Key points from the ASML earnings call are as follows:
<blockquote>
Full-year guidance raised, export controls factored in. The company has raised its full-year net sales forecast to EUR 36-40 billion. Management explicitly stated that this guidance range already incorporates potential impacts from export control uncertainties.
Memory customer capacity sold out through 2026. Customers have clearly indicated that capacity for 2026 is fully sold out, and supply tightness will persist beyond 2026. This surge in demand is backed by long-term commitments from downstream clients.
Non-EUV business demand reverses. Previously expected to be flat compared to last year, the non-EUV business outlook has now been upgraded to growth. Immersion DUV demand, which weakened significantly in 2025, has reversed, with sales volume for this year expected to approach last year's levels.
Technology roadmap: High NA reduces mask count and process steps. Client reports indicate that High NA can reduce EUV mask counts from three to one and compress process steps from 100 to 10, while covering the next 3-4 process nodes. A 1000W light source ensures Low NA can be extended through 2031.
Clear capacity targets. At least 60 Low NA EUV units will be shipped in 2026, and at least 80 units in 2027.
</blockquote>
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On April 15, ASML held an earnings conference call. First-quarter results beat expectations across the board: Net sales of EUR 8.77 billion, net profit of EUR 2.76 billion, and gross margin of 53% all exceeded market expectations. Simultaneously, the company raised its full-year net sales guidance to EUR 36-40 billion.
However, Q2 guidance became a short-term pressure point for the stock price—with median sales around EUR 8.7 billion, below the market expectation of EUR 9.07 billion, and gross margin declining sequentially. This weaker short-term guidance caused after-hours stock prices to drop over 2% at one point.
What markets truly worry about are three longer-term issues: Is the improvement in the non-EUV business merely a restocking cycle or a cyclical turning point? Can memory capacity expansion continue to accelerate? And how much flexibility remains after tightening export restrictions? On the call, management provided clear answers to each question.
Regarding non-EUV business: Previously expected to be flat compared to last year, the outlook is now upgraded to growth. The core driver is immersion DUV demand, which had weakened significantly in 2025 but &#34;has now reversed,&#34; with sales volume this year expected to approach last year's levels. Management's tone is notably positive: the reversal in non-EUV demand suggests a turning point rather than temporary order restocking.
Regarding memory capacity expansion: CEO Christoph Fouquet explicitly stated that customer capacity for 2026 is &#34;fully sold out,&#34; and supply tightness will persist beyond 2026. More importantly, substantial demand is backed by long-term commitments from downstream customers—not speculative inventory building, but capacity acceleration supported by genuine demand.
Regarding export controls: The company stated that the full-year guidance range of EUR 36-40 billion already includes potential impacts from export control uncertainties, asserting it possesses sufficient buffering capacity.
Furthermore, clear capacity targets and technological breakthroughs reinforce confidence: At least 60 Low NA EUV units will be shipped in 2026, and at least 80 in 2027. Technologically, a 1000W light source ensures Low NA extension through 2031; High NA can reduce mask counts from three to one and compress process steps from 100 to 10, covering the next 3-4 nodes.
<h2>Non-EUV Business Improvement: From &#34;Flat&#34; to &#34;Growth&#34;, Cyclical Turning Point Confirmed</h2>
ASML significantly raised its full-year outlook for the non-EUV business in this financial report. Previously, the company expected revenue from this segment to remain roughly flat compared to 2025, but management this quarter explicitly stated that demand has undergone a substantive reversal. CFO Roger Dassen noted in an interview: &#34;We are now seeing that demand in this business is actually increasing as well. Therefore, we expect non-EUV business revenue to increase.&#34;
The core driver of this change is the recovery in immersion DUV business. Roger Dassen revealed that immersion DUV demand had weakened significantly in 2025, leading to a slow start this year, but the demand trend has since reversed. &#34;Despite the slow start, for this year, by unit volume, we still expect immersion DUV sales to be very close to last year's levels.&#34; Dry DUV and application businesses also performed well.
