--- title: "CITIC Construction Investment: The switch status of the Strait of Hormuz is fluctuating, and non-ferrous metals are more sensitive to navigation pricing" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283270462.md" description: "CITIC Construction Investment released a research report indicating that the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz is fluctuating, leading to increased market volatility. Although the US-Iran conflict is tending to ease, market risk appetite has improved, benefiting dollar-denominated metals such as gold and copper from falling oil prices and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, and demand is expected to improve. Gold prices have risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts, and copper prices have returned to pre-war levels" datetime: "2026-04-19T23:58:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283270462.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283270462.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283270462.md) --- # CITIC Construction Investment: The switch status of the Strait of Hormuz is fluctuating, and non-ferrous metals are more sensitive to navigation pricing According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Construction Investment released a research report stating that on April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation for commercial vessels. Although the outline of the US-Iran agreement remains uncertain, market risk appetite has significantly increased, leading to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, a weakening dollar, rising stock markets, and rebounds in metals such as gold and copper, while electrolytic aluminum has fallen. However, within 24 hours, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again, exacerbating market volatility. Given that the probability of easing US-Iran conflict is greater than that of war escalation, major asset pricing will be more sensitive to navigation, especially for dollar-denominated metals that benefit from renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to falling oil prices. ## The main points from CITIC Construction Investment are as follows: **Industrial Metals**: This week, the prices of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and tin changed by 3.8%, 1.0%, 1.7%, 2.8%, and 4.0%, respectively. The prices of industrial metals are determined by both "financial attributes" and "commodity attributes." From a financial perspective, the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle; from a commodity perspective, global copper and aluminum inventories are at relatively low levels, and China's economic recovery is expected. Coupled with the boost from the new energy industry, demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve. **The on-off status of the Strait of Hormuz makes non-ferrous metals more sensitive to navigation pricing.** **(1) Gold: Falling oil prices and rising interest rate cut expectations push gold prices up.** On Friday, COMEX gold continued its upward trend, reaching a one-month high, mainly benefiting from the Iranian Foreign Minister's remarks about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, which led to a significant drop in crude oil prices and increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year. The Federal Reserve observation tool shows that traders expect about a 50% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year, a significant reversal from the previous 20%. The weakening dollar has allowed gold to steadily recover. In the medium to long term, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, questioning of US hegemony, and continuous central bank gold purchases, gold remains a high-quality asset backed by sovereign credit, laying the foundation for an upward trend in gold prices. **(2) Copper: Copper prices have recovered all losses since the war began.** The US-Iran conflict has triggered recession expectations, while global copper inventories have accumulated to a high of 1.45 million tons, causing copper prices to fall below the 100,000 yuan mark. However, copper prices around 95,000 yuan have continuously stimulated downstream replenishment enthusiasm, with the latest domestic spot inventory at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 240,000 tons from a month ago, which is rare and highlights the drying up of downstream inventories and a high willingness to take delivery. The low copper prices have stimulated downstream replenishment, demonstrating consumption resilience. Coupled with the recovery of risk appetite, copper prices have recovered all losses since the war and have once again surpassed the 100,000 yuan mark. As a resource commodity, the logic of limited supply remains unchanged. With the oil crisis hitting again, new energy is expected to accelerate the replacement of fossil energy, creating more demand than anticipated. Copper prices have recovered all losses since the war, while equity targets have not yet filled the gap, making them worth allocating. **(3) Aluminum: Even if the Strait opens, the fact of supply shortages remains unchanged.** Iran announced the resumption of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing LME aluminum prices to drop, but more concerns about production recovery should not be priced in prematurely. Since March, production capacity shutdowns have included 265,000 tons in Qatar due to power shortages, a reduction of 300,000 tons by Bahrain Aluminum due to insufficient alumina, and 1.6 million tons at Al Taweelah under Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) due to "uncontrolled shutdowns," as well as 520,000 tons in Mozambique due to expired power contracts Aviation can supply materials to the aluminum plants in Bahrain and Qatar, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons potentially returning in three months. However, the resumption of EGA's equipment downtime will take no less than 12 months. The volume loss caused by the war is real and should be measured by price, so there is no need to worry too much about the depth of price corrections, especially under the hedge of warming sentiment. **Risk Warning** 1. A significant global economic recession leading to a cliff-like decline in consumption. The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% in January this year to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions. The World Bank stated that global economic growth is slowing due to trade barriers and an uncertain global policy environment. Compared to six months ago when the economy seemed to be on track for a "soft landing," the global economy is once again in turmoil. If the course is not corrected quickly, living standards may be severely impacted. Global economic data has already shown a downward trend, and if a deep recession occurs, the impact on the consumption of non-ferrous metals will be enormous. 2. Out-of-control inflation in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy beyond expectations, and a strong dollar suppressing equity asset prices. The U.S. is unable to effectively control inflation, leading to continuous interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve has implemented significant consecutive rate increases, but services, especially rents and wages, remain sticky, constraining the decline in inflation. If the Federal Reserve maintains high-intensity rate hikes, it will be unfavorable for non-ferrous metals priced in dollars. 3. Domestic new energy sector consumption growth is below expectations, and the real estate sector continues to be sluggish. Although policies on the real estate sales side have been relaxed to varying degrees, residents' willingness to purchase remains insufficient, and the progress in resolving the debt risks of real estate companies is not smooth. If sales do not improve, the completion of real estate projects may face a risk of stalling, which would be detrimental to the consumption of certain non-ferrous metals in the domestic market ### Related Stocks - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [600362.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600362.CN.md) - [601899.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601899.CN.md) - [KGC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KGC.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [GLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLTR.US.md) - [NUGT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NUGT.US.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [XME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XME.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [SGDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [GDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDX.US.md) - [ICOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ICOP.US.md) - [GOEX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [82824.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82824.HK.md) - [06066.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06066.HK.md) - [601066.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601066.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Thunder Gold Purchases Freehold Patent in Shebandowan Greenstone Belt, Ontario | TGOLF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282991001.md) - [METALS-Copper set for fourth weekly gain on rising hopes of US-Iran deal](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283081437.md) - [Best Rated Gold IRA Companies USA Rankings Announced for 2026 - Top Gold IRA Companies Compared](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282734877.md) - [Citi expects copper at $13,000 a metric ton near term on easing geopolitical risks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282841828.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold climbs as dollar weakens, drop in oil prices tempers inflation fears](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282607884.md)