---
title: "Breakfast | Uncertain Prospects for US-Iran Negotiations, Nasdaq Ends 13-Day Rally"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283410385.md"
description: "Uncertain prospects for US-Iran negotiations and worrying delays in ceasefire extensions caused major US indices to retreat. The Nasdaq ended its 13-day rally, while both it and the S&P fell from record highs; small-cap indices rose for six consecutive days to reach new peaks. The chip index surged for 14 days, marking its longest streak in over a decade. Following reports of talks with Google on AI chip development, Marvell Technology rose nearly 6%, while Broadcom fell almost 2%"
datetime: "2026-04-20T23:18:21.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283410385.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283410385.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283410385.md)
---

# Breakfast | Uncertain Prospects for US-Iran Negotiations, Nasdaq Ends 13-Day Rally

## Market Overview

Uncertain prospects for US-Iran negotiations and worrying delays in ceasefire extensions caused major US indices to retreat. The Nasdaq ended its 13-day rally, while both it and the S&P fell from record highs; small-cap indices rose for six consecutive days to reach new peaks. The chip index surged for 14 days, marking its longest streak in over a decade. Following reports of talks with Google on AI chip development, Marvell Technology rose nearly 6%, while Broadcom fell almost 2%; passage through the Strait of Hormuz has once again become tense, dragging down airline and cruise stocks while fertilizer stocks rebounded. Norwegian Cruise Line fell nearly 3.5%, American Airlines dropped more than 4%, and Dow Chemical rose over 3%. Drone manufacturer Aevex closed up more than 20% on its second day of trading.

The downward momentum in US Treasury prices eased during the session, with yields briefly turning lower. The US Dollar Index failed to bounce back, falling intraday and unable to sustain its departure from the low seen a month and a half ago; offshore RMB broke above 6.82 intraday, rising over 100 points from its daily low; Bitcoin reclaimed $76,000 intraday, gaining nearly 4% from its daily low.

In commodities, crude oil staged a strong rebound after a sharp drop the previous day. WTI crude gained nearly 9% and Brent crude nearly 8% intraday, closing at least 6% higher—the largest gain in over two weeks. Gold and silver retreated, with gold futures falling nearly 3% and silver futures nearly 4% intraday, later recovering more than half of those losses.

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 0.8%, with commercial aerospace and optical fiber sectors surging collectively; Luxshare Precision hit the limit up, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.5%, AI applications rallied sharply, and Genesys Cloud soared 100%.

## Key News

> **China**
> 
> President of China spoke by phone with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.
> 
> Li Qiang: Strengthen energy technology innovation, accelerate the construction of a new energy system, and promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption models.
> 
> China's April LPR quotes released: 5-year-plus rate at 3.5%, 1-year rate at 3%, unchanged for eleven consecutive months.
> 
> Report: ByteDance's overseas business grew nearly 50% last year, TikTok overall GMV surged 70%, but the company's full-year net profit declined by more than 70%. ByteDance Vice President Li Liang stated that rumors of a 2025 profit decline are based on accounting standards data and significantly impacted by option costs.
> 
> Tianfu Communication reported Q1 revenue growth of 40.82% year-over-year and net profit growth of 45.79%, driven by sustained strong demand for high-speed optical devices fueled by AI.
> 
> **Overseas**
> 
> Trump stated that if no agreement is reached in the US-Iran negotiations on the 21st, extending the ceasefire will be "almost impossible"; no sanctions relief will be granted before an agreement is reached. Iran has not confirmed attendance; Iranian media said the decision not to participate in negotiations remains unchanged, and the Supreme Leader reiterated three basic positions, including war reparations and a new phase of management for the Strait of Hormuz. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated they do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. US media reported that Iranian representatives plan to travel to Pakistan to negotiate with the US.
> 
> Kuwait announced that exports of crude oil and refined products have encountered "force majeure," citing a chain reaction from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
> 
> Speech drafts from Wash's nomination hearing were leaked, promising strict independence for monetary policy, stating that the Federal Reserve's independence depends primarily on itself.
> 
> Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO on September 1 to become Executive Chairman; John Ternus, head of hardware, will succeed him as CEO.
> 
> Japan's major earthquake was upgraded to magnitude 7.7, with significant tremors felt in Tokyo. Multiple nuclear power plants near the epicenter may affect several semiconductor companies. Media urged residents to evacuate immediately, recalling the 2011 Great Earthquake.

