--- title: "A Look At BHP Group’s Valuation As Copper Focus And Silver Streaming Deal Reshape Its Earnings Mix" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282576669.md" description: "BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has completed a long-term silver streaming deal related to its Antamina mine, prompting a reassessment of its focus on copper and other commodities. The company's share price has seen a 30-day return of 9.14% and a year-to-date return of 18.77%. Analysts suggest BHP may be undervalued at A$54.35, with a fair value estimate of A$55.50. However, a different analysis indicates a lower future cash flow value of A$36.86. Investors are encouraged to explore additional investment opportunities while considering the risks involved." datetime: "2026-04-13T17:40:49.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282576669.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282576669.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282576669.md) --- # A Look At BHP Group’s Valuation As Copper Focus And Silver Streaming Deal Reshape Its Earnings Mix BHP Group (ASX:BHP) is back in focus after completing a long term silver streaming deal linked to its Antamina mine interest, just as markets reassess its increasing tilt toward copper and other future facing commodities. See our latest analysis for BHP Group. The recent silver streaming announcement lands at a time when BHP’s 30 day share price return of 9.14% and year to date share price return of 18.77% sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 55.66%. This suggests momentum has been building as investors weigh higher copper exposure against a broader pullback in commodities. If you are tracking how copper exposure is reshaping the resources space, it may be worth widening your watchlist to include 8 top copper producer stocks With A$54.35 on the screen, a value score of 2, a small 0.24% annual revenue growth rate and 5.02% annual net income growth, the question is simple: is BHP undervalued today or already priced for future growth? ## Most Popular Narrative: 2.1% Undervalued According to Bailey's widely followed narrative, BHP's fair value of A$55.50 sits slightly above the last close at A$54.35, with that small gap resting on a very specific view of future copper and potash earnings. > _Through BHP Ventures, the company has acquired "call options" on revolutionary technologies. Investments in companies like Jetti Resources (catalytic leaching to recover copper from waste rock) and Boston Metal (molten oxide electrolysis for steel) could fundamentally lower the cost curve. If these technologies scale, BHP could unlock vast reserves of previously "uneconomic" low-grade ore without the massive CAPEX of building new mines._ _Read the complete narrative._ Curious what kind of copper volumes, potash output and margin profile sit behind that small valuation gap? The narrative leans on multi decade asset lives, future facing commodity demand and a profitability curve that looks very different to BHP's recent earnings mix. **Result: Fair Value of A$55.50 (UNDERVALUED)** Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on iron ore cash flows holding up and Jansen staying on track, with Chinese steel demand or further potash cost blowouts both capable of changing the story. Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative. ## Another View: Cash Flows Paint a Different Picture While Bailey’s narrative points to a small 2.1% gap between price and fair value at A$55.50, the SWS DCF model is far less optimistic. It indicates a future cash flow value of A$36.86 for BHP compared with A$54.35 today. That kind of spread raises a simple question: which story does your portfolio have more room for if it is wrong? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out BHP Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 9 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. ## Next Steps Seen enough to sense both optimism and caution in the story so far? Act while the details are fresh and test the numbers yourself with 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign. ## Looking for more investment ideas? If BHP is only one piece of your portfolio puzzle, now is the moment to widen the lens and line up your next potential opportunities. - Spot fresh value by scanning 9 high quality undervalued stocks that pair quality fundamentals with prices that do not fully reflect their current metrics. - Lock in potential income streams by reviewing 6 dividend fortresses that prioritise yield and consistency. - Dial down overall portfolio risk by focusing on 9 resilient stocks with low risk scores, which are designed to hold up better when conditions get tougher. _This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._ ### Related Stocks - [BHP.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHP.AU.md) - [BHPLF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHPLF.US.md) - [BHP.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHP.UK.md) - [BHP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHP.US.md) - [PICK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PICK.US.md) - [DBB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBB.US.md) - [XME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XME.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [See How Century Aluminum Ranks Among Analysts' Top Metals Picks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287250614.md) - [Primoris Wealth Advisors LLC Makes New Investment in BHP Group Limited Sponsored ADR $BHP](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285198594.md) - [Maka Kids is redefining kids’ screen time with a streaming app optimized for well-being, not engagement](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287235126.md) - [Canada to Raise Revenue Levy on Online Streamers to Support Local Programming](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287270779.md) - [Electra Battery Materials publishes MD&A for year ended Dec. 31, 2025](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287268205.md)