From a qualitative perspective, this improvement is not a short-term order restock but a structural turning point. Sustained customer capacity constraints, spillover of AI infrastructure investment into mature nodes, and the implementation of long-term capacity construction plans collectively support the sustainability of non-EUV demand.
<h2>Memory Capacity Acceleration: High Certainty for 2026, Sustainability to Be Verified</h2>
Demand from memory chip customers was a key factor driving better-than-expected quarterly results. According to CEO Christophe Fouquet, major memory customers' capacity status is already extremely tight. He explicitly stated: &#34;Our customers tell us their 2026 capacity is fully sold out, and supply tightness will persist beyond 2026.&#34; This means customer capacity expansion plans have advanced significantly, creating clear and urgent demand for ASML equipment deliveries.
From a demand structure perspective, advanced memory (especially HBM related to AI) is the main force behind capacity expansion. Christophe Fouquet further pointed out that customers have not only increased capital expenditure but are also &#34;trying to accelerate their capacity ramp-up in 2026 and beyond.&#34; More importantly, substantial demand is backed by long-term commitments from their downstream customers, enhancing order visibility.
However, sustainability beyond 2027 remains to be observed. ASML has not yet disclosed the specific coverage period or signing progress of customer long-term commitments. While the mid-to-long-term logic of AI infrastructure investment remains solid, the inherent cyclical fluctuations of memory chips mean that if terminal demand growth slows, capacity expansion schedules may face adjustments.
<h2>Capacity Planning: At Least 60 Low Numerical Aperture EUV Units Targeted for Shipment in 2026</h2>
To meet accelerating customer demand, ASML is actively expanding its own capacity. Roger Dassen stated that the company's target for 2026 is to ship at least 60 Low NA EUV systems; looking ahead to 2027, if customer demand continues to support it, Low NA EUV shipments could rise to at least 80 units.
In the non-EUV product line, the company also plans to align its business with customer needs across all nodes. Christophe Fouquet added that the company will continue close collaboration with customers, helping them expand capacity through a combination of new system shipments, performance upgrades of existing systems, and installation base products.
<h2>Technology Roadmap: Low NA EUV Extends to 2031, High NA Accelerates Toward Mass Production</h2>
Regarding technological progress, Christophe Fouquet stated that ASML showcased a 1000W light source at the SPIE lithography technology conference, a breakthrough ensuring the long-term scalability of Low NA EUV—projected to handle 330 wafers per hour by 2031, a significant increase over current levels.
In the short term, ASML has increased the throughput of the NXE:3800E system from 220 wafers per hour to 230 wafers; the specifications for the next-generation NXE:3800F system have also been raised from 250 wafers per hour to 260 wafers, expected to boost capacity around 2028.
Regarding high numerical aperture EUV, Christophe Fouquet noted that customers began publicly discussing High NA applications at the SPIE conference. Client reports indicate that High NA can reduce the number of EUV masks required from three to one and compress process steps from 100 to 10. In terms of the ecosystem, photoresist partner research shows that High NA can extend to 18nm line pitch in logic chips and 28nm hole size in memory chips, covering 3-4 process nodes. Christophe Fouquet stated that as customers begin testing High NA on real products, equipment maturity continues to improve, with daily wafer output data showing continuous improvement.
<h2>Export Control Risks: Current Guidance Includes Buffer Space</h2>
Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, the impact of export controls on ASML's business has drawn significant attention. In this financial report, management unusually proactively addressed this issue. Roger Dassen explicitly stated: &#34;Within the guidance range of EUR 36-40 billion we have provided, we believe we can cope with the outcomes of the ongoing export control discussions.&#34;
This statement conveys two important signals. First, ASML has confidence in its geographic business structure and product portfolio, believing that even if restrictions tighten, it can mitigate negative impacts by reallocating resources and prioritizing other market demands. Roger Dassen previously emphasized that the company is &#34;fully aligned with customers, providing them with what they need,&#34; and this flexibility forms an important foundation for addressing geopolitical uncertainties. Second, the company does not view export restrictions as a disruptive risk but has made corresponding conservative estimates at the guidance level.
