--- title: "Tesla is about to release its earnings report. What the market cares about is not the performance itself, but AI, Robotaxi, robots, and SpaceX" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283659403.md" description: "Tesla is about to release its first-quarter financial report, and the market's focus is no longer on the performance itself, but rather on future developments such as artificial intelligence, Robotaxi, robots, and SpaceX. Although the report is expected to show a 30% profit growth and a 15% revenue growth, investors are more concerned about Tesla's progress in the fields of AI and autonomous driving, as well as its collaboration with SpaceX" datetime: "2026-04-22T11:58:23.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283659403.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283659403.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283659403.md) --- # Tesla is about to release its earnings report. What the market cares about is not the performance itself, but AI, Robotaxi, robots, and SpaceX According to Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US), the global leader in autonomous driving and electric vehicles founded and led by Elon Musk, will experience a rare "performance feast" on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time (Thursday morning Beijing Time): a financial report that may significantly exceed expectations after many years. However, the core issue that Wall Street is focused on is that as investors seek more substantial evidence to prove that Elon Musk's ambitions in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots are sufficient to support the stock's extremely high valuation, the actual financial numbers are likely to be tacitly ignored by investors. For both long-term investors focused on Tesla's growth prospects and speculative forces seeking high-frequency short-term excess alpha returns, the strength or weakness of Tesla's first-quarter financial data has essentially become a secondary concern. They are closely monitoring Tesla's AI narrative, the penetration trend of Tesla's AI supercomputer-driven FSD (Full Self-Driving subscription software), the technological progress and production capacity realization of Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robots, the ambitions of the Terafab chip factory, as well as the SpaceX IPO and the grand narrative process of the "global space AI data center" led by SpaceX. Average forecast data from Wall Street analysts indicate that this North American electric vehicle manufacturer is expected to report a 30% year-over-year increase in adjusted profits and a 15% growth in total revenue when it announces its earnings after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. According to compiled data, this represents a strong reversal compared to Tesla's fourth-quarter performance, when adjusted profits fell by over 30% and revenue declined by about 3%. However, in many respects, these numbers are now only secondary factors, as the stock is currently trading and pricing primarily around Tesla's grand blueprint in artificial intelligence, FSD and Robotaxi based on Tesla's proprietary AI supercomputer technology, as well as the Optimus humanoid robot and the SpaceX-led space AI data center. It is these comprehensive factors related to cutting-edge technology that have pushed Tesla's stock price to a historic high in December. However, many questions surrounding these goals have led the stock to plummet 21% since reaching its record high, making it the worst-performing large tech stock among the "Magnificent Seven" (the seven major tech giants) and significantly lagging behind the S&P 500 index's 3.9% increase. ![1776858371(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260422/1776858373604813.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) As shown in the above chart, Tesla's stock price has significantly underperformed the broader U.S. stock market. Note: The data has been standardized based on percentage increases as of December 16, 2025; on that day, Tesla's stock price reached a historic high Currently, investors are undoubtedly focused on whether the expansion of Robotaxi can be scaled, the production/commercialization pace of the Optimus humanoid robot, the capital expenditure on AI computing power, and the financing path for the epic chip manufacturing project named "Terafab"; in addition, SpaceX and its IPO plans, as well as the blueprint for a space AI data center, have seemingly entered the center of discussion for Tesla's earnings report. The growth prospects of the commercial space sector led by SpaceX and the SpaceX IPO have become key marginal variables affecting Tesla's valuation premium and the "Musk premium." SpaceX is considering going public in June (around Musk's birthday), with a potential fundraising amount of up to $75 billion, which could surpass Saudi Aramco and become the largest IPO in history. The expected valuation could reach an astonishing $2 trillion, exceeding Tesla's current valuation of about $1.3 trillion. The "three-in-one" combination of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI could be the ultimate destiny of these three companies founded by Musk, creating a "Musk super business empire." With Musk recently frequently releasing positive developments regarding space AI data centers, large-scale energy storage, artificial intelligence, full self-driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and the revolutionary Optimus humanoid robot, this world billionaire seems to be stringing together a "super vertically integrated asset chain" that can be financed and clearly