--- title: "Why Tesla Stock (TSLA) Slipped Today and Why J.P. Morgan Sees a 60% Crash" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283735413.md" description: "Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares fell about 1% after-hours following its Q1 earnings report, with concerns over increased spending and delayed growth drivers like robotaxis. Despite a 15.8% year-over-year revenue increase to $22.39 billion, vehicle deliveries missed forecasts. J.P. Morgan's Ryan Brinkman warns of a potential 60% downside to a $145 price target by December 2026, citing a disconnect between stock valuation and financial fundamentals. The broader consensus among analysts is a Hold rating, with an average price target of $413.89, suggesting a 7% upside from current levels." datetime: "2026-04-22T23:13:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283735413.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283735413.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283735413.md) --- # Why Tesla Stock (TSLA) Slipped Today and Why J.P. Morgan Sees a 60% Crash **Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)** shares slipped about 1% in after-hours trading Wednesday following the company's first-quarter earnings report, as investors reacted to higher expected spending, ongoing margin pressure, and a longer timeline for key growth drivers like robotaxis. ### Claim 30% Off TipRanks Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade TSLA Management indicated that rising capital expenditures across AI infrastructure, autonomy, and robotics will weigh on near-term profitability, while comments suggesting that robotaxi revenue remains several years away added to the cautious tone. Looking at the numbers, Tesla reported first-quarter revenue of $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year-over-year and ahead of expectations by about $190 million, while non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.41 beat estimates by $0.06. Gross margin came in at 21.1%, improving from 20.1% in the prior quarter, while capital expenditures reached $2.49 billion, slightly above the $2.39 billion reported in Q4. Free cash flow totaled $1.44 billion, also edging above the $1.42 billion generated in the previous quarter. Still, the underlying picture was less convincing, as vehicle deliveries of about 358,000 units fell short of forecasts, while production exceeded deliveries by more than 50,000 vehicles. Against this backdrop, J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman argues that Tesla's valuation remains difficult to reconcile with the direction of its fundamentals. The analyst points to a broad deterioration in consensus expectations across key financial metrics, while the stock has moved higher, creating what he sees as a widening gap between price and performance. Brinkman emphasizes that estimates for revenue, earnings, and free cash flow have all declined materially over time, yet Tesla shares remain elevated relative to where those expectations once stood. The analyst believes investors are assigning too much value to long-dated opportunities, while overlooking weaker projections in the years ahead. "We continue to see large ~60% downside to our $145 December 2026 price target and advise investors approach TSLA shares with a high degree of caution," Brinkman warns. Brinkman also questions whether optimism around Tesla's future initiatives can justify current pricing, particularly given execution risks and the time required for those efforts to translate into meaningful returns. According to the analyst, the valuation implies a future where Tesla delivers far stronger results beyond this decade. That assumption, in his view, leaves little room for error, especially as competition builds across autonomous driving and robotics markets. Another concern centers on cash flow dynamics, where rising inventory levels and heavier spending could weigh on financial flexibility. Brinkman highlights the surge in unsold vehicles as a sign of imbalance, reinforcing his cautious stance. All told, Brinkman sees a significant disconnect between expectations and current operating trends, reinforcing his Underweight (i.e., Sell) rating on Tesla shares. (To watch Brinkman's track record, click here) The broader Street, however, paints a more balanced picture. Based on 30 analyst ratings, Tesla claims a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus, with 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and 6 Sells. The average price target stands at $413.89, implying about 7% upside from current levels. 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