Of course, the evolution path of export controls remains highly uncertain. If restrictions exceed current expectations or involve more advanced equipment models, ASML's actual flexibility will require dynamic assessment. However, for now, the company has clearly signaled that the situation is &#34;under control.&#34;
Below is the full transcript of the earnings video (AI-assisted translation):
<blockquote>
Hello everyone, welcome to ASML's Q1 2026 earnings video. Welcome Christoph and Roger.
Roger, could you please summarize the Q1 2026 results for us?
Total net sales for this quarter were EUR 8.8 billion, within guidance. Installation base revenue was EUR 2.5 billion, slightly above guidance. Gross margin for Q1 was 53%, at the high end of our guidance range. As I mentioned earlier, the installation base business exceeded our expectations. Certain parts of this business actually delivered quite strong gross margins. Therefore, we achieved a high gross margin of 53%. Net profit for this quarter was EUR 2.8 billion.
Q2 2026 Guidance
Could you also provide the Q2 2026 earnings guidance?
For Q2, we expect total net sales between EUR 8.4 billion and EUR 9.0 billion. Installation base revenue is expected to remain at EUR 2.5 billion. We expect gross margin to be between 51% and 52%.
Market Dynamics
Christoph, now it's your turn. Could you please share your outlook on the market and your current view on the situation?
I believe we see semiconductor industry growth remaining solid. This is still primarily driven by investment in AI infrastructure. This translates into huge demand for advanced memory chips and advanced logic chips. We expect that in the foreseeable future, supply will fail to meet demand. This creates severe supply constraints in terminal markets ranging from AI to mobile devices and personal computers. Therefore, our customers are strongly urged to create more capacity. Regarding memory chips, our customers tell us their 2026 capacity is fully sold out, and supply tightness will persist beyond 2026. For advanced logic chips, we see customers building capacity across multiple nodes while continuing to ramp up 2nm capacity to meet AI product demand.
So, I think it's fair to say that much of this capacity increase has a positive impact on our own outlook?
Absolutely. We see memory and logic customers increasing capital expenditure and trying to accelerate their capacity ramp-up in 2026 and beyond. Equally interesting is that a large portion of this demand is supported by long-term commitments from their customers themselves. Most importantly, we see both memory customers (DRAM customers) and advanced logic customers continuing to increase adoption of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and immersion lithography. This basically translates to higher lithography intensity and higher ASML lithography demand. Therefore, we will continue to work closely with customers to increase our capacity. We are doing so in 2026 and will continue to do so in 2027.
Roger, perhaps you could add some details. Could you provide more specifics on what measures we will actually take to increase capacity to support market demand?
I think Christoph is right. We work very clearly with customers, fully aligned with them, providing them with what they need. This includes increasing capacity through new system shipments, upgrading system performance as much as possible, and providing installation base products. Through this combination, we strive to meet customer needs. Specifically regarding our own capacity, for this year (2026), we believe we can achieve production of at least 60 Low NA EUV systems. This is what we are currently working towards.
Additionally, we are also watching DUV in 2026. As I mentioned a few months ago, regarding immersion DUV, we actually started somewhat slowly because during last year (2025), we saw immersion DUV demand decrease significantly. Now this situation has reversed. I would say that despite the slow start, for this year, in terms of unit volume, we still expect immersion DUV sales to be very close to last year's. That is the situation for 2026.
Looking at 2027 capacity, we are gradually increasing our production pace quarter by quarter. Specifically for Low NA EUV, we expect to achieve by 2027—again, if customer demand truly supports it—we believe we can reach production of at least 80 Low NA EUV units. We are also working to align the non-EUV business with customer demand across all their nodes.
2026 Full-Year Guidance
Specifically for 2026, could you introduce the latest status of our own business for the full year?
Obviously, 2026 is developing very well. It is a very strong year. We expect it to be a year of strong growth. Based on all the customer dynamics Christoph mentioned, we are actually narrowing and simultaneously raising our expectation range for this year to EUR 36-40 billion.
