--- title: "美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐涨 今晚市场迎来零售数据、特朗普、沃什三场考验" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283498711.md" description: "美股三大股指期货齐涨，市场关注今晚的零售数据、特朗普和沃什的提名听证会。道指期货涨 0.59%，标普 500 期货涨 0.39%，纳斯达克 100 期货涨 0.46%。同时，摩根大通将标普 500 年终目标上调至 7600 点，因 AI 与科技板块的盈利增长。沃什的提名面临阻碍，可能影响鲍威尔的任期。" datetime: "2026-04-21T12:24:17.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283498711.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283498711.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283498711.md) --- # 美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐涨 今晚市场迎来零售数据、特朗普、沃什三场考验 1. On April 21st (Tuesday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.59%, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and NASDAQ 100 futures up 0.46%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260421/1776773703699378.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose 0.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.14%, the French CAC 40 index fell 0.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.18%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260421/1776773791536122.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose 0.29%, priced at $87.67 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.04%, priced at $95.44 per barrel. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260421/1776773774621852.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **Tonight the market faces three tests: retail data, Trump, and Walsh.** At 20:30 tonight, the US March retail sales data will be released, marking the first hard data since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, highlighting its impact; at the same time, Trump will participate in a financial program, and the topic of Iran is likely unavoidable. Subsequently, at 22:00, Walsh's nomination hearing for Federal Reserve Chairman will be held, affecting whether he can smoothly take office in May. Three tests will unfold in succession. **Last-minute changes before the nomination hearing: Republican senator switches sides, Walsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman faces obstacles, Powell may be forced to stay.** Kevin Walsh, nominated by President Trump to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, will attend the nomination confirmation hearing held by the US Senate Banking Committee on April 21st local time. Currently, Walsh's confirmation for the Federal Reserve Chairman position is effectively blocked, not by opposition from Democrats, but by North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis, who is dissatisfied with Trump's treatment of Powell and the Federal Reserve, stating he will not support any nominee until the Justice Department's investigation into Powell is resolved. This unprecedented situation ironically suggests that Trump's continued attacks on Powell may actually prolong his tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman. **Just downgraded and then turned bullish! Morgan Stanley: AI profit engine restarts, S&P 500 expected to reach 7600 points by year-end.** On Tuesday, JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7600 points, citing profit growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and the technology sector. Notably, just a few weeks ago, the bank had downgraded its related forecasts, while the ceasefire situation between the US and Iran has also supported market sentiment. The adjusted target point implies that compared to Monday's closing price of 7109.14 points, the index still has about 6.9% upside potential Last month, this Wall Street investment bank lowered its target for the S&P 500 index from 7,500 points to 7,200 points. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase raised its annual earnings per share forecast for the index from $315 to $330, and increased its earnings per share target for 2027 from $355 to $385. **"Big Short" investor Michael Burry recently stated: There is currently no risk of a "peak" collapse in U.S. stocks, but the 42% inflated earnings of tech stocks should be heeded.** Known for successfully predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, "Big Short" investor Michael Burry has recently released significant market insights. On one hand, he stated that the current hot rally in U.S. stocks is not likely to immediately turn into a catastrophic collapse, but on the other hand, he provided detailed data proving that Wall Street has systematically overestimated the real earnings of tech giants by more than 40% over the past decade, and ordinary investors are paying the price for this. Burry published an in-depth study on his Substack account, concluding that the tech stock earnings that Wall Street has led investors to believe over the past decade are 42% higher than what actually exists, based on an analysis of thousands of annual reports from major tech companies in the NASDAQ 100 index over the past ten years. **Why are U.S. stocks no longer afraid of U.S.-Iran conflicts? Analysts reveal: Interest rate cut expectations serve as a stabilizing force.** Over the weekend, tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, but this did not have a significant negative impact on the financial markets. Although the VIX index surged 8% (currently at 18.87), and oil prices rose by 5%-6%, the U.S. stock market performed unusually steadily. Analysts believe that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports stability in the bond market, which is a key reason for the steadiness in the U.S. stock market. Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic stated that the weekend's U.S.-Iran situation did not provoke much negative reaction from the market, "This may be because the bond market did not show a significant response. Given that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable, inflation expectations are steady, and the market still tends to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2026, the bond market has not yet priced in the inflation scenario." ## Individual Stock News **Halliburton (HAL.US) Q1 earnings per share exceeded expectations, with Latin American revenue soaring 22% offsetting Middle East impact.** Halliburton's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter exceeded analysts' average expectations. Although the Middle East conflict led to a net income reduction of about 2-3 cents per share in its drilling and evaluation segment, strong performance in international markets offset some of the impact—Latin American revenue surged 22% year-on-year. As the world's largest provider of fracturing services, Halliburton's Middle East and Asia operations contributed 26% of revenue last year, while its peer SLB had an even higher revenue share of one-third from that region. Analysts pointed out that the company's international business growth effectively hedged against weakness in the North American market, resulting in "comprehensive outperformance" in earnings. In the long term, the demand for rebuilding energy infrastructure after the conflict ends may bring new growth opportunities for Halliburton and its competitors. **Engine maintenance demand offsets oil price impact, GE Aerospace (GE.US) Q1 performance exceeded expectations, and full-year profits are expected to reach the upper end of guidance.