--- title: "Morgan Stanley lowers target prices for the three major Chinese telecom stocks by 6% to 13%, expecting dividend returns of 5 to 6 cents to support stock prices" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283101566.md" description: "Morgan Stanley lowered the target price for Chinese telecom stocks by 6% to 13%, expecting service revenue to decline by 1.4% in 2026. China Telecom and China Unicom's net profit is expected to decline by 10% to 12%, while China Mobile is expected to decline by about 5%. At the same time, a dividend yield of 5% to 6% is expected to support the stock price. The target prices for China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom have been lowered, maintaining a \"market perform\" rating. Revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2027 have been revised down by 1% to 1.2%, and operating profit forecasts have been revised down by 9.6% and 8.1%" datetime: "2026-04-17T06:45:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283101566.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283101566.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283101566.md) --- # Morgan Stanley lowers target prices for the three major Chinese telecom stocks by 6% to 13%, expecting dividend returns of 5 to 6 cents to support stock prices Morgan Stanley published a report stating that it expects Chinese telecom stocks to see a year-on-year decline of 1.4% in service revenue for the first quarter of this year. Considering the impact of value-added tax, it is anticipated that China Telecom (00728.HK) and China Unicom (00762.HK) will see net profits decline by 10% to 12% in 2026, while China Mobile (00941.HK) will decline by about 5%; on the other hand, China Tower (00788.HK) is expected to see a net profit growth of 30% due to depreciation savings. The firm expects that the industry service revenue for Chinese telecom stocks will decline by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, consistent with the growth reported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in January-February 2026. The firm predicts that Unicom's net profit will drop by 14.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, estimates that China Telecom's net profit will drop by 17.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, and expects China Mobile's net profit to drop by 8.3% year-on-year in the first quarter. The firm estimates that the industry's growth rate will slightly improve in the second and third quarters of this year. Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price for Chinese telecom stocks by 6% to HKD 13 to account for the impact of value-added tax, reducing the target price for Unicom's H shares from HKD 8 to HKD 7, maintaining a "market perform" rating; the firm lowered the target price for China Telecom's H shares from HKD 5.5 to HKD 5, maintaining a "market perform" rating; and lowered the target price for China Mobile's H shares from HKD 85 to HKD 80, maintaining a "market perform" rating. The firm believes that the current dividend yield of 5% to 6% for Chinese telecom stocks can provide some downside protection for the stock price. The firm stated that it has lowered its revenue forecast for China Mobile for 2026 to 2027 by 1% to 1.2%, reflecting the impact of value-added tax on mobile/broadband data and SMS. As a result, the firm has reduced its operating profit forecasts by 9.6% and 8.1%, and lowered its normalized earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2027 by 12.8% and 10.9%. The firm has introduced a 2028 earnings per share forecast of RMB 6.62. Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecast for China Mobile's dividend per share this year from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.29, and lowered its forecast for next year's dividend per share from HKD 6.03 to HKD 5.61, expecting its dividend per share in 2028 to be HKD 6.22 ### Related Stocks - [00941.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00941.HK.md) - [601728.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601728.CN.md) - [00762.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00762.HK.md) - [00728.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00728.HK.md) - [600941.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600941.CN.md) - [600050.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600050.CN.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [CHA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CHA.US.md) - [80941.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/80941.HK.md) - [00788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00788.HK.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) - [HCMD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HCMD.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Telecom giant China Mobile to launch AI-eSIM product](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285298633.md) - [US telecom agency votes to expand tech crackdown on China](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284804472.md) - [Shentel Completes the Expansion of Gigabit Broadband Service in Franklin County | SHEN Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285177855.md) - [Norway sovereign wealth fund's return in 2026 stands at 4.2%, says fund chief](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285165020.md) - [Shenandoah Telecommunications (SHEN) Persistent Losses Reinforce Bearish Profitability Narratives Heading Into Q1 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284957147.md)