--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Oil Prices Decline, Netflix Plummets After Earnings" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283140751.md" description: "On April 17th, the three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.51%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.29%. At the same time, WTI crude oil fell 4.16%, reported at $90.75 per barrel. Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran might resume talks over the weekend, claiming they are close to reaching an agreement. Tech stocks are leading a global stock market rebound, and investors are optimistic about the U.S. stock market, believing a new bull market is forming" datetime: "2026-04-17T12:06:14.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283140751.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283140751.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283140751.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Oil Prices Decline, Netflix Plummets After Earnings ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of April 17 (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.51%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.29%. ![11.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260417/1776427117141913.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.50%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.25%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.39%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.32%. ![12.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260417/1776427120249013.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 4.16%, priced at $90.75 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 3.47%, priced at $95.94 per barrel. ![13.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260417/1776427124310216.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **Trump says U.S. and Iran may resume talks this weekend.** According to reports, U.S. President Trump stated during a media interview at the White House on the 16th that the next talks between the U.S. and Iran may take place this weekend. Trump expressed his hope to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement before the expiration of the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran. Trump stated, "We are very close to reaching an agreement," and that he would announce it publicly if negotiations are successful. Trump also announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a 10-day ceasefire starting at 5 PM Eastern Time on Thursday. Since the ceasefire in Lebanon is a prerequisite for Iran to advance U.S.-Iran negotiations, this development is also seen as a sign of easing tensions in the Middle East. However, it is worth noting that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a statement on social media on the morning of the 17th, indicating that a commander of the resistance front has issued a severe and unprecedented warning to all commercial and military vessels in the Strait of Mandeb. **The stock market has already ignored the war! From "TACO trading" to the AI investment frenzy, is a new bull market unfolding?** As technology stocks lead a significant rebound in global stock markets—especially with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices continuously reaching historical highs during geopolitical conflicts—investors have sounded the horn for a new global stock market "bull charge." Several institutions, including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock, have recently been bullish on U.S. stocks. The narrative of this new bull market is fundamentally supported by three main logics: the resilience of corporate earnings highlighted in the latest U.S. earnings season, the renewed risk appetite driven by technology stocks/AI computing themes, and the market's judgment that the Middle East impact will not evolve into a long-term inflation scenario like in 2022. As long as these three pillars of logic remain intact, Wall Street will continue to treat war-related headlines as trading noise **"Reverse Perfect Storm" Sweeps U.S. Stocks! Citigroup Shouts: Software Stocks May Welcome a Revenge Bounce, U.S. Stocks Forming a "Point-to-Surface" Surge Pattern This Summer.** The head of U.S. equity strategy at Citigroup, Chris Kroner, suggested that as the U.S. stock market enters a critical earnings disclosure season, the technology sector is experiencing a so-called "reverse perfect storm." Kroner analyzed that despite the semiconductor, software, and hyperscale data center sectors facing distinctly different market pressures in recent times, the upcoming robust quarterly results are expected to further validate the current investment logic surrounding artificial intelligence and strongly support the leading position of tech giants in the market. The core logic of this prediction lies in the fact that investors are currently urgently seeking confirmation of fundamentals to prove that the significant earnings beats and upward guidance over the past few quarters are not fleeting but possess sustainable growth momentum. **"Animal Spirits" Have Returned with Greater Force: Retail Investors Ignore Middle Eastern Turmoil, Sweeping U.S. Stocks with the Strongest Offensive Since 2020.** Retail investors are making a significant return to the stock market. Stocks favored by individual investors—compared to those preferred by institutions—are experiencing the strongest month since November 2020. Goldman Sachs' basket index tracking the most favored stocks by retail investors has risen 22% since the end of March. At least for now, positive market sentiment remains dominant. Demand for options contracts betting on a short-term rise in U.S. stocks is strong. As an important supporting force in the stock market, retail buying is expected to become more pronounced after the tax deadline on April 15—investors anticipate that the tax refund this year will be higher than usual due to the tax plan from the Trump administration. **Former Morgan Stanley Strategist: S&P 500's 10% Rise Is Not Due to Stronger Fundamentals, But CTA Funds Replenishing Positions.** Regarding the recent strong rally of the S&P 500 index, former Chief Strategist and Co-Head of Global Research at JPMorgan, Marko Kolanovic, pointed out that the current strong performance of the stock market is not due to substantial improvements in commodity fundamentals or a fundamental improvement in geopolitical situations, but rather driven by internal position adjustments in financial markets and systematic trading flows. He emphasized that this rally, independent of macroeconomic catalysts, reveals potential mechanistic characteristics in the current market pricing mechanism. In this wave of market movement, commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds, which focus on trend-following strategies, have played a key role. **IEA Warns: Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Does Not Mean Immediate Recovery of Oil and Gas Production, Full Recovery May Take Two Years.