--- title: "Wall Street Is Slashing Stock Market Targets Over the Iran War. They've Been Wrong 5 of the Past 6 Years." type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283242548.md" description: "In response to the Iran war, major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have reduced their S&P 500 price targets, despite historically underestimating market performance in five of the last six years. The firms have cited elevated oil prices and low consumer confidence as reasons for their cautious outlook. However, history suggests that investors who remain patient typically see positive returns. The article emphasizes the unpredictability of market forecasts and advises caution when interpreting Wall Street predictions." datetime: "2026-04-19T05:40:27.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283242548.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283242548.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283242548.md) --- # Wall Street Is Slashing Stock Market Targets Over the Iran War. They've Been Wrong 5 of the Past 6 Years. ## Key Points - In the wake of the Iran war, major Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo slashed their S&P 500 price targets -- but history suggests these forecasts often miss the mark. - In five of the past six years, Wall Street significantly underestimated where the market finished, missing by as much as 28% to the upside. - While the risks to the global economy are real, investors who stick it out usually come out ahead -- and in the long run, they always do. - 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › While the market has reversed course in recent weeks, it remains to be seen where the **S&P 500** (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) will end up at year's end. Wall Street's perfomance has been mixed, but in the wake of the Iran war, much of the Street has been slashing its price targets. **JPMorgan Chase** cut its forecast, saying the conflict means a "more constrained" upside. **Wells Fargo** followed a few days later, trimming its target from 7,800 to 7,300, and several other firms have dialed back expectations as well. _**Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?** Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »_ ![An investor pressing the word invest. ](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTgyMS9pbnZlc3RpbmdfbWFya2V0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Image source: Getty Images. It makes sense, with oil prices elevated -- the effects of which are only beginning to be felt -- and consumer confidence hitting record lows, it's easy to believe the market will underperform this year. But history has a lesson for investors who put too much stock in Wall Street's targets. Let's look at how accurate these forecasts have actually been -- and what patterns emerge. ## Wall Street's forecasting track record isn't great Here's the track record: Year Consensus Target Actual Year-End Close Difference 2020 ~3,300 3,756 14% 2021 ~4,100 4,766 16% 2022 ~4,950 3,840 (22%) 2023 ~4,050 4,770 18% 2024 ~4,720 5,881 25% 2025 ~6,600 6,846 4% Data sources: macrotrends.net, Avantis Investors. The pattern is striking: In five of the past six years, Wall Street significantly underestimated where the market actually finished -- in some cases by nearly 30%. The lone exception was 2022, when a bear market driven by a rapid rise in interest rates caught nearly everyone off guard. So in general, Wall Street tends to miss on the low side. That's worth remembering when you see another downward revision. ## Why 2026 could be different The 2026 setup has echoes of April 2025, when the market reacted to massive tariffs from the Trump administration. These were significantly scaled back relatively quickly, and the market dip was short-lived. Of course, there's plenty of reason to believe this might be different. While there has been diplomatic progress and a deal might soon be reached, the flow of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz could be affected for months to come, if not longer. Critical infrastructure throughout the area has already been destroyed, and shipping rates are likely to be elevated for some time, even if a peace deal is reached. Operators will be wary of a re-escalation. If a deal isn't reached and the waterway remains shut for months, a global recession would be hard to avoid. At the end of the day, you have to take any prediction with a heavy grain of salt, even if it is from Wall Street. And while the risks to the global economy are very real, investors who stick it out usually come out ahead in the short term. In the long run, they always do. For those of us who lack a crystal ball, time in the market will always beat timing the market. ## Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The _Motley Fool Stock Advisor_ analyst team just identified what they believe are the **10 best stocks** for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when **Netflix** made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, **you’d have $524,786**!\* Or when **Nvidia** made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, **you’d have $1,236,406**!\* Now, it’s worth noting _Stock Advisor’s_ total average return is 994% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 199% for the S&P 500. **Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with _Stock Advisor_, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.** See the 10 stocks » _\*Stock Advisor returns as of April 19, 2026._ _Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy._ The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. ### Related Stocks - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [WFC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [VFH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [JPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPX.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md) - [NFLX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NFLX.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [WFC-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC-D.US.md) - [WFC-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC-L.US.md) - [WFC-Y.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC-Y.US.md) - [WFC-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC-C.US.md) - [WFC-Z.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC-Z.US.md) - [WFC-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WFC-A.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Wells Fargo Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284331304.md) - [What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for JPMorgan Chase Stock?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284762788.md) - [TACO Trade Joke No More? 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