--- title: "Musk Confirms: Cybercab Production Underway, Ramp-Up Starts Slow Then Accelerates" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/283981022.md" description: "Tesla has officially launched mass production of the Cybercab. Musk stated that due to new supply chain constraints, initial output will be 'very slow,' with exponential growth expected by year-end. Notably, Tesla successfully bypassed the NHTSA annual exemption cap of 2,500 vehicles through its self-certification pathway, clearing regulatory hurdles for expansion. However, unsupervised autonomous driving is not yet ready, and technical bottlenecks remain the biggest variable for commercialization" datetime: "2026-04-24T10:20:30.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283981022.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283981022.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283981022.md) --- # Musk Confirms: Cybercab Production Underway, Ramp-Up Starts Slow Then Accelerates Tesla has pressed the button on mass production of the Cybercab. On April 24, Musk announced on X that Cybercab production has officially commenced. Previously, he confirmed during the Q1 2026 earnings call that the model had begun production at the Texas Gigafactory. Musk simultaneously warned that **due to new supply chain constraints, initial output will be 'very slow,' with exponential growth expected only by the end of the year.** Notably, Tesla circumvented the U.S. regulatory limit on the annual production volume of autonomous vehicles through a compliant self-certification process. Lars Moravy, Vice President of Vehicle Engineering, explicitly stated that the Cybercab is not subject to the NHTSA annual exemption cap of 2,500 autonomous vehicles, clearing regulatory obstacles for future large-scale production expansion. However, the core selling point of this steering-wheel-less model—unsupervised autonomous driving—has not yet been achieved. Musk expects unsupervised full self-driving to be rolled out to user vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year, but given Tesla's long history of delays in FSD timelines, the core uncertainty facing investors remains. ## Production Ramp-Up: S-Curve Initial Phase, Acceleration Before Year-End The first steering-wheel-less Cybercab rolled off the line in February this year, but continuous production did not officially start until this month. Musk admitted that with a new product combined with a completely new supply chain, the production ramp-up would follow a typical "slow then fast" rhythm. He stated: "You should expect the initial output of Cybercab and Semi to be very slow, but then it will accelerate and grow exponentially by the end of the year." Currently, Tesla is producing both the steering-wheel-less version and the version equipped with a steering wheel. **Musk positions Cybercab as Tesla's core model for long-term high-volume sales**, citing that "90% of driving miles involve only one or two passengers," and stating that in the future, "the vast majority of production should be Cybercab." Cybercab is Tesla's driverless taxi, featuring a two-door coupe design with falcon-wing doors. Semi is Tesla's electric semi-truck designed for freight scenarios. ## Bypassing NHTSA Volume Cap via Self-Certification **By leveraging the self-certification pathway, Tesla successfully bypassed the NHTSA annual exemption cap for autonomous vehicles, clearing regulatory obstacles for large-scale Cybercab production expansion.** NHTSA has an exemption procedure for vehicles that do not comply with the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), with each exemption capped at an annual production of 2,500 units. Companies like Waymo and Cruise have historically been bound by this limit, hindering their capacity expansion. According to media reports, when asked if the 2,500-unit cap applied to Cybercab, Vehicle Engineering Vice President Lars Moravy simply replied: "No." This confidence stems from Cybercab's design logic. The model was designed from the outset to fully comply with current FMVSS standards, meaning no exemption application is required; it follows the same self-certification process as the Toyota Camry or Ford F-150. Drone footage from Giga Texas shows that Cybercabs already off the line are affixed with federal compliance stickers covering safety, bumper, and anti-theft standards. The practical significance of this path is: even if the SELF DRIVE bill currently under review by the U.S. Congress raises the exemption cap from 2,500 to 90,000 units, it would be largely irrelevant to Tesla— **Cybercab's production expansion has never been constrained by the exemption cap.** ## Three Major Bottlenecks Constraining Cybercab Commercialization **Although obstacles to capacity expansion have been cleared, the technological foundation of the Cybercab business model remains far from solid.** This model relies entirely on unsupervised autonomous driving technology, which is not yet ready. Musk admitted during the earnings call that software still has issues, including vehicles being "afraid to move" or getting stuck in infinite loops. According to media reports, the accident rate for Tesla's existing supervised Robotaxi fleet is approximately four times that of human drivers—one accident every 57,000 miles, compared to a baseline of one accident every 229,000 miles for human drivers. Meanwhile, the Cybercab project has experienced significant management turnover since February: Vehicle Project Manager Victor Nechita resigned days after the first mass-produced vehicle rolled off the line; OTA and Ride-hailing Infrastructure Director Thomas Dmytryk left after 11 years; and Head of Final Assembly Mark Lupkey followed suit in March. Currently, there are no original project managers remaining for any of Tesla's mass-produced models. Before unsupervised autonomous driving is deployed, Cybercab can only be used for Tesla's geofenced Robotaxi pilot projects with limited scale, and the actual deployment space for mass-produced vehicles remains constrained. ### Related Stocks - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [XNCR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XNCR.US.md) - [6962.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/6962.JP.md) - [KKL.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KKL.AU.md) - [NA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NA.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [GM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GM.US.md) - [TM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TM.US.md) - [7203.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/7203.JP.md) - [F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/F.US.md) - [TOYOF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TOYOF.US.md) - [F-B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/F-B.US.md) - [F-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/F-C.US.md) - [F-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/F-D.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [The Musk Premium Is Getting Tested—And Tesla's Earnings Call Showed Why](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283839859.md) - [French prosecutors await Musk in X probe, unclear if he will comply](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283362398.md) - [Tesla profits rose in the first quarter as Musk teases debut of new Roadster](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283763108.md) - [Elon Musk pushes unsupervised FSD for consumer Teslas — again](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283731332.md) - [Tesla Q1 Earnings Are Due April 22. 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