I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.The S&P 500 hit a record high, with Wall Street broadly raising earnings forecasts. Morgan Stanley noted that corporate revenue growth outpaced cost growth, providing effective support for profits through operating leverage. However, Goldman Sachs warned that this earnings revision and the market rally are highly concentrated in a few stocks, with market breadth falling to multi-decade lows
The S&P 500 index has reached a historic high, but structural divergence behind earnings revisions has drawn attention.
Strategists at major Wall Street banks generally hold an optimistic view on the US corporate earnings outlook, with a strong start to the first-quarter earnings season and a resurgence in AI investment enthusiasm boosting market confidence.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson stated, "Despite geopolitical risks, the momentum of earnings recovery remains intact, with positive operating leverage being the core driver."
However, Goldman Sachs pointed out, this wave of earnings revisions and the stock market rally are highly concentrated in a few individual stocks, with market breadth dropping to its lowest level in decades.
Currently, bank stocks have taken the lead with impressive results. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs all recorded record stock trading revenues. According to Bloomberg data, approximately 81% of large-cap stocks have reported earnings per share exceeding analyst expectations.
Strong Start to Earnings Season, Clear Logic for Earnings Recovery
Morgan Stanley's Wilson noted that S&P 500 earnings per share growth shows a continuous improvement trend, with revenue growth outpacing cost growth, and positive operating leverage effects providing effective support for corporate profits.
JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka stated that earnings forecasts for major regions have all been upgraded. "Although escalating geopolitical tensions and persistently high oil prices could pressure earnings, Brent crude remaining at $100 is still consistent with upside potential for earnings."
By sector, JPMorgan is bullish on semiconductors, mining, and industrial sectors, while the discretionary consumer sector may face pressure.
Rally Highly Concentrated, Few Stocks Drive Earnings Revisions
Goldman Sachs' Ben Snider noted that although consensus expectations for S&P 500 earnings per share for this year and next were raised by approximately 4% compared to January, the energy and information technology sectors contributed almost entirely to the increase.
More strikingly, just two companies, Micron Technology and ExxonMobil, accounted for over 60% of the upward revision in consensus expectations for S&P 500 earnings per share for 2026 since the conflict began.
"The vast majority of recent upward revisions to S&P 500 earnings expectations were driven by only a handful of individual stocks," Snider said.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs' preferred market breadth indicator has fallen to near multi-decade lows, second only to the dot-com bubble era and mid-2023 levels, indicating that this rally and earnings revision lack a broad base.
Key Test: Can Earnings Revisions Spread to a Broader Range?
The core issue facing the current market is whether, as the first-quarter earnings season peaks, earnings revisions and stock price gains can spread from a few individual stocks to a wider range of constituents.
Progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for cyclical sectors, which are more closely linked to economic prosperity.
Goldman Sachs believes the current stock market is slightly tilted to the upside. Downside risks come from weakening consumer demand and rising input costs due to war, while upside factors include continued AI investment and productivity improvements.