--- title: "Strong Trading Performance and Limited Production Disruptions Help BP Outperform Exxon Mobil" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284276282.md" description: "BP PLC-Spons disclosed that its trading performance is expected to be \"exceptionally strong,\" with limited impact on its oil production from Middle East conflicts. In contrast, approximately one-fifth of Exxon Mobil's global production is constrained by the Strait of Hormuz. Since the outbreak of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, BP's stock price has risen by about 20%, while Exxon Mobil's has fallen by roughly 1%. BP is scheduled to release its financial results this Tuesday" datetime: "2026-04-27T22:31:32.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284276282.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284276282.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284276282.md) --- # Strong Trading Performance and Limited Production Disruptions Help BP Outperform Exxon Mobil BP PLC-Spons, which has long lagged behind its peers, has leveraged "exceptionally strong" trading profits driven by the Iran conflict to become the best-performing stock among major oil companies. Meanwhile, the former industry benchmark, Exxon Mobil, has underperformed due to a significant portion of its capacity being trapped within the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, BP's stock price has cumulatively risen by approximately 20%, while Exxon Mobil's has declined by about 1%. The core reason for this divergence in performance is: **BP disclosed this month that it expects its trading performance to be "exceptionally strong," with limited impact on its oil production from the Middle East conflict;** **In contrast, approximately one-fifth of Exxon Mobil's global production is constrained by the Strait of Hormuz, and its stake in a large integrated liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility was hit by Iranian missiles, with repairs potentially taking several years.** Although international oil prices have surged more than 45% during the conflict, breaking through $100 per barrel, oil company stocks have generally failed to rise in tandem. The crude oil futures curve has shown a significant downward shift, reflecting market expectations that the strait will eventually reopen. **BP will release its financial results this Tuesday, followed by France's TotalEnergies SE on Wednesday. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are scheduled to report on Friday, while Shell is set to announce its results on May 7.** According to analyst data compiled by Bloomberg, the combined profits of the five supermajor companies are expected to reach $19.2 billion this quarter, representing an increase of approximately 3% from the previous quarter. ## US Giants Hit by Production Disruptions, BP Shines in Trading The impact of this geopolitical conflict on production varies significantly among companies. According to data from Raymond James, Exxon's production in the Gulf region affected by the war is about five times that of Chevron. Approximately one-fifth of Exxon's global production is trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron also faces production losses of up to 6% in the first quarter, but a significant portion stems from a fire at the large Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, which is not directly related to the war. In terms of trading strategies, there are clear differences between European and American oil majors. European companies possess trading desks far larger than their US counterparts, giving them stronger arbitrage capabilities during periods of intense price volatility. **BP disclosed this month that it expects its trading performance to be "exceptionally strong," while Shell and TotalEnergies have also signaled earnings that exceed expectations.** In contrast, Exxon and Chevron have consistently adopted a conservative stance on trading risks, typically hedging against price fluctuations with derivatives after cargo shipment. **This strategy has resulted in combined mark-to-market losses of nearly $7 billion for the two US companies in the first quarter.** ## Low Valuation Coupled with Expectations of Debt Improvement BP's outperformance against its peers is also partly attributed to its **low valuation, as stocks with lower valuations often exhibit greater elasticity.** BP suspended its share buyback program earlier this year. Analysts expect the company to use this cash flow more aggressively to repay debt, thereby providing greater financial flexibility for future expansion in oil and gas exploration and development. According to Jason Gabelman, an analyst at TD Cowen, Chevron may increase its buyback volume by 25% to $3.8 billion this quarter and plans to further ramp up spending within the year. Exxon is expected to maintain its quarterly buyback scale at $5 billion, still leading the five supermajors. Although Exxon has the largest exposure in the Middle East, its oil and gas growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana, along with businesses in petrochemicals and helium, provides a buffer. ## New CEO Returns to Fossil Fuel Strategy, Market Anticipates a Turnaround O'Neill, who previously worked at Exxon for over twenty years, has accelerated the implementation of BP's return to a fossil fuel strategy since taking charge. In March this year, BP received approval from the Trump administration for its first new project in the Gulf of Mexico since the 2010 "Deepwater Horizon" disaster. At the same time, the company acquired interests in offshore blocks in Namibia, positioning itself in one of the world's top exploration hotspots. James West, an energy analyst at Melius Research, pointed out that there are still significant differences among individual stocks in the short term: **"Exxon has some capacity stranded inside the strait, while BP benefits from turnaround expectations driven by its new CEO."** However, analysts caution that BP still faces challenges in translating its short-term lead into sustained outperformance. Joshua Stone, head of European energy equity research at UBS, wrote in a report: "A 'higher-for-longer' oil price environment is undoubtedly favorable for BP, but there is still substantial work to be done to rebuild investor confidence." This week, BP will be the first to release its quarterly results on Tuesday, followed by TotalEnergies on Wednesday. Exxon and Chevron are scheduled to report on Friday, while Shell will announce its results on May 7. 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