--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together as the U.S. and Iran plan to continue negotiations to extend the ceasefire agreement; most bank stocks decline after earnings reports are released" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282690152.md" description: "U.S. stock index futures are all up, and market sentiment is optimistic. The U.S. and Iran plan to continue negotiations to extend the ceasefire agreement, despite the last round of talks being unsuccessful. Citigroup has upgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from \"neutral\" to \"overweight,\" expecting the S&P 500 index to reach 7,700 points by the end of the year, implying an upside potential of about 12%" datetime: "2026-04-14T12:23:14.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282690152.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282690152.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282690152.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together as the U.S. and Iran plan to continue negotiations to extend the ceasefire agreement; most bank stocks decline after earnings reports are released ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of April 14 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.04%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.19%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.46%. ![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260414/1776168454755874.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.91%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.04%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.62%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.92%. ![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260414/1776168459958478.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.85%, priced at $97.25 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.39%, priced at $98.97 per barrel. ![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260414/1776168464221998.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **The U.S. and Iran plan to continue negotiations to extend the ceasefire agreement.** According to informed sources, the U.S. and Iran are considering further negotiations to extend the two-week ceasefire agreement, aiming to hold new talks before the ceasefire agreement announced on April 7 expires next week. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump is advancing a naval blockade operation to curb Iran's oil exports, a move aimed at forcing Iran to make concessions in peace negotiations. This latest development indicates that both the U.S. and Iran have not abandoned diplomatic efforts after failing to reach an agreement in the first round of talks over the weekend. According to recent reports, media outlets citing informed sources have reported that U.S. and Iranian delegations will negotiate later this week in Islamabad, Pakistan. **Citigroup calls for "overweight" U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 targeting 7,700 points.** As the U.S. earnings season officially kicks off this week, Citigroup strategists have joined their Wall Street peers in turning bullish on U.S. stocks, shifting their stance from cautious observation to a more constructive bullish outlook. In their global asset allocation strategy, based on a "high quality/defensive bias," they have upgraded the rating of U.S. stocks from "neutral" to "overweight." The strategists stated that given the flow of funds and the overall limited visibility in the market, this upgrade of the U.S. stock rating is a "tactical" adjustment. They expect the S&P 500 index to reach 7,700 points by the end of the year, indicating about a 12% upside from Monday's closing level. However, the strategists also noted that while the positive expectation of a long-term peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran will continuously boost investor bullish sentiment and overall market risk appetite, it may be challenging to return to a macro environment dominated by "Goldilocks" narratives and pro-cyclical market trading dynamics **BlackRock is bullish on U.S. stocks! Easing geopolitical risks and soaring profits are key drivers.** Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its expectations for U.S. stocks. The firm believes that the impact of the Middle East conflict has been effectively controlled, coupled with strong corporate earnings, will create a favorable environment for the U.S. domestic stock market. BlackRock has upgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "neutral" to "overweight." The firm pointed out that the prospect of a lasting ceasefire has led strategists to believe that the impact of this conflict will not be significant. Furthermore, "the threshold for renewed war between the U.S. and Iran is very high," which further limits potential damage. Meanwhile, the outlook for corporate earnings looks very promising. More importantly, profits in the technology sector are expected to increase by 45% this year, yet the actual gains in this sector have been minimal. **IEA sounds the alarm for the oil market: Global oil demand will see its first decline in six years, with a serious disconnect between futures and spot markets.