articulated, encompassing "commercial space systems + Starlink satellite communication + space AI computing systems/AI large models + energy/storage + electric vehicles + autonomous driving + robotics manufacturing," in order to amplify leverage in both the capital markets and the industrial sector. Unifying the hottest global investment themes or narratives such as "AI, communication, aerospace, energy, and robotics" into a "full-stack super cutting-edge technology infrastructure platform" will undoubtedly be of significant help in pricing and valuing the massive SpaceX IPO, elevating Tesla's valuation, and enhancing mid-term IPO roadshows and investor structures. ## Tesla's AI and Robotics, Space AI Valuation Bubble Faces Major Test "Investors are essentially paying for a ten-year vision," said Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, which has long held Tesla stock. "That said, patience comes at a cost." Tesla shareholders are indeed paying a high price for this stock. Based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, its expected price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 183 times, making it the third most expensive stock in the S&P 500, only behind Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. and Boeing. The expected price-to-earnings ratio of the "Big Seven" index compiled by Bloomberg is only about 27 times, and the reason for this relatively high level is that Tesla is extremely deviated from valuation and pricing norms compared to the other six tech giants. For example, the second highest expected price-to-earnings ratio in this group is Apple, at about 30 times, followed by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, at about 26 times. The AI chip superpower Nvidia is at a lower position, with a forward valuation multiple of only 22 times ![1776858387(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260422/1776858389866961.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Therefore, some investment professionals from Wall Street have stated that strong quarterly performance—even if it exceeds the continuously downgraded expectations of analysts—is unlikely to drive this overvalued stock to rise significantly. Instead, the management of Tesla, led by Musk, may need to achieve one of two substantial breakthroughs during the earnings call to lift the stock price out of its current slump: first, a significant breakthrough in the Robotaxi capacity expansion plan; second, a new and extremely bright story in the "Musk growth narrative" that redefines the company's goals and resets the clock on delivering results—based on all indications, this new story is likely to be associated with Tesla's massive energy storage system related to the construction of space AI data centers. "When a stock trades around numerous long-term stories, market patience does not disappear overnight," said Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer of Karobaar Capital, which holds Tesla stock primarily through derivatives. "The existing shareholder base is still holding firm, but without clearer growth results, it becomes increasingly difficult to attract new buyers." Wall Street has already shown its pessimistic sentiment. Analysts have downgraded first-quarter earnings expectations by more than 55% over the past 12 months and by about 30% over the past six months. In addition to a significant decline in electric vehicle sales, other key issues include that Tesla's autonomous vehicles and Optimus humanoid robots are still years, if not decades, away from widespread commercialization. For example, the Tesla earnings model established by Jefferies senior analyst Philippe Houchois shows that revenue data from the Robotaxi and humanoid robot businesses will not be included until 2027. Analyst Colin Langan from Wells Fargo stated that the only incremental progress of these projects may lead Tesla to continuously shift towards new growth opportunities. He gave the stock a rating equivalent to 'sell,' the most pessimistic rating. "What will the next 'dazzling new story' be? I have serious doubts about that," he questioned in a report on April 13. This is particularly tricky because Tesla is the only stock that allows investors to directly bet on Musk himself, and its appeal may soon be significantly diminished—as the billionaire's space exploration and commercial aerospace giant SpaceX plans to launch its initial public offering later this year. "The potential IPO of SpaceX could put heavy pressure on Tesla's stock price, as new retail funds that might have flowed into Tesla could instead shift towards SpaceX," said James Picariello, an analyst at BNP Paribas ## What Will Musk's Next "Super Magic Bullet" Be? There are signs that some significant changes or shifts in investor themes are brewing. Reportedly, after Musk called the highly anticipated $25,000 model plan "meaningless" 18 months ago, Tesla is now working on creating a cheaper all-electric vehicle. Last month, Musk announced his Terafab project, aimed at mass-producing chips for robots, artificial intelligence, and space data centers. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX continues. ![1776858423(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260422/1776858426444402.