Where will the money for AI be recouped? Goldman Sachs has provided a specific answer: autonomous driving.
Currently, investments by tech giants in AI data centers have approached $700 billion, approximately ten times the level of 2020. Whether this capital can generate sufficient returns is one of Wall Street's core questions.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney recently released a new report focusing on &#34;the impact of AI on profit pools,&#34; specifically assessing how much incremental profit AI-enabled transportation sectors can create. The report argues that autonomous driving commercialization is accelerating and serves as a key source of return on AI investments.
<h2>Robotaxi: Forecast Nearly Triples Within a Year</h2>
Delaney issued preliminary forecasts about a year ago (June 2025). Following this update, the figures have surged significantly.
Forecast for the U.S. robotaxi market:
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2030: Revised upward from the previous $7 billion to $19 billion
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2035: Further increased to $48 billion
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On a global scale, Delaney expects the robotaxi market to reach $415 billion by 2035, with gross margins for vertically integrated operators potentially reaching 30% to 50%, corresponding to gross profits of approximately $150 billion.
The core logic driving this forecast revision is that the deployment scale of autonomous vehicles in the U.S., China, and Europe is expanding rapidly. Delaney pointed out, &#34;These deployments rely on proprietary technologies from companies such as Waymo, Tesla, and Pony AI, while also benefiting from commercial Physical AI tools provided by firms like NVIDIA (such as the Alpamayo platform).&#34;
Market demand signals are already emerging. Data shows that Waymo's market share in San Francisco reached 30% just 20 months after officially commencing commercial operations. Meanwhile, Google search data indicates sustained growth in consumer interest in robotaxis.
<h2>Autonomous Trucking: A Larger Profit Pool</h2>
Beyond robotaxis, Delaney believes autonomous trucking will be another major source of profits.
Forecast data:
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U.S. Class 8 autonomous trucking market: $16 billion in 2030, $105 billion in 2035
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Global market: Approximately $560 billion in 2035
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Global gross profits: Over $135 billion in 2035, totaling approximately $300 billion over the next decade
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Costs are also improving rapidly. Delaney estimates that the cost per mile for autonomous trucks will drop significantly by the end of this decade and stabilize at around $2 per mile in the mid-next decade.
&#34;Overall, we expect that as cost structures improve and fleet sizes expand, the global gross profit pool for autonomous trucks will grow from near zero in 2025 to approximately $135 billion by 2035,&#34; Delaney wrote in the report.
Multiple companies have already positioned themselves in the North American market, including Aurora, Kodiak, Waabi, and Plus, all planning to rapidly expand their fleet sizes in the coming years.
<h2>Disruption: Existing Markets Facing Upheaval Worth $440 Billion</h2>
The expansion of autonomous driving is not just about adding new markets; it also implies substitution for existing industries.
Citing data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delaney estimated that the economic scale potentially impacted within the United States is approximately $440 billion, covering:
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Wage income for taxi, ride-hailing, shuttle, and freight drivers
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Order revenue allocated to drivers on ride-hailing platforms
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Potential declines in vehicle sales if personal travel demand is fully absorbed by autonomous ride-hailing services
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Delaney directly named the ride-hailing industry in the report: &#34;Our baseline forecast is that by 2030, autonomous driving will erode 5% of total ride-hailing orders in the U.S. and Canada; under a pessimistic scenario, this proportion could rise to 16%.&#34;
Waymo's 30% market share in San Francisco already serves as a concrete reference point.
Delaney concluded that the large-scale influx of autonomous vehicles on roads in the U.S. and other developed nations is an inevitable trend. Fleets are already operating, and true scaling will begin next year.

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Goldman Sachs analysts believe that autonomous driving deployment relies on proprietary technologies from companies such as Waymo, Tesla, and Pony AI, while also benefiting from commercial Physical AI tools provided by firms like NVIDIA. They predict the global Robotaxi market will reach $415 billion by 2035, with the autonomous trucking market reaching an even higher $560 billion, resulting in combined gross profits exceeding $280 billion

- Goldman Sachs analysts highlight that autonomous driving will significantly contribute to AI investment returns, with expectations for rapid commercialization.  
- The report forecasts the U.S. robotaxi market will grow from $7 billion in 2030 to $19 billion by 2035, driven by advances from companies like Waymo and Tesla.  
- Additionally, the autonomous truck market is projected to exceed $135 billion in gross profits by 2035, indicating a potential disruption of $440 billion in existing markets.

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AI Spending a Bottomless Pit? Goldman Sachs Outlines Path to Break Even: Autonomous Driving to Ignite Trillion-Dollar Profit Pool