** The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that due to the surge in oil prices triggered by the Middle East war, demand destruction has occurred, leading to a projected decline in global oil demand this year for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In its latest monthly report, the IEA indicated that due to the impact of the Middle East war, global oil demand is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day by 2026, compared to a previous forecast of an increase of 640,000 barrels per day. The report noted that the Middle East war has completely disrupted the global oil consumption outlook. The demand destruction phenomenon in oil consumption initially appeared in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, and as supply shortages persist and prices rise, this trend is expected to further expand. The IEA also pointed out that despite an unprecedented surge in oil futures prices in March, they remain far below record levels and spot prices, and this "disconnect" between the futures and spot markets is becoming "increasingly severe." IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated on Monday that oil futures have yet to reflect the severity of the crisis, but will soon do so. **U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra: The Federal Reserve should remain "cautious" before cutting interest rates.** U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becerra stated that in the context of the Middle East war, the Federal Reserve should take a "wait-and-see" approach before deciding whether to lower interest rates. Becerra pointed out that the U.S. economy performed "very strongly" in January and February, and the Fed's approach of "watching the evolution of the conflict" is correct. Becerra also emphasized that recent price increases "will not become entrenched in inflation expectations." Looking ahead, the Fed's policy outlook will be highly dependent on oil price trends and changes in inflation data. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to support high oil prices, and if the conflict escalates further, the pressure of oil price shocks on inflation will persist, further delaying the Fed's window for rate cuts. ## Individual Stock News **JP Morgan (JPM.US) Q1 earnings exceed expectations, lowers full-year net interest income guidance.** JPMorgan's first-quarter financial report showed that benefiting from better-than-expected revenue in fixed income and investment banking, overall performance exceeded market expectations. Data showed that revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to $50.54 billion, better than the market expectation of $49.17 billion; earnings per share were $5.94, exceeding the market expectation of $5.45. Driven by increased activity in commodities, credit, foreign exchange, and emerging market trading, the bank's fixed income trading revenue surged by 21% to $7.08 billion The growth in merger and acquisition consulting and stock underwriting fees has driven a significant increase of 28% in investment banking business fees, reaching $2.88 billion. However, JP Morgan has lowered its full-year net interest income guidance for 2026, which is considered a core driver of bank profitability, from the previous $104.5 billion to approximately $103 billion. The stock fell in pre-market trading. **Wells Fargo (WFC.US) Q1 performance missed expectations.** Data shows that Wells Fargo's Q1 revenue grew by 6.5% year-on-year to $21.45 billion, falling short of the market expectation of $21.77 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.56, below the market expectation of $1.58. Q1 net interest income grew by only 5% year-on-year, missing market expectations. Wells Fargo stated that its exposure to private credit companies in the first quarter was approximately $36.2 billion, disclosing more details about this business category that investors are concerned about. Among the related collateral assets, companies in the commercial services, software, and healthcare industries accounted for about half of the total value, with software companies making up 17%. The bank's Chief Financial Officer expressed satisfaction with the risks in this underlying investment portfolio. As of the time of writing, Wells Fargo's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. **Citigroup's Q1 profits exceeded expectations.** Citigroup's Q1 revenue and profits both surpassed expectations. Earnings per share were $3.06, compared to an expectation of $2.65; revenue was $24.63 billion, against an expectation of $23.55 billion. CEO Jane Fraser stated in a statement that the bank is expected to achieve its tangible common equity return target this year and mentioned the company's recent streamlining efforts, saying, "We have entered the final stage of asset divestiture, with 90% of transformation projects currently meeting or nearing target status." The stock rose over 1% in pre-market trading. **BlackRock (BLK.US) Q1 revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, with ETF products helping to attract $130 billion.** The financial report shows that BlackRock's Q1 revenue grew by 27% year-on-year to $6.7 billion, better than the consensus expectation of $6.463 billion. Adjusted net profit was $2.1 billion, a 17% year-on-year increase; adjusted earnings per share were $12.53, exceeding the consensus expectation of $11.62. Q1 saw a net inflow of $130 billion. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $132 billion in funds, nearly contributing to the entire net inflow. As of the end of Q1, BlackRock's assets under management (AUM) decreased to $13.9 trillion, down from a record $14 trillion at the end of last year. As of the time of writing, BlackRock's stock rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. **Under price reduction agreements, large pharmaceutical companies show resilience, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) Q1 performance exceeding expectations and guidance raised.