---
title: "Traders Detect Shift in Tone on Iran War, Position for U.S. Treasury Rally"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282752301.md"
description: "Driven by optimism over a Middle East peace deal and falling oil prices, bond traders are positioning for a rise in U.S. Treasuries, expecting the 10-Year Yield to drop to 4%. On the options market, large positions bet that yields will fall from 4.25% to 4.18% within three weeks, potentially reaching as low as 4.1%. Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets noted that significant uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of this shift in tone"
datetime: "2026-04-14T22:48:41.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282752301.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282752301.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282752301.md)
---

# Traders Detect Shift in Tone on Iran War, Position for U.S. Treasury Rally

Optimism about a potential peace deal in the Middle East and declining oil prices have prompted bond traders to position for a rally in U.S. Treasuries, which could push the 10-Year Yield down to 4%. A large position on the options market bets that the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond will fall from its current level of 4.25% to 4.18% within three weeks. Another bet targets an even deeper rise in Treasuries, wagering that yields will drop to their lowest point since March 10 at 4.1%.

Ian Lyngen, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a report, "How long this shift in tone will last is undoubtedly a major uncertainty, and investors are aware that a single social media post could easily lead to a rapid reversal of the situation."

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