--- title: "UBS expects energy prices to remain high for a longer period, with oil prices potentially reaching $130 per barrel" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282799952.md" description: "The UBS report pointed out that due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the volatility of the Chinese stock market has intensified, with correlation rising to 0.8. Even if the strait reopens, energy prices may still remain high, with oil prices potentially reaching $130 per barrel, and the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 12%. UBS downgraded the consumer and real estate sectors to \"underweight,\" believing that inflation will limit the space for interest rate cuts, and noted that Chinese oil producers will benefit. UBS recommended several stocks, including JD.com, Baidu, and Fuyao Glass, all with a buy rating" datetime: "2026-04-15T06:46:39.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282799952.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282799952.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282799952.md) --- # UBS expects energy prices to remain high for a longer period, with oil prices potentially reaching $130 per barrel UBS published a report indicating that the Chinese stock market has recently fluctuated due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past month, the correlation between the Chinese stock market and the MSCI AC World Index has risen from a historical average of 0.6 to nearly 0.8. The bank believes that even if the strait can be reopened, energy prices may remain elevated for a longer period. The bank is approaching a bearish scenario forecast, assuming the disruption continues until the end of April, with oil prices potentially reaching $130 per barrel, which could lead to a 10% to 12% decline in the S&P 500 Index. In this context, UBS has listed several stock selection indicators, including stocks with upward revisions in earnings forecasts but declining share prices, a list of analyst preferred stocks, and stocks expected to have surprising or disappointing performance. The bank's strategy portfolio includes a more diversified stock allocation to address the uncertainties in the global energy market. UBS has downgraded the consumer and real estate sectors to "underweight," citing that rising inflation will limit further room for interest rate cuts. It also pointed out that if oil prices remain high, Chinese oil producers will benefit. The bank estimates that the average pricing of Chinese oil stocks reflects an oil price of $65 per barrel, significantly lower than its forecast of $90 to $100 per barrel. UBS's recommended stock ratings and target prices are detailed in the table below: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price JD.com - SW (09618.HK) | Buy | HKD 187 Baidu Group - SW (09888.HK) | Buy | HKD 165 Fuyao Glass (03606.HK) | Buy | HKD 93 Huatai Securities (601688.SH) | Buy | RMB 27.36 Zijin Mining (02899.HK) | Buy | HKD 60 North Huachuang (002371.SZ) | Buy | RMB 570 Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) | Buy | HKD 780 GDS (GDS.US) | Buy | USD 62 CATL (300750.SZ) | Buy | RMB 500 Shengyi Technology (600183.SH) | Buy | RMB 85 Dongfang Electric (01072.HK) | Buy | HKD 68 InvoTech (002837.SZ) | Buy | RMB 160 CNOOC (00883.HK) | Buy | HKD 37.8 BYD Company (01211.HK) | Buy | HKD 128 WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) | Buy | HKD 154 Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) | Buy | RMB 23 Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) | Buy | RMB 60.3 Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) | Buy | RMB 78 Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) | Buy | RMB 36.8 Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) | Buy | HKD 297 Keda Industrial Group (002850.SZ) | Buy | RMB 268 ### Related Stocks - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OXY.US.md) - [00883.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00883.HK.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Stocks Are Soaring. Is Wall Street Underestimating the Iran Energy Shock?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282934006.md) - [ANZ lifts oil price forecasts on Middle East supply losses](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282597798.md) - [BP flags "exceptional" oil trading results in first quarter](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282637999.md) - [ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil Shares Fall As Oil Tumbles On Iran Ceasefire Hopes](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282089352.md) - [Traders place large $950 million bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282061442.md)