---
title: "The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29th on Polymarket has dropped to 16%, a 39% decrease in 24 hours."
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284092186.md"
description: "The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29th has dropped to 16%, a decrease of 39% in just 24 hours, according to Polymarket data. A formal meeting is defined as one held by authorized representatives, excluding informal encounters. Odaily Seer monitors these predictions continuously."
datetime: "2026-04-25T23:30:00.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284092186.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284092186.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284092186.md)
---

# The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29th on Polymarket has dropped to 16%, a 39% decrease in 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket data shows that the predicted probability of a "US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 29th" has fallen to 16%, a brief drop of 39%. Market rules define a meeting as "yes" if US and Iranian representatives hold a formal diplomatic meeting before 11:59 PM ET on April 29th. A diplomatic meeting is defined as a formal meeting between representatives of both sides in an official capacity and with authorization, including indirect face-to-face meetings through mediators, but excluding brief greetings or chance encounters for non-diplomatic purposes. The meeting must be in-person and recognized by the government or reported by credible media. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.

### Related Stocks

- [SEER.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SEER.US.md)

## Related News & Research

- [BUZZ-Street View: Meta spends big on AI as ad engine keeps humming](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284725517.md)
- [Why Intel Stock (INTC) Is Up Today – and Why One Investor Warns Against Chasing the Rally](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284673739.md)
- [Qualcomm quarterly forecast underwhelms, but CEO says worst of memory crunch over](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284633920.md)
- [Palantir Has 'Golden Path' To Become Trillion-Dollar AI Giant, Dan Ives Says](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284629278.md)
- [Seagate Assuages OpenAI Fears; Non-AI Semi Demand Rising; 5 Earnings Ahead Will Determine Market's Fate](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284639144.md)