## Market Close

US and European Equities: S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 7,109.14 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.01% to 49,442.56 points. Nasdaq Composite fell 0.26% to 24,404.393 points. Europe STOXX 600 Index fell 0.82% to 621.46 points.

A-Shares: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76% to 4,082.13 points. Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.55% to 14,966.75 points. ChiNext Index fell 0.02% to 3,677.58 points.

Bonds: By the close of the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was approximately 4.25%, flat from last Friday; the 2-year Treasury yield was approximately 3.72%, rising about 1 basis point intraday.

Commodities: WTI May crude oil futures closed up 6.87% at $89.61 per barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed up 5.64% at $95.48 per barrel. COMEX June gold futures closed down 1.04% at $4,828.8 per ounce. COMEX May silver futures closed down 2.2% at $80.038 per ounce. LME zinc futures fell 1.1% to $3,408 per ton. LME copper futures fell about 0.5% to $13,275 per ton.

## In-Depth News

### **Global Headlines**

#### **China**

President of China speaks by phone with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman. According to Xinhua News Agency, regarding the current situation in the Middle East and Gulf region, the President emphasized that China advocates for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, supports all efforts conducive to restoring peace, and insists on resolving disputes through political and diplomatic channels. The Strait of Hormuz should remain open for normal passage, which serves the common interests of regional countries and the international community. China supports regional nations in building a shared home characterized by neighborliness, development, security, and cooperation, keeping their destiny in their own hands to promote long-term stability in the region.

Li Qiang: Strengthen energy technology innovation, accelerate the construction of a new energy system, and promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption models. Fully tap into the potential of renewable energy supply, maintain a unified national approach, and accelerate the construction of clean energy bases such as wind and solar power in the northwest, hydropower in the southwest, and offshore wind power in the east. Vigorously develop distributed photovoltaics and decentralized wind power, and develop biomass, geothermal, and marine energy according to local conditions to promote the integrated and fused development of new energy.

China's April LPR quotes released: 5-year-plus rate at 3.5%, 1-year rate at 3%, unchanged for eleven consecutive months! Experts believe that the central bank's attitude toward aggregate tools remains "flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts," while the expression regarding price-side intermediary targets is "to promote the operation of social comprehensive financing costs at a low level." It is evident that although the stance on aggregate easing is clear, the actual pace of easing depends flexibly on the central bank's assessment of the recovery of the real economy and the quality of credit expansion progress.

Report: ByteDance's overseas business grew nearly 50% last year, TikTok overall GMV surged 70%, but the company's full-year net profit declined by more than 70%. ByteDance's net profit for 2025 fell more than 70% year-on-year, mainly due to significantly increased investments in AI computing power procurement, model R&D, and infrastructure in the third and fourth quarters. Industry insiders stated that without geopolitical influences, ByteDance's overseas revenue might have already surpassed its domestic business.

-   ByteDance's Li Liang: Rumors of a 70% profit decline in 2025 are based on accounting standards data, significantly affected by option costs. According to Shanghai Securities News, responding to market rumors of a sharp profit decline in 2025, ByteDance Vice President Li Liang replied on April 20 that the reported 70% profit decline is data under international accounting standards, significantly impacted by changes in preferred stock and option costs, and does not reflect actual operational performance. Excluding these factors, the company's overall revenue and profit remained in growth, with operating profit margin declining only slightly.

Tianfu Communication Q1 revenue grew 40.82% year-over-year, net profit grew 45.79%, with AI-driven high-speed optical device demand remaining robust. Benefiting from the explosion in AI and data center demand, Tianfu Communication's first-quarter 2026 revenue reached 1.33 billion yuan, a 40.82% increase year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 492 million yuan, up 45.79% year-over-year. Currently, the plan to list in Hong Kong has been approved by the shareholders' meeting, marking a key step in capital operations.

