On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities for March 2026. The data shows that in March, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in first-tier cities increased month-on-month, while the decline in second and third-tier cities narrowed or remained the same. The number of cities with month-on-month increases in the sales prices of new commercial residential properties and second-hand residential properties both increased compared to the previous month.
13 cities saw month-on-month increases in second-hand housing prices, with first-tier cities experiencing a general rise
From the perspective of the second-hand housing market, the current real estate market shows a strong recovery in second-hand housing, with core first-tier cities leading the way.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities changed from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.4%. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all experienced general increases, rising by 0.6%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4%, respectively.
Second and third-tier cities' second-hand housing prices are still in an adjustment range, but the decline has narrowed across the board. Among them, second-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points; third-tier cities decreased by 0.4%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points.
At the city level, in March, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 13 cities saw month-on-month increases in second-hand residential property sales prices, an increase of 11 from the previous month, expanding from only Beijing and Shanghai to a list of 13 cities. This includes Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, Guangzhou, Wuxi, Shenyang, Xiamen, Jinan, Haikou, and Chongqing. Among them, Beijing ranked first among the 70 cities with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, followed closely by Shanghai and Shenzhen, both rising by 0.4%. Cities like Ningbo, Qingdao, Xi'an, and Jinzhou saw second-hand housing prices remain flat month-on-month.
&#34;From the actual situation, the recent performance of second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities is quite good. Even in April, cities like Shanghai are still seeing record high transaction data on weekends and weekdays, indicating strong market momentum, high transaction activity, and fast conversion rates, with market confidence rapidly warming up,&#34; commented Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute.
Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that while overall second-hand housing prices are still at the bottom range, signs of stabilization are further strengthening. According to online monitoring data from platforms, the proportion of searches for second-hand housing has risen for nine consecutive months to 74.8%, reaching a nearly one-year high, with a diversion strength of 34.1% from new homes, clearly indicating a trend of demand shifting towards the second-hand housing market. The recovery of second-hand housing in core cities is leading, with landlords' confidence steadily rising, an increase in listings, and a faster transaction pace, as the market transitions from &#34;price for volume&#34; to &#34;stable prices with increased volume.&#34;
In terms of year-on-year comparisons, in March, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 7.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year decreases of 8.3%, 6.2%, 8.1%, and 7.0%, respectively. Second-tier cities' second-hand residential property sales prices decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month; third-tier cities saw a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points
Zhang Bo believes that the space for housing price declines has further narrowed, with the recovery momentum in first-tier and strong second-tier cities continuing to strengthen. The pattern of core cities stabilizing, second-tier cities recovering, and third- and fourth-tier cities bottoming out will become clearer. As the decline in leading market indicators shrinks and landlords' expectations for price adjustments become more optimistic, this round of the real estate market's &#34;small spring&#34; is expected to last until May.
Cities with Rising New Home Prices Expand, Shanghai Leads Year-on-Year Growth
In terms of the new housing market, the range of cities with month-on-month price increases further expanded in March, with first-tier cities experiencing month-on-month increases for two consecutive months.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities changed from flat to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Among them, Beijing remained flat, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased by 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, respectively. The month-on-month sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, with the decline rates remaining the same as the previous month.
Yan Yuejin stated that various city markets are currently showing positive changes, with first-tier cities playing a significant leading role. Since the beginning of this year, the number of property viewings in first-tier cities has significantly increased, market activity has improved, and the price declines in second- and third-tier cities have continued to narrow. Overall, first-tier cities have ended the previous nine months of decline, achieving month-on-month increases for two consecutive months, with the growth rate expanding.
In March, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, 14 cities saw month-on-month increases in the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties, an increase of 4 from the previous month, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Dalian, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Yinchuan, Jilin, Yichang, Hefei, Qingdao, Mudanjiang, Yantai, and Huizhou. Among them, Shanghai and Guangzhou tied for first place among the 70 cities with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while Beijing and Wenzhou's new home prices remained flat month-on-month.
Year-on-year data shows that in March, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 2.2%, the same decline rate as the previous month. Among them, Shanghai saw a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, making it the only first-tier city with positive year-on-year growth in new home prices, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year declines of 2.1%, 4.7%, and 5.5%, respectively. The year-on-year sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in second-tier cities decreased by 3.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points; third-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, with the decline rate remaining the same as the previous month.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that from a regional perspective, the signs of recovery are most evident in core cities along the eastern coast, with new home prices in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo in the Yangtze River Delta increasing month-on-month. Some hot cities in the central and western regions are still adjusting, with new home prices in new first-tier cities like Wuhan, Chengdu, and Chongqing slightly decreasing month-on-month, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous month, and the market is gradually entering a bottoming phase. In some northeastern cities like Shenyang and Dalian, new home prices have stopped rising and stabilized month-on-month, with the decline in second-hand housing prices narrowing, showing a steady recovery trend in the regional market.
Regarding the future market, Zhang Dawei believes that in the short term, housing prices in first-tier cities are likely to continue to warm, with prices of quality properties in core locations remaining stable or even slightly increasing, and the activity of second-hand housing further improving. Second- and third-tier cities will continue to stabilize at low levels, with the decline rates gradually narrowing, and cities where some policies take effect quickly are expected to be the first to stop falling and start rising. In the medium to long term, the market differentiation pattern determined by city levels, regional resources, and product quality will continue
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In March, the prices of second-hand houses in first-tier cities rose across the board, with Shanghai increasing by 0.4%, and Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rising by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a significant recovery in the second-hand housing market, with prices rising in 13 cities, an increase of 11 compared to the previous month. The decline in second-tier cities has narrowed, and there are clear signs of stabilization in overall second-hand housing prices, boosting market confidence

腾讯新闻 - 财经

In March, first-tier cities saw a general increase in second-hand housing prices: Shanghai rose by 0.4%, marking two consecutive months of increase