring geopolitical issues or that geopolitics has no significant impact, yet they still need to invest and are still lending, that would be a very positive signal." In addition to next week's earnings reports, investors will also pay attention to a report on U.S. producer prices, which is an important inflation indicator. Schutte stated that the impact of oil prices typically takes time to gradually permeate the economy, so if the war continues, the macroeconomic risks it brings will be greater. Schutte said, "The longer this situation lasts... the greater its potential impact on U.S. inflation." From a macroeconomic and market strategy perspective, the next phase of the U.S. stock market's upward movement does not entirely rely on the "U.S.-Iran ceasefire benefits" itself, but rather on whether the earnings reports can prove that the war has not eroded profits, and whether systemic funds will further mechanize and amplify the rebound. Whether the U.S. stock market can maintain an upward trend under the main theme of a bull market in the coming weeks largely depends on two questions: whether earnings expectations can continue to stand firm on a positive upward revision trend, and whether systemic buying can upgrade "technical repair" to "trend upward." ### Related Stocks - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [GS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-A.US.md) - [GS-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-C.US.md) - [GS-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [JPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [FNCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNCL.US.md) - [VFH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md) - [XLF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md) - [IAI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Goldman Sachs reveals impact of Iran conflict in its latest earnings report. 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