Huawei debuts its first HarmonyOS AI glasses, Pura 90 series pricing matches previous generation; Yu Chengdong: Unit cost up 1,500 yuan, may raise prices if pressure mounts! On April 20, Huawei held a launch event for the Pura series and all-scenario new products, introducing the Pura 90 series and its first large foldable phone, the Pura X Max. The starting price of the Pura 90 series is 4,699 yuan, matching the previous generation; the Pura X Max starts at 10,999 yuan. Yu Chengdong admitted that unit costs have risen by about 1,500 yuan, creating significant pricing pressure, and price increases cannot be ruled out in the future.

#### **Overseas**

Trump states that if no agreement is reached in US-Iran negotiations on the 21st, extending the ceasefire will be "almost impossible"; Iran has not confirmed attendance, reports say Iranian reps plan to go to Pakistan to negotiate with the US.

-   Iranian media reported that Iran's decision not to participate in negotiations remains unchanged, and the ongoing US maritime blockade of Iran is a key obstacle to negotiations. Iran believes reports from US media regarding negotiation details may be a scam and is preparing for further military confrontation. However, US media reported that Iranian representatives are planning to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday to negotiate with the US, and if Vance goes, the Iranian Speaker is also prepared to attend.
-   Iran's Foreign Minister stated that the next course of action will be determined after a comprehensive assessment. The Supreme Leader reiterated three basic positions, including war reparations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated they do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. Reports indicate that Vance will postpone negotiations with Iran until Tuesday, contradicting Trump's statements.
-   Trump says no sanctions relief for Iran before an agreement is reached, arguing Israel "never convinced" him to go to war with Iran. According to senior Iranian officials, Pakistan is currently actively mediating, striving to urge the US to lift its maritime blockade on Iran to ensure Iran's participation in negotiations.
-   Trump: Willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if breakthrough progress is made. Trump stated that US Vice President Vance and the US delegation will arrive in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, within "a few hours."

UK Media: At least 26 ships linked to Iranian shipping break through US blockade. According to UK media, since the US implemented a blockade on Iranian ports on the 13th, the ships that broke through included 11 tankers carrying Iranian cargo. Since the US expanded the scope of its blockade on Iranian shipping materials last week, more than 10 ships have successfully crossed the blockade zone.

-   Huge change in Strait of Hormuz over the weekend! Over 20 ships passed on Saturday, zero on Sunday, and dozens turned back urgently. A stunning reversal unfolded in the Strait of Hormuz: over 20 ships passed on Saturday, reaching a seven-week high, including Saudi crude and Iranian oil; traffic plummeted on Sunday amid escalating US-Iran tensions. The US military forcibly detained the Iranian cargo ship "TOUSKA," prompting Iran to announce restrictions on shipping as retaliation. Data shows that within the past 36 hours, 35 ships turned back en route out of the strait.
-   Iran promises to ensure Russian ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz without obstruction. According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a phone call between the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran, Iran confirmed it will do its utmost to ensure Russian ships and cargo pass through the Strait of Hormuz without obstruction. Russia stated that diplomatic efforts must continue to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control and avoid the recurrence of armed confrontation.
-   Kuwait announces: Crude oil and refined product exports encounter "force majeure," Strait of Hormuz blockade triggers chain reaction. Due to the continued impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KPC) formally invoked force majeure clauses to suspend some crude oil and refined product shipments. Current Kuwaiti oil and gas production has fallen to its lowest level since the early 1990s. Insiders state that even if the conflict ends, full capacity recovery will take time.

Wash's nomination hearing speech drafts leaked, promising strict monetary policy independence, stating Fed independence depends primarily on itself (Full text attached).

-   Leaked opening remarks show Wash stating that the implementation of monetary policy must maintain strict independence, believing that politicians commenting on interest rates is not the true threat to the Fed; rather, the Fed's discipline and rigorous style maintain its independent status. He warned against the expansion of the Fed's functional boundaries, stating it should "stick to its duties." "Inflation is a choice," price stability is the Fed's "talisman," and the Fed must be responsible for this "without excuse or evasion."
-   Filing documents dated last Friday show that Wash also plans to divest a BlackRock fund tracking the Canadian stock market to comply with the ethical code for the Fed Chair position.
-   Wash's Tuesday Hearing: Can shifting from "Hawk" to "Dove" convince Congress? Independence and inflation expectations are focus. The core of this hearing, held Tuesday evening Beijing time, lies in the conflict between "interest rate cut commitments" and "defending Fed independence." His shift from hawk to dove has triggered politicized questions, compounded by Department of Justice investigations and Republican resistance, leaving the outcome uncertain. If he fails to clearly support independence, it could push up long-term rates and shake global central bank credibility.