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) At the same time, internal market forces that could drive Tesla's stock price up are weakening. According to S3 Partners, short bets against the stock have significantly decreased, with short positions accounting for about 2% of the free-floating shares, the lowest level since February 2025. This limits the ability of unexpected positive news to trigger short covering (i.e., a short squeeze), which would drive the stock price up. As shown in the chart above, Tesla's stock price has lagged behind all other mega-cap tech peers. Matthew Unterman, Managing Director at S3, wrote in a report on April 10: "As short positions are no longer at high levels, the momentum for covering buy orders is weakening, thus limiting the market's ability to absorb downward capital flows." Technical indicators for Tesla's stock price are also not very encouraging. Its 50-day moving average recently fell below the long-term 200-day moving average, forming a bearish pattern known as a "death cross," which typically indicates that price momentum is leaning towards a decline. However, despite the short-term negative sentiment, John Kolovos, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, stated that Tesla investors can still hope for Musk to unveil a "super magic bullet" to lift the stock out of its current stagnation. "I still like it in the long term," Kolovos said, adding that investors "just need to let it go at its own pace." ## Musk Pulls the Future Tight, Tesla Stretches Reality Whether Tesla can advance grand narratives like AI, robotics, and even SpaceX's space AI data centers from long-term visions to execution phases that can be quickly validated by the capital markets may be the strongest driving force pushing Tesla's stock price towards a new bull market trajectory. What the market needs most is not a pretty profit statement, but a narrative reset that proves Tesla is moving from "AI options" to "milestone phased realizations"; without clearer execution evidence, even if short-term numbers look good, the stock price will struggle to escape the state of "strong earnings, weak valuation." Tesla today is no longer a stock primarily driven by quarterly profits but rather a "long-term tech asset" whose valuation is supported by visions of Robotaxi, Optimus humanoid robots, AI supercomputing systems, and space AI computing clusters The true response function of stock prices still depends on whether the management can provide a clearer timetable, capital expenditure path, and realization rhythm. ![1776858442(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260422/1776858471403832.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) From an industrial logic perspective, Tesla's long-term growth narrative is shifting from electric vehicle manufacturing to becoming a "super platform company at the level of physical AI." Once Tesla's expected growth engines transform into Robotaxi, Optimus, vehicle-side reasoning, robotic reasoning, and the computational power chain for xAI/SpaceX's space training and deployment, the actual infrastructure bottlenecks will no longer primarily be batteries and vehicle components, but rather high-end logic chips, 2.5D/3D/3.5D advanced packaging, data center storage chips, large solar and energy storage systems, and core supply chain security under geopolitical war situations. This is also why the world's richest man recently announced his ambition to enter the high-end semiconductor manufacturing field, calling it "the most epic chip manufacturing project in history so far," named "Terafab." Musk seems to be attempting to turn the "chip shortage" into an extraordinary industrial gamble that rewrites the semiconductor supply landscape. Musk is not merely looking to produce higher-performance chips; he aims to rewrite the supply-demand landscape of computational power in the era of AI, robotics, and space data centers through an extraordinary vertical integration. However, the more grandiose the cross-era vision, the more it exposes the harsh reality of the global shortage of advanced semiconductor capacity and the extremely high manufacturing thresholds. As the richest person in the world to date, Musk has previously accomplished what others deemed impossible—creating a commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business through SpaceX, bringing electric vehicles into the mainstream market through the global electric vehicle leader Tesla Inc., and providing internet connectivity infrastructure services from space through Starlink. However, some doubt whether Musk can truly, or even intends to, realize his "most epic" chip-making initiative outlined in Austin and whether he can achieve his envisioned "super blueprint for artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and space AI data centers." ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [09366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [07766.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [07366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [WBD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WBD.US.md) - [BA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BA.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [BOE.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BOE.UK.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla Q1 Earnings Are Due April 22. Is TSLA Stock a Buy Before the Report?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283381378.md) - [Tesla stock set to finally break losing streak just in time for earnings](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283126046.md) - [Tesla Earnings, Hormuz and Other Key Things to Watch this Week](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283260603.md) - [Benchmark Financial LLC Takes Position in Tesla, Inc. $TSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283456674.md) - [Consolidated Portfolio Review Corp Trims Stake in Tesla, Inc. $TSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282962297.md)