--- title: "Last-Minute Analyst Warning: 'Sell' Tesla Stock; Predicts Big Earnings Miss and 95% Downside Risk in 2026" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283646141.md" description: "Analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research has issued a Sell rating on Tesla (TSLA) ahead of its first-quarter results for 2026, predicting a significant earnings miss and a price target of $24.86, indicating a potential 95% downside. He forecasts revenue of $20.44 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.29 per share, both below Wall Street estimates. Johnson also anticipates a full-year operating loss of $2.1 billion for 2026, significantly lower than the consensus profit expectations. He believes that current market expectations for Tesla are overly optimistic, with risks skewed to the downside." datetime: "2026-04-22T10:38:41.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283646141.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283646141.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283646141.md) --- # Last-Minute Analyst Warning: 'Sell' Tesla Stock; Predicts Big Earnings Miss and 95% Downside Risk in 2026 Tesla (TSLA) is set to report its first-quarter results for 2026 today, and the atmosphere on Wall Street is tense. While many investors are hoping for a rebound, analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research is sounding a loud alarm. The analyst maintained a Sell rating on the stock and a Street-low price target of just **$24.86**, implying about 95% downside from current levels. ### Claim 30% Off TipRanks Trade TSLA with leverage ## **Analyst Sees Results Falling Below Street Views** Johnson expects Tesla to miss Wall Street estimates across key metrics. While consensus calls for adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share on $22.08 billion in revenue, his model is lower on both fronts. The analyst forecasts revenue of $20.44 billion, about 7% below Street estimates. Gross margin is seen at 16.1%, also below expectations of 17.7%. Adjusted earnings are projected at $0.29 per share, compared with a consensus of $0.35. The analyst also expects weaker cash flow, with free cash flow estimated at negative $2.5 billion, worse than Wall Street's forecast. On a GAAP basis, he sees an operating loss and near-flat earnings, while the Street expects solid profit. Looking beyond the quarter, Johnson's view remains far below consensus. He estimates Tesla's full-year 2026 revenue at $83.4 billion, nearly 30% below Wall Street expectations of $119.5 billion. He also expects a full-year operating loss of $2.1 billion, compared with Street estimates of nearly $9 billion in profit. ## **Street-Low Price Target Reflects Cautious View** Johnson maintained his $24.86 price target by applying a 25x multiple to his 2027 earnings estimate. He noted that this multiple already reflects strong market optimism and does not include value from unproven areas like autonomy or robotics. Overall, the analyst believes expectations for Tesla remain too high heading into earnings, with risks tilted to the downside if results or outlook disappoint. ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [TSLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla Q1 Earnings Are Due April 22. Is TSLA Stock a Buy Before the Report?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283381378.md) - [Tesla's robotaxi timeline just got a little fuzzier](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283891890.md) - [Tesla Beats in Q1—But TSLA Stock’s Bull Case Still Needs Fuel](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283881537.md) - [SageGuard Financial Group LLC Invests $1.76 Million in Tesla, Inc. $TSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283640383.md) - [The Musk Premium Is Getting Tested—And Tesla's Earnings Call Showed Why](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283839859.md)