--- title: "The U.S. military's \"blockade order\" takes effect, inflation's sticky resonance, is gold facing a configuration opportunity?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282612914.md" description: "Recently, due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, the gold market has gradually stabilized after experiencing significant volatility, with spot gold hitting 4,800 points. The U.S. military has implemented a blockade on Iranian ports, and Trump has stated that he will eliminate Iranian vessels near the blockade area. High oil prices are driving U.S. inflation, enhancing the allocation value of gold as an inflation hedge asset. Investors can pay attention to gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs to seize long-term opportunities" datetime: "2026-04-14T01:43:14.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282612914.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282612914.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282612914.md) --- # The U.S. military's "blockade order" takes effect, inflation's sticky resonance, is gold facing a configuration opportunity? Recently, due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, the gold market has gradually stabilized after experiencing short-term volatility. On April 14, spot gold surged towards the 4800-point mark. The fluctuating U.S.-Iran situation, threats of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and the largest month-on-month increase in U.S. CPI in nearly four years—under these multiple variables, the pricing logic of gold is shifting from a singular expectation of interest rate cuts to a more complex pattern of geopolitical hedging and stagflation trading. Attention may be paid to gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) to seize long-term opportunities in gold. **Fluctuating Middle East Situation: From Short-term Hedging to Mid-term Inflation Drivers** On April 13 local time, Trump stated that the "right person" from Iran called the U.S. side saying they "hope to reach an agreement," while Iran accused the U.S. of "constantly changing its position," leading to the failure of the Islamabad talks. However, reports indicate that U.S.-Iran contacts are still ongoing, with the next round of "direct negotiations" possibly taking place on the 16th in Islamabad. Meanwhile, starting at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on the 13th, the U.S. military implemented a blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. President Trump stated that Iranian vessels near the blockade zone would be "immediately destroyed." The Iranian Ministry of Defense responded that any military intervention attempts in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman would fail. The fluctuating U.S.-Iran situation marks the evolution of geopolitical risks from one-time shocks to persistent disturbances, with rising oil price expectations reshaping the gold pricing framework. Data Source: China Merchants Securities **Oil Prices Transmitting Inflation, Strengthening Stagflation Narrative.** China Merchants Securities reviews history and points out that when energy prices experience a substantial upward shift, gold's anti-inflation properties will regain dominance. During the second oil crisis in 1978, the average price of crude oil rose from $13.2 per barrel to $40.75 per barrel, with gold prices increasing by 168% during the second round of oil price hikes. Currently, rising oil prices have significantly boosted U.S. inflation—March CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since June 2022, with gasoline price increases marking the highest record since 1967. Huayuan Securities notes that if high oil prices persist and transmit to core inflation, the U.S. economy faces the risk of "sticky high inflation" and "downward pressure on growth," continuously reinforcing gold's value as a stagflation hedge asset. Data Source: China Merchants Securities **The Game of "Inflation" and "Stagnation": The Shift in Gold Pricing Logic** The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting from "when to cut interest rates" to "holding steady and responding in both directions," with interest rate cut expectations at a freezing point. However, the stagflation scenario is providing bullish support for gold, replacing the narrative of interest rate cuts. **Interest rate cut expectations are fully priced in, limiting further downside.** According to CME FedWatch data, market expectations for interest rate cuts within 2026 have dropped to a freezing point. The minutes from the April 9 FOMC meeting show that the vast majority of participants believe the process of bringing inflation back to 2% may be slower than expected. However, if conflicts dampen consumption, depress employment, and tighten financial conditions, interest rate cuts may still be needed. Currently, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is higher than the federal funds rate, which is partially interpreted as a signal for rate hikes. Expectations for rate hikes have slightly contracted over the week, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode. **Weakening U.S. dollar credit provides long-term support.** China Merchants Securities' research report emphasizes that constraints on the U.S. fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and great power competition are weakening the stability of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor. In the first two months before the 2026 fiscal year, the U.S. Treasury's cumulative interest expenditure reached $425 billion, with an average interest rate of 3.32%. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates to curb inflation, the pressure from the fiscal deficit will further increase. The global trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating—according to data from the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive quarters, with the Asian market recording a net inflow of $14 billion in the first quarter, setting a historical record. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months, reaching 74.38 million ounces by the end of March, providing solid bottom support for gold prices. Data Source: Guosen Securities **Gold ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) Capture Long-term Opportunities in Gold** The core logic of the gold market has shifted from a single "interest rate cut trade" to a multi-line resonance pattern of "geopolitical risk + stagflation pricing + de-dollarization." In the short term, gold prices may still be influenced by liquidity disturbances and policy expectation fluctuations, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the continuity of the Middle East situation, the upward shift in energy price centers, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system have not fundamentally reversed. Historically, deep corrections during gold bull markets often serve as windows for medium to long-term allocations. For gold investment, the Gold ETF (518800) has underlying assets corresponding to physical gold, with gold reserves stored in the Shanghai Gold Exchange vault, and its net value trend directly corresponds to gold prices. Investors can participate in gold investment in various ways, including physical gold, jewelry gold bars, gold futures, and gold ETFs. Currently, the Gold ETF (518800) has significant investment advantages. This is due to the new gold tax policy introduced by the state last November, which stipulates that extracting physical gold through exchanges requires paying value-added tax; however, investing through the Gold ETF (518800) for non-physical investment means the corresponding gold assets are also stored in the exchange vault, and there is no need for actual extraction, thus exempting it from value-added tax Gold stock ETF (517400) serves as a tool product for laying out the gold industry chain, combining the elasticity of gold prices with the liquidity advantages of the stock market, making it suitable for investors looking to participate in the gold market through equity markets for phased allocation or medium to long-term layout. For investors, the allocation window for the gold sector is opening between short-term volatility and long-term certainty. By using gold ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400) for layout, investors can capture trading opportunities catalyzed by short-term geopolitical conflicts, while also serving as a core variety for long-term allocation in the gold industry chain. 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