--- title: "Cathay Securities | Pharmaceuticals: The Birth of Major Drugs - Series on Autoimmunity: The Trillion-Yuan Autoimmunity Sector Welcomes Generational Change, MNCs Accelerate Entry into Next-Generation Pipelines" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283173095.md" description: "Guotai Junan released a research report, pointing out that the hundred billion autoimmune track faces a patent cliff and efficacy bottleneck, calling for the emergence of the next generation of disruptive blockbuster drugs. MNCs are accelerating the layout of new therapies, and Chinese pharmaceutical companies are actively participating in global layouts, welcoming opportunities for valuation reshaping. The report maintains an \"overweight\" rating for the industry, believing that autoimmune blockbuster drugs are the cornerstone of MNC business, and Chinese companies are expected to achieve breakthroughs in autoimmune technology in the future. Historical cases show that the autoimmune track has previously spawned multiple heavyweight products, driving MNC market capitalization growth" datetime: "2026-04-17T09:20:23.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283173095.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283173095.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283173095.md) --- # Cathay Securities | Pharmaceuticals: The Birth of Major Drugs - Series on Autoimmunity: The Trillion-Yuan Autoimmunity Sector Welcomes Generational Change, MNCs Accelerate Entry into Next-Generation Pipelines Report Overview: The billion-dollar autoimmune sector is constrained by the "patent cliff" and efficacy/compliance bottlenecks, calling for the emergence of the next generation of disruptive blockbuster drugs. Multinational corporations (MNCs) have accelerated their layout of next-generation new therapies. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are deeply involved in the global layout of MNC's autoimmune business through significant business development (BD); forward-looking Chinese companies focusing on core technologies are ushering in a golden turning point for overtaking and valuation reshaping. Investment Recommendation: Maintain an "Overweight" rating for the industry. Autoimmune blockbuster drugs are an important cornerstone of MNC's existing business; as patents approach expiration, MNC is accelerating the layout of the next-generation autoimmune pipeline. Chinese companies are expected to achieve a leapfrog in the next-generation autoimmune technology path and deeply participate in MNC's global layout in the autoimmune business. The autoimmune sector has produced multiple "blockbuster" drugs, catalyzing the emergence of several MNCs with a market value of over a hundred billion. Historically, the autoimmune sector has produced several blockbuster products exceeding the billion-dollar mark, catalyzing the emergence of multiple MNCs with a market value of over a hundred billion dollars. Reviewing AbbVie's history, the significant volume of core blockbuster products and pipeline iterations have led to two rounds of substantial stock price increases during a golden growth period. The first round (2013-2018): relying on the "king of drugs" adalimumab's volume (with peak sales of approximately $19.9 billion in 2018), the stock price rose from $19.90 to $87.44, with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 34%; the second round (2020-2025) relies on the successful transition and rapid volume increase of upadacitinib and risankizumab, with the stock price rising from $50.56 to $240.69, achieving an IRR of 33%. Similarly, reviewing Sanofi's history, after the launch of the blockbuster dupilumab, global sales have climbed to $17.8 billion by 2025; the company's stock price rose from a low of $28.56 in 2018 to nearly $56.90 by 2025, with an IRR of 11%. Currently, standard therapies have many limitations, and technological iterations are expected to create a larger market space. Even with many limitations in efficacy and compliance, first-generation autoimmune products still maintain good sales performance in the global market, producing several blockbuster products worth billions, demonstrating the excellent development potential of the autoimmune market. We predict that next-generation autoimmune products will undergo comprehensive technological iterations in terms of efficacy, safety, and compliance, helping patients establish better medication habits, extend the duration of therapy (DOT), and further open up the autoimmune market space. MNCs are accelerating the layout of next-generation autoimmune products, and Chinese companies are expected to achieve leapfrogging. Reviewing MNC's significant BD transactions with a total amount exceeding $1 billion, we find that MNC's layout in the autoimmune sector is continuously accelerating; since 2024, the participation of Chinese companies in MNC's significant BD transactions in the autoimmune sector has rapidly increased, with the potential to achieve leapfrogging in the next-generation technology path and deeply participate in MNC's global layout in the autoimmune business. From the perspective of technological iteration paths, for T-cell-mediated autoimmune diseases, MNC has focused on the technological fields of dual/multiple cytokine blockers, long-acting and inhalation formulations, and oral products over the past three years, with new target exploration mainly focusing on TL1A For B cell-mediated autoimmune diseases, in the past three years, MNC has focused on technology areas such as TCE immunoresetting therapy, cell gene therapy immunoresetting therapy, and complement inhibitors. Chinese companies are at the forefront internationally in several fields, including cytokine dual/multiple blockers and TCE immunoresetting therapy. Risk Warning: Risks of research and development falling short of expectations, risks of commercialization falling short of expectations, etc. Report Source The above content is excerpted from the securities research report published by Guotai Junan Securities. Report Title: The Birth of Major Pharmaceuticals in Autoimmunity Series 1: The Trillion-Yuan Autoimmunity Track Welcomes Generational Change, MNC Accelerates to Seize the Next Generation Pipeline; Report Date: 2026.04.16 Report Authors: Wang Jin (Analyst), Registration Number: S0880526030004 Yu Keqing (Analyst), Registration Number: S0880525120002 Yu Wenxin (Analyst), Registration Number: S0880525040111 Important Reminder The content contained in this subscription account is intended only for clients who have signed up for research services with Guotai Junan Securities. As this material currently cannot set access restrictions, in accordance with the requirements of the "Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures," if you are not a signed client of Guotai Junan Securities research services, to ensure service quality and control investment risks, please unfollow, do not subscribe to, receive, or use any information in this subscription account. 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