** The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, stated that it may take up to two years to restore most of the oil and gas production capacity disrupted by the Iran war. Birol pointed out that the destruction caused by the conflict has affected oil fields, refineries, and pipelines in the Persian Gulf region, and the recovery of capacity will be a gradual process. Additionally, due to the near closure of the crucial energy transport route—the Strait of Hormuz—the market has lost hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil and refined products. Birol stated, "It is commonly believed that once the strait is open, production capacity will immediately return to previous levels—but in my view, this idea is misleading." ## Individual Stock News **Netflix (NFLX.US) plummets before the market! Q2 cold guidance "douses" the hot Q1 financial report, and the founder's departure adds to the chill.** Netflix's Q1 performance was strong, with revenue growing 16% year-on-year to $12.25 billion, slightly above the market expectation of $12.18 billion; net profit nearly doubled from $2.89 billion in the same period last year to $5.28 billion; earnings per share reached $1.23, far exceeding the market expectation of $0.76. However, the company provided weak guidance for Q2. Netflix expects Q2 earnings per share to be $0.78, below the market expectation of $0.84; it also expects Q2 revenue guidance to be $12.57 billion, which is also below the market expectation of $12.64 billion. Although the company reiterated its full-year revenue range remains unchanged at $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion and emphasized that its advertising business is expected to achieve $3 billion in revenue by 2026, doubling from the previous year, the content amortization costs in Q2 will be concentrated in the first half of the year due to project scheduling, putting pressure on profits. In addition, Netflix announced that co-founder Reed Hastings will step down from the board, marking the end of his 29-year leadership tenure, which the market views as the conclusion of an era. As of the time of publication, Netflix's stock fell nearly 11% in pre-market trading on Friday. **Aluminum price rise fails to mask the downturn! Alcoa (AA.US) Q1 revenue misses expectations, maintains full-year production forecast.** Despite the rise in aluminum prices, Alcoa's Q1 earnings and revenue both fell short of expectations. The financial report shows that Alcoa's Q1 revenue was $3.19 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and $80 million lower than market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $1.40, while the market expectation was $1.55. Q1 alumina production decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter to 2.4 million tons, while aluminum production remained flat at 607,000 tons. The company expects total alumina production and shipments for 2026 to be in line with previous forecasts, between 9.7 million and 9.9 million tons and between 11.8 million and 12 million tons, respectively; it also expects total aluminum production and shipments for 2026 to remain consistent with previous forecasts, at 2.4 million to 2.6 million tons and 2.6 million to 2.8 million tons, respectively. As of the time of publication, Alcoa's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday. **Weak demand coupled with AI cost pressures, Ericsson (ERIC.US) Q1 profit plummets 20%, missing expectations.** Affected by the continued sluggish demand in the global telecommunications equipment market and the AI boom driving up semiconductor procurement costs, Swedish telecom equipment giant Ericsson's Q1 earnings fell short of market expectations. The financial report shows that Ericsson's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) for Q1 were 5.6 billion Swedish Krona (approximately $610 million), down 20% year-on-year, and below the average analyst estimate of 5.84 billion Krona. Excluding restructuring costs, adjusted operating profit was 5.2 billion Swedish Krona (approximately $566 million), also below the average analyst expectation of 5.4 billion Krona. During the same period, net sales recorded 49.3 billion Krona, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, lower than the market estimate of 50.7 billion Krona. As of the time of publication, Ericsson's stock fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Friday **Counterpoint: In the first quarter, Apple's (AAPL.US) iPhone shipments in China grew by 20% against the trend.** According to data from Counterpoint Research, despite the pressure on the smartphone market due to rising storage prices, Apple's iPhone shipments in China increased by 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, the highest growth rate among major brands. Meanwhile, affected by supply chain disruptions and soaring chip prices, smartphone shipments in China, the world's largest smartphone market, declined by 4% from January to March. **Indianapolis Power & Light (NI.US) secures long-term power supply agreement with Google (GOOGL.US) and deepens energy cooperation with Amazon (AMZN.US).** The American utility operator Indianapolis Power & Light announced that it has reached a significant energy infrastructure agreement with a subsidiary of tech giant Google and Amazon. Under the agreement, Indianapolis Power & Light will provide long-term power support for Google's new large-scale data center in northern Indiana, with the first phase of power supply expected to commence in the summer of 2026. At the same time, the company has further deepened its existing cooperation with Amazon Web Services, aiming to accelerate the speed of power delivery to Amazon's sites and ensure that related energy subsidies benefit end-use customers sooner. As of the time of publication, Indianapolis Power & Light's stock rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Friday. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts At 23:30 Beijing time, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak. At 00:15 Beijing time the next day, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak. At 02:00 Beijing time the next day, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak ### Related Stocks - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [NFLX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NFLX.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [BLK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BLK.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [AA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AA.US.md) - [ERIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ERIC.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [NI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NI.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) - [BTX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTX.US.md) - [BIT.RT*.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BIT.RT*.US.md) - [BDJ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BDJ.US.md) - [BSTZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BSTZ.US.md) - [BIT.RT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BIT.RT.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Trump says gas prices may stay high even if Iran war ends](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283131910.md) - [Gas prices are rising again. Here's how to stretch your tank.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282683263.md) - [Sugar Prices Follow Crude Oil Higher](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283041541.md) - [California gas prices remain high despite global oil market fluctuations](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282704935.md) - [3 obscure commodities are rising as fast as oil right now. Here’s how the Iran war could ripple through your wallet beyond gas prices](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283149617.md)