---
title: "Traders Detect Shift in Tone on Iran War, Position for U.S. Treasury Rally"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282752301.md"
description: "Driven by optimism over a Middle East peace deal and falling oil prices, bond traders are positioning for a rise in U.S. Treasuries, expecting the 10-Year Yield to drop to 4%. On the options market, large positions bet that yields will fall from 4.25% to 4.18% within three weeks, potentially reaching as low as 4.1%. Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets noted that significant uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of this shift in tone"
datetime: "2026-04-14T22:48:41.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282752301.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282752301.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282752301.md)
---

# Traders Detect Shift in Tone on Iran War, Position for U.S. Treasury Rally

Optimism about a potential peace deal in the Middle East and declining oil prices have prompted bond traders to position for a rally in U.S. Treasuries, which could push the 10-Year Yield down to 4%. A large position on the options market bets that the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond will fall from its current level of 4.25% to 4.18% within three weeks. Another bet targets an even deeper rise in Treasuries, wagering that yields will drop to their lowest point since March 10 at 4.1%.

Ian Lyngen, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a report, "How long this shift in tone will last is undoubtedly a major uncertainty, and investors are aware that a single social media post could easily lead to a rapid reversal of the situation."

### Related Stocks

- [EDV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EDV.US.md)
- [SPMB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPMB.US.md)
- [IAI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md)
- [511090.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/511090.CN.md)
- [KBE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KBE.US.md)
- [MBB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MBB.US.md)
- [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEF.US.md)
- [511010.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/511010.CN.md)
- [VFH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md)
- [KBWB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KBWB.US.md)
- [BND.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BND.US.md)
- [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLT.US.md)
- [DMBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DMBS.US.md)
- [159651.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159651.CN.md)
- [SHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SHY.US.md)
- [VMBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VMBS.US.md)
- [GOVT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOVT.US.md)
- [512820.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512820.CN.md)
- [512800.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512800.CN.md)
- [BIL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BIL.US.md)
- [KRE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KRE.US.md)
- [511520.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/511520.CN.md)
- [159887.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159887.CN.md)
- [AGG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AGG.US.md)
- [XLF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md)
- [516210.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/516210.CN.md)
- [515020.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/515020.CN.md)
- [SHV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SHV.US.md)
- [BMO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BMO.US.md)

## Related News & Research

- [TREASURIES-Yields rally after slight dip in early trading](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286919787.md)
- [TREASURIES-Yields on longer-dated bonds hit year-plus highs overnight](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286778191.md)
- [ANALYSIS-Investors gird for high US Treasury yields as new Fed Chair Warsh battles inflation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286359372.md)
- [TREASURIES-Yields fall after Trump signals Iran deal talk progress](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287111205.md)
- [This chart shows why AI will eventually mean lower bond yields](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286774916.md)