Japan's major earthquake upgraded to 7.7, multiple nuclear plants near epicenter, media urges residents to evacuate immediately: Recall the 2011 Great Earthquake! A major earthquake struck off the northeast coast of Japan, with the magnitude upgraded from 7.4 to 7.7 and a focal depth of 20 kilometers. The Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami warning, predicting tsunamis up to 3 meters will reach Hokkaido and Iwate Prefecture. Media urged residents to "recall the 2011 Great Earthquake" and evacuate immediately. A 0.8-meter tsunami was observed at Kuji Port in Iwate Prefecture. The Tohoku Shinkansen has suspended operations, and safety status is being confirmed at multiple nuclear power plants and nuclear fuel processing facilities near the epicenter.

-   Major 7.5-magnitude earthquake strikes off northeast Japan, tremors felt in Tokyo, Meteorological Agency issues tsunami warning, a 0.8-meter tsunami was observed at Kuji Port in Iwate Prefecture, with tsunamis up to 3 meters expected to reach Hokkaido and Iwate Prefecture. The Tohoku Shinkansen has suspended operations, but air travel remains unaffected. Nuclear plant safety status is being verified. The Japanese government has established an emergency task force, and the Chinese consulate has issued an emergency alert.
-   Sudden 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Japan affects multiple semiconductor companies. The core area affected by this earthquake includes Iwate, Aomori, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures, which are core supply bases for global semiconductor materials, equipment, and memory chips. This region hosts global semiconductor leaders such as Kioxia, Tokyo Electron (TEL), Shin-Etsu Chemical, and SUMCO. The earthquake is expected to impact the memory chip and semiconductor equipment sectors in the short term, with limited impact on silicon wafers and chemicals.

Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO on September 1 to become Executive Chairman; "Hardware Chief" John Ternus succeeds as CEO.

Musk officially announces: Grok 5 is AGI! Two trillion-parameter monsters launched in May, OpenAI panics. With the release of two generations of trillion-parameter models (1T and 1.5T) in May, the AGI race among the four major AI giants has officially entered the final stage of close-quarters combat.

#### **Research Report Highlights**

Goldman Sachs Traders: US Stocks Are Prepared for a Pullback This Week. Goldman Sachs' US Trading Head warned that total leverage in US stocks stands at 310%, ranking in the 98th percentile over five years, while net leverage is only in the 21st percentile, hiding de-leveraging risks due to structural imbalances; CTA buying momentum is exhausting, and technical tailwinds are fading. The Strait of Hormuz closed again over the weekend, causing oil prices to surge nearly 8% in a single day today, leading US stock futures to fall—the timing for a pullback may have matured. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on emerging markets and fertilizers.

Hedge Fund CIO Predicts: After This US Stock Rally Tops Out, Rates Will Return to Zero, Fed Balance Sheet Could Expand Dramatically Again! As the Nasdaq continues to rise and set records, some professional funds are betting on a "generational bubble burst." Eric Peters expects the S&P 500 to rise another 35%-40% over the next 3-6 months, driven by AI infrastructure, energy exports, and foreign capital inflows, and has pre-positioned in gold and US Treasuries, betting on rates returning to zero or even negative values. However, he simultaneously warns that baby boomer selling and AI's impact on employment could trigger a severe bear market after the peak, with risks accumulating behind the current euphoria.

Token Calculation: The Cost War of the Next Decade. AI billing is moving beyond the singular "Token Era," with new units emerging such as search, caching, runtime, session duration, and pay-per-result, transforming bills from one-dimensional to multi-dimensional. Corporate budgets are forced to be reconstructed, shifting from "whose tokens are cheaper" to "who has the lower total cost under my workload." Tokens remain the underlying measurement granularity but can no longer independently explain AI commercialization. Value is shifting upward from the model layer, while costs are sinking.

