Memory Crisis Deepens: DRAM Manufacturers Expect to Meet Only 60% of Demand by 2027, Prolonged Shortage Likely Inevitable

The explosive growth in AI computing power demands is pushing the global DRAM market toward a protracted supply crisis.

Latest industry data shows that even with major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Tech expanding production at full capacity, global DRAM supply will still meet only about 60% of market demand by the end of 2027. The situation of memory shortages and high prices is expected to continue until the end of 2028 or even longer.

Data from research firm Counterpoint indicates that DRAM annual capacity must grow at a rate of 12% between 2026 and 2027 to alleviate the shortage, while the current actual growth rate is only about 7.5%, creating a startling gap. This discrepancy means that supply-demand imbalances will continue to intensify over the coming years.

The market has responded first. In the first quarter of 2026, memory prices surged 110% year-over-year, forcing PC manufacturers into panic purchasing mode. Data center customers have further squeezed available inventory for consumer-facing markets by pre-ordering their annual supply quotas in advance, placing the smartphone and PC markets under the most direct pressure.

Supply-Demand Gap Hard to Bridge: Expansion Pace Lags Far Behind Demand

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Tech are rushing to build new production lines and factories, but the capacity release cycle dictates that these investments will not yield results in the short term.

Counterpoint's calculations clearly point out a significant gap between the current 7.5% annual capacity growth rate and the 12% needed to alleviate the shortage. Combined with the inherent construction cycles of new factories, this gap makes any substantive rebalancing of supply and demand unlikely before 2027.

AI Devours Capacity: PC and Smartphone Markets Suffer Most

AI infrastructure construction is now dominating the allocation of global DRAM capacity. Data center operators are placing massive orders for AI-specific memory such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), effectively locking up the annual output of major manufacturers and leaving very limited shares for the consumer electronics market.

Meanwhile, major manufacturers like Samsung have sequentially halted production of traditional memory specifications such as DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, concentrating resources on higher-margin product lines like HBM and SOCAMM2. Micron Tech's consumer-facing Crucial brand has also announced its exit, further narrowing supply channels for PC users and system integrators.

For PC manufacturers, Counterpoint's forecast offers little optimism—memory prices are expected to continue climbing, and this pressure is unlikely to dissipate in the foreseeable future.