--- title: "China is about to announce its first-quarter economic data, with a Bloomberg survey estimating GDP growth at 4.8%" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/282912238.md" description: "China is about to announce its first-quarter economic data, and a Bloomberg survey shows that GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% year-on-year. This figure will be higher than the 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the slowest growth rate since the pandemic. Economists believe that the impact of the Iran war on the economy is limited, and China's energy security and economic resilience have strengthened. If the data is robust, it may reduce the need for additional stimulus policies. It is expected that the People's Bank of China will not cut interest rates this year, and policymakers will adopt a wait-and-see approach" datetime: "2026-04-16T00:15:26.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282912238.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282912238.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282912238.md) --- # China is about to announce its first-quarter economic data, with a Bloomberg survey estimating GDP growth at 4.8% China today announced its first-quarter economic data, with foreign media predicting that economic growth may rebound during the quarter. This gives policymakers time to assess the impact of the Iran war on the world's second-largest economy before taking stimulus measures. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the median growth rate for first-quarter GDP to be 4.8% year-on-year, with official data to be released on Thursday. If true, this would be higher than the 4.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is the slowest growth rate for China since the lifting of pandemic lockdowns at the end of 2022. Reports indicate that so far, the impact of military action by the U.S. and Israel against Iran on economic activity may be limited, partly due to China's recent strengthening of energy security and its ability to withstand economic shocks. Additionally, long-term deflationary pressures have also weakened the immediate impact of rising oil prices on consumer prices. However, with a significant increase in imports of high-tech products in March (driven by factors such as the AI investment boom), the goods trade surplus in the first quarter, calculated in RMB, decreased by nearly 5% year-on-year. This suggests that net exports may provide less support to the economy, but strong global demand related to AI is helping Chinese companies withstand the impacts of the Middle East conflict on the global economy. The report also states that if economic data performs robustly, the urgency to introduce additional stimulus policies will decrease, especially after Beijing has lowered its GDP growth target to a range of 4.5% to 5% (the lowest since 1991). An increasing number of economists predict that the People's Bank of China will not cut interest rates this year, as the oil crisis has raised inflation expectations. Economists at Macquarie Group, led by Hu Weijun, stated in a report on Friday that they expect policymakers to adopt a wait-and-see approach for now. China's stimulus policies will depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the development of the AI boom, both of which remain important tailwinds for exports ### Related Stocks - [000300.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000300.CN.md) - [000001.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000001.CN.md) - [000047.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000047.CN.md) - [510210.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/510210.CN.md) - [MQG.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MQG.AU.md) ## Related News & Research - [China Flight Prices Fall Pre-Holiday Even as Airlines Raise Surcharges](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284533728.md) - [The GDP-employment disconnect is deepening in China](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284077671.md) - [Did the economy actually get stronger during the Iran war? Here's what the numbers tell us.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284606373.md) - [ANTI-REGIME VOICES IN IRAN SIGNAL PROTESTS MAY RETURN — THIS TIME POTENTIALLY ARMED](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284620304.md) - [Europe’s wealthiest economies in 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284513075.md)