Last Friday, markets were celebrating the dawn of a ceasefire, but within the weekend's 72 hours, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse—the Strait of Hormuz closed again, the US detained Iranian vessels, Trump issued stern threats, and market optimism was quickly dashed.
On April 20, during the Asian trading session on Monday morning, Brent crude rose as high as 7.9% to $97.50 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed over 7% to approximately $90 per barrel. At the same time, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.7%, Dow Jones futures dropped about 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined roughly 0.9%. European natural gas futures briefly surged over 11%, erasing all losses from Friday. Bitcoin fell about 0.9% to around $74,000, wiping out Friday's gains. The dollar strengthened, with risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and South African rand leading the declines.
Martin Hennecke, Head of Asia and Middle East Investment Consulting at St. James's Place, stated: &#34;Investors seem to have celebrated too early,&#34; pointing out that the weekend developments &#34;could lead to some of the recent market gains being given back in the short term.&#34;
Bloomberg Markets Live strategist Mark Cranfield noted: &#34;The situation in the Middle East oscillating between possible peace talks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will force Asian stock traders back into a defensive posture. However, there is pent-up demand for tech stocks; once there is substantive evidence of a resumption of US-Iran peace negotiations, this demand will be released again.&#34;
<h2>Oil Prices: The Gap Between Market Pricing and Physical Reality</h2>
Last Friday, as expectations for a ceasefire intensified, WTI crude plummeted 11.5% in a single day, and Brent crude fell 9%, both hitting five-week lows. But the weekend saw a reversal of fortunes, with oil prices quickly recovering lost ground.
At the Monday open, Brent crude reached a high of 7.9% to $97.50 per barrel, WTI rose over 7% to around $90 per barrel, and European natural gas futures surged more than 11% at one point.
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Bloomberg analysis points out that oil prices represent the area with the largest gap between market pricing and physical reality. Friday's plunge had fully priced in &#34;normalization,&#34; yet shipping routes remain blocked, tanker freight rates remain high, and inventories continue to be drawn down—analysts believe these conditions will take weeks to digest.
Since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, not a single shipment of LNG has successfully exited the Persian Gulf region so far, effectively cutting off about 20% of global LNG supply.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on CNN Sunday that US gasoline prices may remain at $3 or more per gallon until next year, contradicting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's earlier prediction that relief would come before summer. According to data from the American Automobile Association, the national average price for regular gasoline last week was $4.10 per gallon, compared to less than $3 per gallon before the outbreak of war (prior to February 28).
<h2>Last Week's Gains Face Pressure to Be Given Back</h2>
Last week, US stocks experienced a strong rebound. The S&amp;P 500 index posted gains exceeding 3% for three consecutive weeks, closing at a record high last Friday with a weekly gain of 4.5%; the Nasdaq index rose 6.8% last week, recording its longest streak of 13 consecutive gains since 1992; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.2% last week, marking its best single-week performance since June.
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On Monday, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.7%, Dow Jones futures dropped about 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined roughly 0.9%; European equity futures also generally fell.
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Bitcoin fell to approximately $74,000.
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This rally was largely built on ceasefire expectations. Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a weekend report: &#34;The issue is that this is a price trend written in real-time by geopolitics, not built on any stable foundation. The seemingly smooth track of last weekend could evolve into a negative feedback loop at Monday's open—prices chase headlines, and headlines chase prices.&#34;
Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, stated: &#34;We need to truly see ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, markets will remain volatile.&#34;
Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., warned of risks in the bond market: &#34;The recovery in the US Treasury market is far weaker than in equities. If yields rise again, it will put pressure on other risk assets.&#34;
<h2>Within 72 Hours: Open, Shooting, Closed Again</h2>
This chaos began last Friday. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on the X platform that the Strait of Hormuz was open, and Trump immediately celebrated that this critical waterway was now &#34;fully open.&#34; Upon this news, an oil tanker stranded in the Persian Gulf immediately set sail toward the strait.
However, according to media reports citing informed shipowners, the vessel was hailed by the Iranian Navy about 4 miles off the Iranian coast and ordered to turn back.
On Saturday morning, another batch of ships attempted passage but were similarly rejected by Iranian authorities. By Saturday noon, several ships tried again after receiving &#34;safe passage&#34; signals from both Iranian and Indian authorities—one Indian-flagged tanker, approaching Iran's Larak Island, was fired upon by armed personnel on small boats carrying firearms and rocket launchers.
Following the shooting incident, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy broadcast an announcement declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed again, warning that any vessel approaching the strait &#34;will be considered cooperating with the enemy, and non-compliant vessels will be targeted.&#34;
According to Bloomberg Ship Tracking data, at least 135 million barrels of crude and refined products are currently stranded on tankers in the Persian Gulf. On Sunday, virtually no vessel traffic was observed in the Strait of Hormuz.
<h2>Trump Issues Stern Statements Amid Doubts Over Negotiations</h2>
On Sunday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social with stern wording:
&#34;I hope they accept it, because if they don't, the US will destroy every power plant and every bridge in Iran. Don't expect me to be polite anymore!&#34;
Trump also announced that the US had detained an Iranian cargo ship attempting to break through the blockade in the Gulf of Oman. Video released by the US Central Judicial Department showed the missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepting the vessel.
Meanwhile, Trump stated that the US delegation would return to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Monday to hold new negotiations on extending the ceasefire agreement—which expires this week. However, Iranian state television subsequently indicated that Tehran's negotiators currently have no plans to attend.
Former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Bloomberg Television bluntly: &#34;Reaching an agreement within the next 48 to 72 hours will be very difficult. There are major differences between the two sides on core issues such as nuclear enrichment, the return of nuclear fuel, and the future status of the Strait of Hormuz; I can hardly see any room for consensus.&#34;
Iranian officials stated that as long as the US maintains its maritime blockade of Iranian ports, the strait will remain closed.
<h2>Other Key Focus Points This Week</h2>
Beyond geopolitics, there are several important events for markets to watch this week.
Regarding earnings season, Tesla, Intel, IBM, Boeing, and United Airlines are all scheduled to release their first-quarter results this week.
Concerning the Federal Reserve, the Senate Banking Committee will hold its first hearing on Tuesday to review the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh is widely expected to support rate cuts.
Elias Haddad, Global Markets Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman &amp; Co., stated in a client report that although short-term pressures persist, the worst may already be behind us: &#34;The US's 'all-or-nothing' stance on the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to accelerate the reopening of this critical waterway, as shared economic pain will increase the motivation for all parties to seek diplomatic solutions.&#34; He expects the US Dollar Index to remain in the range of 96 to 100 over the coming months.