IDC: Global Smartphone Shipments to Plunge 13% in 2026, Down 4.1% in Q1. IDC predicts that global smartphone shipments will fall 13% year-on-year in 2026, reducing by approximately 160 million units to about 1.1 billion, facing significant contraction pressure. Q1 data confirms this trend—shipments fell 4.1% year-on-year, with entry-level models hit hardest. Samsung and Apple, with their high-end product lines, have shown relative resilience, but demand prospects for the entire industry chain are becoming conservative.

Surge of 650%, Global Orders Explode, How Is This Optical Fiber Bull Run Different? Guosheng Securities believes the essence of this optical fiber surge is a global "supply-demand reconstruction," differing from the past in three ways: 1. Demand Reconstruction: AI data centers and military drones (high-frequency consumables) bring irreplaceable strong incremental demand. 2. Supply Lockdown: Upstream optical rod expansion requires 18-24 months, creating an absolute hard constraint on capacity. 3. Global Resonance: Shifting from single domestic drivers to global demand resonance. The supply-demand gap is driving a shift to a seller's market, where leading enterprises will see huge net profit elasticity.

#### **Domestic Companies**

Han's Laser Q1 Revenue Up 74%, Non-Recurring Net Profit Surges 468%, Contract Liabilities Grow 29%. Han's Laser's 2026 Q1 report shows revenue of 5.135 billion yuan, a 74.44% year-over-year increase; non-recurring net profit was 408 million yuan, a 467.81% year-over-year surge, indicating significantly improved profitability quality in its main business. Subsidiary Han's CNC went public in Hong Kong to raise 4.818 billion yuan, substantially increasing cash reserves and capital reserves. Operating cash flow faced pressure due to inventory procurement, but contract liabilities surged 29.28%, confirming high order prosperity. The company plans to invest $150 million to establish a Southeast Asia operations center.

Tianqi Lithium Q1 Performance "Explosive"! Net Profit Forecast Up 15-18 Times, Lithium Price Recovery and Investment Income Double Resonance. Tianqi Lithium's 2026 Q1 earnings forecast indicates net profit of 1.7 to 2 billion yuan, a 1530% to 1818% year-over-year increase; the non-recurring net profit 增幅 is even higher, ranging from 3502% to 4312%. The performance explosion is mainly due to revenue growth driven by lithium price recovery and increased investment income from improved expectations for its stake in SQM.

China Mobile Q1 Revenue Slightly Up, Net Profit Declines, Cloud Computing and Compute Rental Become New Growth Engines. China Mobile's first-quarter revenue was 266.5 billion yuan, a 1.0% year-over-year increase, showing relatively moderate growth; main business telecommunications revenue fell 1.1% year-over-year; net profit narrowed 4.2% year-over-year to 29.3 billion yuan, with profitability pressure continuing to appear. Incremental support for overall revenue came mainly from "other business income," which surged 12.7% year-over-year to 46.6 billion yuan, showing that emerging businesses like computing power and intelligent services are becoming important revenue supplements.

VeriSilicon: As of April 20, 2026, new orders signed totaled 4.516 billion yuan, with AI computing-related orders accounting for over 85%.

#### **Overseas Macro**

Worrying About Fiscal and Foreign Reserve Depletion, UAE "Asks Money" from US. According to reports, the Governor of the Central Bank of the UAE traveled to Washington to consult with the US Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve officials, proposing the establishment of currency swap lines to seek dollar support, and warned that if foreign reserves run dry, they would switch to non-dollar settlement for oil, thereby pressuring the US. Meanwhile, the UAE has embarked on self-rescue through private equity financing and swap lines with Bahrain.

Hassett: US Willing to Provide Financial Support to UAE, But May Not Be Necessary. Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett stated that if the Iran war worsens the UAE's economic outlook, the US is willing to provide assistance, but currently assesses it as unnecessary.

## Today's News Preview

US March Retail Sales.

US March Existing Home Sales.

US Senate holds hearing on Wash's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair.

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