** Despite the Iranian conflict causing fuel costs to soar and supply chain disruptions, GE Aerospace delivered a quarterly report that exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for air travel At the same time, the company also expects its full-year profit to reach the high end of the expected range, but warned that high oil prices, fuel supply constraints, and global growth slowdown may bring short-term shocks. GE Aerospace's adjusted sales in the first quarter reached $11.6 billion, an increase of nearly 30% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of $10.7 billion. Operating profit grew by 18% year-on-year to $2.5 billion, higher than the average analyst expectation of $2.24 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.86, surpassing the analyst expectation of $1.60 and also better than the $1.49 from the same period last year. **Bidding farewell to the shadow of "collapse"! UnitedHealth (UNH.US) Q1 profit far exceeds expectations, raises full-year guidance to boost investor confidence.** UnitedHealth Group's first-quarter profit far exceeded Wall Street expectations and raised its full-year performance outlook. This indicates progress in rebuilding investor trust after the health giant experienced a performance collapse a year ago. The financial report shows that UnitedHealth's revenue in the first quarter reached $111.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, exceeding expectations by $2.06 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $7.23, higher than the highest analyst expectation in the survey. Key metrics measuring healthcare costs performed better than expected, and the company raised its full-year profit target per share by 50 cents. **The end of the Cook era, Wall Street focuses on Apple's (AAPL.US) AI blueprint! Can John Ternus recreate the "Golden Age of Apple"?** After leading Apple for 15 years, Tim Cook announced he will officially step down as CEO on September 1 this year, with hardware chief John Ternus taking over. What Cook leaves behind is a business empire of Apple with a market value approaching $4 trillion, boasting a large cash reserve and an unbreakable hardware ecosystem. Investors in the global stock market and Wall Street analysts have completely shifted their focus from the impressive financial data of Cook's management era to core growth themes: in the current wave of generative artificial intelligence and AI agents sweeping the globe, how will this tech giant, which heavily relies on profits from consumer electronics hardware, use its proud Apple super-ecosystem and consumer electronics hardware genes to solve an arithmetic problem about AI-driven new growth cycles. **Jensen Huang supports Adobe (ADBE.US) annual summit, but BNP Paribas pours cold water: Canva's offensive is intensifying.** Adobe's annual summit opened on Monday, with keynote speakers including NVIDIA (NVDA.US) CEO and founder Jensen Huang and Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen. However, BNP Paribas's equity research department stated on the eve of the summit that the content creation platform is facing increasing competitive pressure from Canva. Reportedly, the Adobe Summit is the core stage for Adobe to release new services, features, and product upgrades for creative and marketing software. The 2026 annual summit will officially open on April 20 in Las Vegas, with an online virtual event held simultaneously **SpaceX IPO documents show Musk plans to consolidate control with super voting rights, initiating a key three-day closed-door meeting with analysts for the IPO.** According to the summary of the prospectus, SpaceX plans to ensure absolute voting control for founder Elon Musk and a few internal core personnel through a dual-class share structure after the initial public offering (IPO) is completed, while public investors will only have limited voting rights and legal recourse. Meanwhile, the draft prospectus also reveals that Musk spent $1.4 billion last year to purchase SpaceX shares from current and former employees to increase his ownership stake. It is understood that SpaceX will hold a three-day closed-door meeting with analysts at its launch site in Texas and its large data center in Tennessee this week. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts Beijing time 20:30: U.S. March retail sales month-on-month. Beijing time 22:00: U.S. March seasonally adjusted new home sales annualized total. Next day Beijing time 04:30: U.S. API crude oil inventory change for the week ending April 17. Beijing time 22:00: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman. Next day Beijing time 02:30: Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks at the Brookings Institution. Next day Beijing time 02:30: NYMEX May crude oil futures are affected by the rollover, with the last on-exchange trading for April 22 at 2:30 and the last electronic trading at 5:00. Please pay attention to the expiration rollover announcement from the trading venue to control risks. In addition, some trading platforms have the expiration time for U.S. oil contracts typically one day earlier than the NYMEX official time, so please be cautious. Next day Beijing time 02:30: Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks at the Brookings Institution. ## Earnings Forecast Wednesday morning: Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) Wednesday pre-market: United Airlines (UAL.US), GE Vernova (GEV.US), AT&T (T.US), Boeing (BA.US), New Oriental (EDU.US) ### Related Stocks - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [IBUY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBUY.US.md) - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [RTH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RTH.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [QQQM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [QQEW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [ONLN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ONLN.US.md) - [QQWZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQWZ.US.md) - [EBIZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EBIZ.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [XRT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XRT.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Trump threatens to fire Powell if he doesn't leave Fed board; probe to continue](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282854511.md) - [Stock Index Futures Gain on Hopes of U.S.-Iran Talks, Retail Sales Data and Warsh Hearing on Tap](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283480085.md) - [Analysis-The Iran war has revealed Trump's pressure point: the economy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283212292.md) - [We're Precisely 1 Month Away From a Historic Shake-Up at the Federal Reserve -- and Wall Street Isn't Ready for It](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282808954.md) - [Odyssey Therapeutics Inc - Announces Initial Public Offering Of Common Stock - SEC Filing](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283193051.md)