** Johnson & Johnson reported Q1 sales that exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year performance guidance, mainly due to strong sales growth of new cancer and depression drugs. The financial report shows that Johnson & Johnson's Q1 sales grew by 9.9% year-on-year to $24.1 billion, better than market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $2.70, also better than market expectations. Johnson & Johnson currently expects full-year sales to be between $100.3 billion and $101.3 billion, higher than the previous expectation of $100 billion to $101 billion The company also expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $11.45 and $11.65, higher than the previously expected range of $11.43 to $11.63. **Oracle (ORCL.US) spends big on a 2.8GW fuel cell order to solve AI power supply bottlenecks, Bloom Energy (BE.US) surges pre-market.** Oracle announced a strategic agreement with Bloom Energy to procure up to 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of fuel cell systems to meet the increasing electricity demands of its AI data centers. This move not only addresses the pain points of slow traditional grid approvals and long expansion cycles but also significantly shortens the computing power delivery cycle through a "plug-and-play" model that generates power directly on-site at data centers. Currently, the two parties have signed the first batch of installation contracts for 1.2 GW, and Oracle has even achieved a deep capital binding with Bloom Energy through warrants, aiming to ensure a continuous and stable energy supply for the large-scale AI clusters built for core clients like OpenAI and xAI. As of the time of publication, Bloom Energy surged nearly 14% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, while Oracle rose over 4%. **Credo (CRDO.US) surges pre-market after acquiring silicon photonics company DustPhotonics.** Credo announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire DustPhotonics, a developer of silicon photonic integrated circuit technology used in optical transceivers. This acquisition will bring silicon photonic integrated circuit technology in-house, expanding Credo's addressable market and deepening its optical interconnect product portfolio in the fields of 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T near-port optics and co-packaged optics applications. DustPhotonics has developed a portfolio of silicon photonic integrated circuit products covering 400G, 800G, and 1.6T, with a roadmap extending to 3.2T. According to estimates from LightCounting and Credo, the silicon photonic integrated circuit market is expected to grow to $6 billion by 2030. Credo stated that this acquisition, combined with its SerDes and digital signal processing intellectual property, will create an end-to-end optical connectivity solution platform. The company expects its integrated product portfolio of ZeroFlap optical transceivers, optical DSP, and silicon photonic products to generate over $500 million in optical business revenue in fiscal year 2027. As of the time of publication, Credo surged over 19% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. **United Airlines (UAL.US) and American Airlines (AAL.US) rise pre-market amid reports that United's CEO proposed a merger idea to Trump.** According to insiders, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby proposed a merger with American Airlines to President Trump in February. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy recently hinted in an interview that he would approve potential mergers between U.S. airlines, stating that Trump "would be pleased to see big deals happen." If United Airlines merges with American Airlines, it would be one of the most significant consolidation moves since the wave of mergers in the U.S. airline industry ended over a decade ago, further intensifying competition in the domestic market currently dominated by four major airlines As of the time of publication, United Airlines rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, while American Airlines increased over 7%. **Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) partners with OpenAI! Aiming for a revolution in drug development and efficiency.** Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk announced on Tuesday that it is collaborating with OpenAI to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) across its operations, from drug discovery to manufacturing and commercial operations. Novo Nordisk stated that this partnership will leverage OpenAI's technology to analyze complex datasets, identify promising drug candidates, and enhance efficiency in manufacturing, supply chain, distribution, and corporate operations. Novo Nordisk also mentioned that OpenAI will assist in training its global workforce to improve AI literacy and boost productivity across departments. The company's CEO, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, emphasized that this collaboration is not aimed at reducing Novo Nordisk's current workforce but rather at enhancing productivity and slowing down future hiring. As of the time of publication, Novo Nordisk rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast Beijing time 20:30 U.S. March PPI Beijing time the next day 00:15 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a panel discussion at the Semafor 2026 World Economic Conference Beijing time the next day 00:45 Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board Beijing time the next day 01:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Federal Reserve Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board's working forum ## Earnings Forecast Pre-market on Wednesday: ASML (ASML.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), Morgan Stanley (MS.US) ### Related Stocks - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - 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