The US housing market faces dual pressures on the eve of its traditional peak season: existing home sales continue to contract, while the scale of housing shortages far exceeds prior estimates. Although policy measures are being frequently introduced, persistently high mortgage rates are suppressing any signs of recovery.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Monday that existing home sales fell 3.6% year-over-year in March to 3.98 million units, the lowest level since June of last year, below the median forecast from Bloomberg economists.
At the same time, the latest report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers raised the estimate for the national shortage of single-family homes to at least 10 million units, exceeding previous estimates by both government and private institutions.
Impacted by the war with Iran, mortgage rates have surged significantly, further exacerbating the affordability crisis in the housing market. The current rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stands at 6.37%, more than double the level seen five years ago.
Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist, stated in a declaration: &#34;Continuing increases in mortgage rates have prompted us to lower our forecast for existing home sales this year.&#34; NAR subsequently slashed its growth forecast for existing home sales in 2026 from a previous 14% to just 4%.
<h2>Sales Decline Across the Board; Northeast Hits Record Low</h2>
According to NAR data, contract volume for existing homes fell across all regions of the country in March. Existing home sales in the Northeast dropped to a historical low dating back to when records began in 1999, while transaction volumes in the Midwest remained flat at their lowest level since 2011. The share of first-time buyers held steady at approximately one-third.
The median price of existing home sales rose 1.4% year-over-year in March to $408,800, reflecting continued mismatches in supply and demand. Regarding inventory, the number of existing homes listed for sale ticked up slightly to a four-month high, but remains severely low in a historical context.
Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul noted, &#34;Rising existing home inventory, worsening consumer expectations regarding purchasing conditions, continuously climbing mortgage rates from early March to early April, coupled with an oversupply of new housing, mean that persistent weakness in demand relative to inventory will put pressure on home prices over the next year.&#34;
<h2>White House Report: Shortage of at Least 10 Million Units, Far Exceeding Prior Estimates</h2>
In its &#34;President's Economic Report,&#34; the White House Council of Economic Advisers stated, &#34;If residential construction and the stock of single-family homes had not declined sharply after 2008 but had instead followed historical trends, there would be at least 10 million additional single-family homes today.&#34;
This figure is significantly higher than previous estimates from official and private institutions. In November 2024, Freddie Mac assessed the US housing shortage at 3.7 million units; in June 2021, the NAR estimated a gap of 5.5 million units based on trends over the past two decades compared to construction speeds between 1968 and 2000.
The timing of the report release carries political implications. Last month, the Senate passed a comprehensive bill aimed at reducing housing costs by a vote of 89 to 10, but the bill's fate in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Some legislators hope to include controversial provisions requiring investors to sell &#34;build-to-rent&#34; properties they hold within seven years.
<h2>Multi-Pronged Policy Efforts Constrained by High Interest Rates</h2>
In March, Trump signed two executive orders. One aims to ease access to mortgage credit, directing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to adjust relevant rules to enable smaller banks to &#34;offer more affordable loans.&#34; The other seeks to streamline environmental approval processes to accelerate the implementation of development and infrastructure projects.
Prior to this, the Trump administration proposed establishing 50-year mortgages and allowing borrowers to withdraw penalty-free from their 401(k) retirement accounts for down payments on homes, but these proposals were stalled due to opposition from Congress, the financial industry, and even Trump himself.
The White House also directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to jointly purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds in an effort to lower interest rates. This move briefly drove rates down slightly, but they subsequently rebounded due to the impact of the war with Iran.
According to Freddie Mac data, the current rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.37%, more than double the level seen five years ago.

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Existing home sales in the US fell 3.6% year-over-year in March to 3.98 million units, the lowest level since June of last year and below market expectations. The White House Council of Economic Advisers stated that the US is short at least 10 million single-family homes, higher than previous estimates. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have pushed up interest rates, with mortgage rates currently at 6.37%, more than double the levels seen five years ago, making housing market recovery difficult

- The U.S. housing market faces significant challenges with existing home sales declining 3.6% in March to the lowest level since June 2022, amid a shortage of over 10 million single-family homes.  
- The Federal Reserve's actions to lower mortgage rates haven't effectively alleviated the pressure, as rates for 30-year fixed loans now exceed 6.37%, more than double the level from five years ago.  
- Additionally, the Northeast achieved record low home sales, indicating a broader trend of reduced transactions across the country.

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US Existing Home Sales Fall to Nine-Month Low; White House Says Single-Family Housing Shortage at Least 10 Million Units