--- title: "EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm stocks, FX gain on US-Iran de-escalation expectations" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282744114.md" description: "Latin American stocks and currencies rose as optimism grew over US-Iran negotiations to ease Middle East tensions. The MSCI index for LatAm equities increased by 0.8%, while currencies gained 0.6%. Despite this rebound, the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for emerging markets to 3.9%, citing recession risks if the conflict escalates. Brazil's Lula leads in election polls, and Colombia reversed its tariff plans on Ecuadorian imports. Oil prices fell below $100, impacting energy stocks negatively. Overall, the region's markets are reacting to geopolitical developments and economic forecasts." datetime: "2026-04-14T20:33:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282744114.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282744114.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282744114.md) --- # EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm stocks, FX gain on US-Iran de-escalation expectations \* Latam assets rebound as US-Iran talks expected to resume, easing oil concerns \* IMF lowers 2026 growth outlook for EM, warns of recession risk if conflict escalates \* Brazil election poll shows Lula ahead; Peru runoff set with Fujimori \* Colombia reverses plan for 100% tariffs on Ecuadorean imports (Updates with afternoon trading) By Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit April 14 (Reuters) - Stocks and currencies across most Latin American markets rose on Tuesday with investors optimistic that the United States and Iran would continue negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East that has rattled global markets. MSCI's index tracking equities in the region rose 0.8%, trading at multi-year highs. A corresponding index tracking currencies added 0.6% as the safe-haven dollar slipped. Both indexes have recouped their losses since the start of the conflict with Iran in late February, with the currencies benchmark at a record high. "The peak EM FX sell-off did not look particularly dramatic compared to other sharp risk-off periods, while several currencies are already trading at levels stronger versus the USD than before the war started," JPMorgan analysts said in a note, while stating a preference for Latam and EMEA EM FX. Negotiating teams from Washington and Tehran could return to Islamabad this week to resume talks to end the war, sources told Reuters, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Oil prices fell over 1% and slipped below $100 a barrel. Oil-deficient Chile's peso appreciated 0.8%, the most among major economies in Latam, while Colombia's peso and Mexico's peso firmed 0.2% each. Energy companies' share prices fell, with Petrobras down 4.2%, Ecopetrol down 4.4% and Argentina's YPF down 2.2%, tracking weaker oil prices. GROWTH WORRIES LOOM Despite optimism over the prospects for peace talks, uncertainties remained regarding the economic repercussions of the month-long conflict. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for global growth and warned that the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and if oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027. The fund lowered its 2026 growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies to 3.9% from its view of 4.2% in January, with commodity-importing countries expected to be hit the hardest due to higher energy and food costs. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, however, was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3% for 2026, helped by exporters such as Brazil, where higher oil prices provide some relief. Elections will be a pivotal event for Brazil later this year and a CNT/MDA poll showed that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff in the October general election. The local stock index edged up 0.4% and hit a record high. Meanwhile, Argentine bonds were marginally higher after a media report that the country will reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the second review of its $20 billion program as early as this week. Argentina's monthly inflation rate came in higher than analyst expectations, as markets keep a close eye on the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy. The benchmark stock index dropped 1.2%, while the local peso weakened 0.7%. Peru's sol slipped 0.5%. Elections over the weekend showed conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori will advance to a presidential runoff after she received 16.9% of the votes, with 74% of votes counted. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said his country would not impose 100% tariffs on imports from Ecuador, reversing an announcement made last week by the trade ministry. Local stocks added 0.6%. The U.S. issued a Venezuela-related general license that allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks and Venezuelan government individuals, according to documents posted to the U.S. Treasury Department's website. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 19:51 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging 1568.52 2.12 Markets MSCI LatAm 3363.15 0.79 Brazil Bovespa 198838.5 0.42 7 Mexico IPC 68957.47 -0.92 Chile IPSA 11321.42 1.69 Argentina MerVal 2956127. -1.19 86 Colombia COLCAP 2360.28 0.55 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.9903 0.12 Mexico peso 17.2557 0.26 Chile peso 885.88 0.79 Colombia 3578.56 0.24 peso Peru sol 3.3881 -0.54 Argentina 1,365.0 -0.74 peso (interbank) Argentina 1,390.0 0 peso (parallel) (Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Edmund Klamann) ### Related Stocks - [ILF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ILF.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE: IRAN'S URANIUM ENRICHMENT AND ITS CONTROL OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAIN AMONG STICKING POINTS](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287267667.md) - [AL-ARABIYA REPORTER: IRAN PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN IS SPEARHEADING EFFORTS TO RESTRAIN THE IRGC'S OVERSTEPPING ON POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC POLICY-MAKING](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287258581.md) - [Oil little changed as traders await breakthrough in US.-Iran negotiations](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286925961.md) - [TURKEY’S FX SALES REACH $8 BILLION AFTER COURT RULING TO REMOVE MAIN OPPOSITION LEADER](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287255398.md) - [Oil, Iran, and markets: Octa brand on how traders navigate geopolitical whiplash](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286948535.md)