The US-Iran ceasefire expires tomorrow night, with three major disagreements remaining unresolved: nuclear issue, passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations. The US blockade order has taken effect, closing the Strait of Hormuz again. US media speculated that an "agreement in principle" had been reached to extend the ceasefire, but both US and Iranian officials denied this. With the second round of negotiations approaching, what are your thoughts?

The US-Iran ceasefire expires tomorrow night, with three major disagreements remaining unresolved: nuclear issue, passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations. The US blockade order has taken effect, closing the Strait of Hormuz again. US media speculated that an "agreement in principle" had been reached to extend the ceasefire, but both US and Iranian officials denied this. With the second round of negotiations approaching, what are your thoughts?

Countdown to Iran-US ceasefire: Will truce hold on 21st?

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Within a 72-hour window over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz shifted from 'fully open' to closed again; the US detained an Iranian cargo ship, Trump threatened to destroy Iran's infrastructure, while Tehran refused to confirm attendance at new negotiations. On Monday, Brent crude surged as high as 7.9%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%. US stocks that recently hit record highs face profit-taking pressure, and markets have returned to a state of high uncertainty

- Last Friday's market optimism collapsed as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again and tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, leading to significant oil price spikes.  
- Brent crude increased 7.9% to $97.50 per barrel, while U.S. stock futures dropped, reflecting investor concerns over geopolitical instability.  
- The escalation has disrupted shipping routes and kept a significant portion of LNG supply from exiting the Gulf, as the market grapples with the reality versus speculative pricing.

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Weekend US-Iran Maneuvers Trigger 7% Oil Surge and Decline in US Stock Futures at Monday Open