--- title: "Most Popular Assets, Slowest to Recover" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282661495.md" description: "The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has entered its 7th week, and the market is gradually desensitized to related news. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index stabilized first during the conflict, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, especially with continued inflows after the ceasefire. Although gold is a popular asset, its recovery during the rebound has been slow, with major global assets having restored their declines, while gold has only recovered by half. Concerns about supply chain disruptions and re-inflation have affected gold pricing, leading to a 16% drop during the conflict" datetime: "2026-04-14T09:07:11.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282661495.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282661495.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282661495.md) --- # Most Popular Assets, Slowest to Recover The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has entered its seventh week, and the market has begun to desensitize to "headline news," with some assets showing signs of a bottom even before the ceasefire agreement was announced on April 7. On March 23, the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and gold all hit their respective phase lows since the conflict began—two full weeks before the ceasefire agreement. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oo6GCRJAbINuUAnryyXNA2a7XxgMVy9wXs6bPjq3BDnV8AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) (This article contains objective data information and does not constitute any investment advice.) Compared to other stock indices, the Shanghai and Hang Seng indices stabilized first, backed by China's energy security and the integrity of its industrial chain. The stabilization of gold relies on the ultimate belief in "gold in chaotic times." However, what is truly intriguing is the choice of funds. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the flow of ETF funds has been unambiguous. As of April 13, SGE Gold 9999 saw a total net inflow of 12.8 billion yuan. Notably, after the ceasefire on April 7, an additional 1.6 billion yuan continued to flow in. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OzEjvzU-ECk4W23kRNHx7sSHLCTS1kGdMM1j1SoUKlTAsAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Taking the gold ETF EFUND (159934) as an example, it has seen five consecutive days of fund subscriptions, with a net inflow of over 2.2 billion yuan during the conflict, bringing its latest scale to 43.016 billion yuan. The underlying asset is a physical gold holding certificate from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, eliminating concerns about storage, allowing for flexible trading, and supporting T+0. Its off-exchange linked funds (A/C: 000307/002963). ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OA1f1KVciX4NUMZ0RHvMdRBWLgIs30kYPT-lpNNpyS_UQAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Under the reconstruction of the global order, the logic of asset pricing has shifted from efficiency-first to safety-first, and the long-term allocation value of gold has become deeply ingrained. Strangely, although gold was previously the most popular asset, it has been the slowest to recover in this round of rebound. Looking at mainstream global assets, a peculiar phenomenon presents itself: The ChiNext Index, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and Korea Composite Index—all have erased their declines during the conflict, while gold has only reclaimed more than half of its lost ground. The London gold spot, which fell over 16% during the conflict, has risen 8% since hitting bottom on March 23. Is gold losing its appeal? Perhaps, funds still have short-term concerns. What are these concerns? Supply chain disruptions leading to re-inflation shocks have dispelled expectations for interest rate cuts. This is because gold's pricing mechanism is influenced by multiple factors, including risk aversion, real interest rates, the strength of the dollar, and inflation expectations In the early stages of this conflict, the market quickly interpreted the risks as: "Oil prices surge → Inflation expectations rise → The Federal Reserve has to be more hawkish → The dollar strengthens, real interest rates rise," leading to a cumulative decline of 16% in London gold during the conflict. Why does the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates have such a significant impact on gold prices? Gold is a non-yielding asset. On August 22 last year, Jerome Powell first clearly signaled a dovish stance, directly triggering the current major upward trend in gold prices, which soared from the level of $3,340 to as high as $5,600. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz directly reduced the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates from two times at the beginning of the year to zero. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields prompted speculators in gold to withdraw quickly, compounded by the urgent need of some energy-exporting countries to sell gold reserves to stabilize foreign exchange, which suppressed gold's safe-haven buying in the short term. This precisely reflects gold's attribute as a "safe-haven asset" in extreme market conditions. Its high liquidity makes it the best "dispatch tool" in extreme crises, but the cost is a slow short-term recovery. Although the market has become numb to news about the U.S.-Iran situation, the real impact of the blockade is still accumulating. The preliminary result of U.S.-Iran negotiations is "block your blockade"—compared to the sporadic navigation before negotiations, the situation in the Middle East is hard to say has improved. The concept of gold in chaotic times remains deeply ingrained. Song Xuetao, a macro analyst at China International Capital Corporation, put it very plainly: > "When the market begins to price in 'losing the Middle East war is a sign of the decline of U.S. comprehensive national power,' gold will rise to the next peak." However, before the market prices U.S. national power, the current reality is the negative impacts of the Strait blockade and supply chain disruptions are still accumulating. The CITIC Securities team believes that the key variable affecting market funding trends in the future is the observable actual navigation volume, rather than seemingly relevant negotiation news. Huatai Securities believes that the reasons for this round of gold adjustment include previous crowded positions, liquidity shocks, some central banks selling gold, and the diversion of funds from energy commodities; in the short term, the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to gold and risk assets rising together, reflecting that monetary policy factors outweigh safe-haven attributes; in the medium to long term, short-term geopolitical changes have not undermined gold's underlying logic, including the reshaping of geopolitical order, risks of uncontrolled U.S. debt, central bank gold purchases, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the scarcity of safe-haven assets. The pricing framework of real interest rates + central bank gold purchases still has a certain explanatory power; of course, if the Federal Reserve enters an active rate hike cycle, it may also trigger a sharp adjustment in gold. Scroll up and down to view the complete risk warning: The content of this article is a listing of objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice. The above content only reflects the current market situation, which may change in the future and does not represent any investment opinions or suggestions. Past performance of indices does not guarantee future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of fund investment returns or any investment advice. Practitioner number: A20260413000375. The index has a short operating time and cannot reflect all stages of market development. Index funds have tracking errors, and past performance of funds does not guarantee future performance. Please read the legal documents such as the "Fund Contract" and "Prospectus" before purchasing any fund products, and choose products suitable for yourself based on your risk tolerance and investment goals. 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