If we look at different components, as we had anticipated, the EUV business will perform strongly this year. So the EUV business (including Low NA EUV and High NA EUV) will perform strongly this year. Regarding the non-EUV business, previously we expected this business to be flat compared to last year. But now, we see that demand in this business is actually increasing as well. Therefore, we expect non-EUV business revenue to increase. I have already mentioned our efforts in immersion DUV; dry DUV business also performed quite well. Application business is the same. Therefore, we believe that compared to a few months ago, we expect the non-EUV business to achieve growth. In the installation base business, there will also be strong growth. Because obviously, this is a very fast way for our customers to increase capacity to meet the demand Christoph mentioned.
What I want to say is, within the guidance range of EUR 36-40 billion we have provided, we believe we can cope with the outcomes of the ongoing export control discussions.
How is gross margin in 2026?
For gross margin, we maintain our expectation of 51% to 53%.
Technology Update
Now let's shift topics slightly to talk about technology. Christoph, could you provide some insights and updates on our technology and roadmap progress?
We continue to execute our technology roadmap very well. Every year, we use the SPIE (International Society for Optics and Photonics) conference to briefly present our achievements to the world. This year there are several important news items: First, we showcased a 1000W light source. This is very important because it means we can ensure Low NA EUV is scalable for many years to come. This essentially means that by 2031, we will be able to run this equipment at a speed of 330 wafers per hour, a significant improvement over today's levels.
Now, EUV progress also has a good impact on the short term. We have successfully increased the throughput of the NXE:3800E equipment from 220 wafers per hour to 230 wafers. This also helps short-term capacity. Our customers are happy to get more wafers from each piece of equipment. We are also raising the specification for the next-generation system NXE:3800F to 260 wafers per hour, previously 250 wafers per hour. This will also help our capacity around 2028.
Also at the SPIE conference, there were some progress updates on our high numerical aperture platform. Could you share them?
The benefit of the SPIE conference is that our customers start talking about High NA. They reported some things. The first thing is naturally that High NA allows them to significantly reduce mask count. DRAM and logic customers mention that using High NA can reduce EUV mask count from three to one. They also mention this can reduce process steps from 100 to 10. This is certainly significant. This is exactly why we developed High NA.
We also saw huge progress in the ecosystem. Some of our photoresist partners gave wonderful presentations, pointing out that High NA can extend to 18nm line width and pitch in logic chips, and to 28nm hole size in memory chips. This essentially means that High NA is not only ready to enter its golden age, but we already know High NA can mainly extend to 3-4 nodes. This is certainly very, very important for our customers.
Finally, equipment maturity is important. We continue to see better availability data. Producing more wafers per day, total output increases. Of course, as we see customers beginning to test High NA on real products, this becomes increasingly important.
Thank you both for joining our interview today. You're welcome.
</blockquote>

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ASML's first-quarter results exceeded expectations across the board, but a weak Q2 guidance sparked short-term market divergence. During the earnings call, management allayed concerns: non-EUV business outlook was upgraded from flat to growth; memory customer capacity for 2026 is fully sold out with support from downstream long-term commitments. The company confirmed at least 60 Low NA EUV units for delivery in 2026, while High NA technology achieved breakthroughs including reducing masks from three to one and compressing process steps from 100 to 10

- ASML raised its 2026 net sales guidance to €36 billion to €40 billion, incorporating uncertainties from export controls.  
- Storage customers reported full capacity for 2026, indicating ongoing supply constraints, while non-EUV business expectations shifted from steady to growth due to increased demand.  
- The company aims to deliver at least 60 Low NA EUV systems in 2026 and 80 in 2027, alongside significant improvements in technology, ensuring production capabilities extend through 2031.

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ASML Earnings Call Sets Tone: Memory Customer Capacity Sold Out for 2026, Long-Term Contracts Provide Floor; Non-EUV Growth 'Cyclical Turning Point Confirmed'