--- title: "Trump To End 2-Week Iran Ceasefire? Crypto Prediction Market Has This To Say" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282490245.md" description: "Despite the collapse of peace talks, cryptocurrency markets suggest a low probability of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire ending soon. Polymarket assigns a 42% chance of the ceasefire ending by April 21, with a 30% chance it could end by April 18. Over $2 million has been wagered on this outcome. President Trump has threatened to block Iranian ship traffic, while negotiations faltered due to disagreements over nuclear weapons. Iranian officials accuse the U.S. of changing demands." datetime: "2026-04-13T04:12:24.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282490245.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282490245.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282490245.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Trump To End 2-Week Iran Ceasefire? Crypto Prediction Market Has This To Say Despite peace talks falling apart this weekend, cryptocurrency punters don't see high chances of the two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire ending just yet. ## **Will The Ceasefire Extend?** **Polygon** (CRYPTO: POL)-based **Polymarket** assigned a 42% possibility that the temporary ceasefire would end on April 21, exactly 14 days after President **Donald Trump** announced it. The odds have increased by six percentage points over the week. The likelihood of the ceasefire ending by April 18, before the full two-week duration, was estimated at 30%. More than $2 million has been wagered on the outcome, and the market will resolve to “Yes” if Trump, the federal government, or the U.S. military officially announces that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Notably, the odds of the military operation in Iran concluding by the end of this month dropped to 24%, down from 12% the previous day. ## A Fragile Ceasefire? These developments come after Trump vowed to block ship traffic tied to Iran in and out of the Strait of Hormuz after the Islamabad peace talks over the weekend without an agreement. He added that the Navy has been directed to intercept ships in international waters that have paid what he called an illegal toll to Iran. Earlier, Vice President **JD Vance**, who led the high-level peace talks from the U.S. side, said negotiations broke down over Iran’s unwillingness to commit to abandoning nuclear weapons development. On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister **Abbas Araghchi** accused Washington of shifting demands at the last minute, adding, “Goodwill begets goodwill. Enmity begets enmity.” *Photo: Joshua Sukoff/Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [MARA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MARA.US.md) - [HUT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HUT.US.md) - [BITI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITI.US.md) - [CORZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CORZ.US.md) - [BTCS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCS.US.md) - [BTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTC.US.md) - [HIVE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HIVE.US.md) - [RIOT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RIOT.US.md) - [ARKB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARKB.US.md) - [FBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBTC.US.md) - [FETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FETH.US.md) - [BITO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITO.US.md) - [BITU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITU.US.md) - [ETHT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHT.US.md) - [MRAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRAL.US.md) - [STCE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/STCE.US.md) - [IBIT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBIT.US.md) - [QETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QETH.US.md) - [BLKC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BLKC.US.md) - [ETHW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHW.US.md) - [EZET.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EZET.US.md) - [BTCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCO.US.md) - [ETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETH.US.md) - [CETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CETH.US.md) - [LMBO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LMBO.US.md) - [IBLC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBLC.US.md) - [GSOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GSOL.US.md) - [BKCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BKCH.US.md) - [COIG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COIG.US.md) - [CONL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CONL.US.md) - [WGMI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WGMI.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [BTCS Imperium DeFi AUM rises to about $36 million from $8 million at end of Q2](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298918736.md) - [U.S. RESEARCH ROUNDUP- ACV Auctions, Crown Castle, Lennox International](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298902179.md) - [Bybit Launches Bybit Odds, Giving Traders a Simpler Way to Trade Crypto Price Views](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299117558.md) - [Osmosis Took 74 Days To Discover A 40-BTC Nomic Exploit That Left Its Bitcoin-Backed Asset 36% Unbacked](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298903281.md) - [Hong Kong-based crypto exchange CoinEx to cease operations amid prolonged market downturn](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299010660.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**